Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Pereira, João
Data de Publicação: 2019
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16924
Resumo: We calibrate an endogenous overlapping generations model of a small open economy to study the effects of population aging and population decline. In an invariant scenario public and foreign debt explode and GDP growth decreases markedly. Among the tested policies to control public finances, the best for the individuals is an increase in the retirement age, which needs to increase 6 years, a similar magnitude as the increase in life expectancy at birth. However, this increase has to happen before the increase in life expectancy materializes itself. Aging has a stronger negative impact on public debt than population decline. We find a positive, but quantitatively modest, behavioral effect in reaction to a higher life expectancy with an impact on the GDP growth rate of only 2 basis points.
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spelling Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortalityagingOpen EconomyTime AllocationPAYG pensionsDebtWe calibrate an endogenous overlapping generations model of a small open economy to study the effects of population aging and population decline. In an invariant scenario public and foreign debt explode and GDP growth decreases markedly. Among the tested policies to control public finances, the best for the individuals is an increase in the retirement age, which needs to increase 6 years, a similar magnitude as the increase in life expectancy at birth. However, this increase has to happen before the increase in life expectancy materializes itself. Aging has a stronger negative impact on public debt than population decline. We find a positive, but quantitatively modest, behavioral effect in reaction to a higher life expectancy with an impact on the GDP growth rate of only 2 basis points.ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and MathematicsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaPereira, João2019-01-17T16:00:32Z2019-012019-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16924engPereira, João (2019). "Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working papers nº 063 - 20192184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:46:39Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/16924Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:02:15.257843Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality
title Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality
spellingShingle Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality
Pereira, João
aging
Open Economy
Time Allocation
PAYG pensions
Debt
title_short Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality
title_full Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality
title_fullStr Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality
title_full_unstemmed Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality
title_sort Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality
author Pereira, João
author_facet Pereira, João
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Pereira, João
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv aging
Open Economy
Time Allocation
PAYG pensions
Debt
topic aging
Open Economy
Time Allocation
PAYG pensions
Debt
description We calibrate an endogenous overlapping generations model of a small open economy to study the effects of population aging and population decline. In an invariant scenario public and foreign debt explode and GDP growth decreases markedly. Among the tested policies to control public finances, the best for the individuals is an increase in the retirement age, which needs to increase 6 years, a similar magnitude as the increase in life expectancy at birth. However, this increase has to happen before the increase in life expectancy materializes itself. Aging has a stronger negative impact on public debt than population decline. We find a positive, but quantitatively modest, behavioral effect in reaction to a higher life expectancy with an impact on the GDP growth rate of only 2 basis points.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-01-17T16:00:32Z
2019-01
2019-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16924
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16924
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Pereira, João (2019). "Demographic changes in a small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working papers nº 063 - 2019
2184-108X
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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