Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
| Autor(a) principal: | |
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| Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
| Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
| Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/8064 |
Resumo: | Top 10th climate paper in 2021 for news and social media attention, by Carbon Brief (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the-climate-papers-most-featured-in-the-media-in-2021/) |
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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling studyClimate ChangeNon-optimal Ambient TemperaturesMortalityBurden of MortalityModelling StudyDeterminantes da Saúde e da DoençaAvaliação do RiscoTop 10th climate paper in 2021 for news and social media attention, by Carbon Brief (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the-climate-papers-most-featured-in-the-media-in-2021/)Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios.This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP2000581). QZ was supported by the Program of Qilu Young Scholars of Shandong University, Jinan, China; SL by an Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (number APP1109193); YG by career development fellowships of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (number APP 1163693); JK and AU by the Czech Science Foundation (project number 20–28560S); NS by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776); S-CP and YLG by the Ministry of Science and Technology (Taiwan; MOST 109–2621-M-002–021); YH by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF15S11412) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency; MdSZSC and PHNS by the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); ST by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (grant number 18411951600); HO and EI by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (IUT34–17); JM by a fellowship of Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnlogia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016); AG and FS by the Medical Research Council UK (grant ID MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant ID NE/R009384/1), and the EU’s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655); AS, SR, and FdD by the EU’s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655); and VH by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant ID PCIN-2017–046).ElsevierRepositório Científico do Instituto Nacional de SaúdeZhao, QiGuo, YumingYe, TingtingGasparrini, AntonioTong, ShiluOvercenco, AlaUrban, AlešSchneider, AlexandraEntezari, AlirezaVicedo-Cabrera, Ana MariaZanobetti, AntonellaAnalitis, AntonisZeka, ArianaTobias, AurelioNunes, BaltazarAlahmad, BarrakArmstrong, BenForsberg, BertilPan, Shih-ChunÍñiguez, CarmenAmeling, CarolineDe la Cruz Valencia, CésarÅström, ChristoferHouthuijs, DannyDung, Do VanRoyé, DominicIndermitte, EneLavigne, EricMayvaneh, FatemehAcquaotta, Fiorellade'Donato, FrancescaDi Ruscio, FrancescoSera, FrancescoCarrasco-Escobar, GabrielKan, HaidongOrru, HansKim, HoHolobaca, Iulian-HoriaKyselý, JanMadureira, JoanaSchwartz, JoelJaakkola, Jouni J.K.Katsouyanni, KleaHurtado Diaz, MagaliRagettli, Martina S.Hashizume, MasahiroPascal, Mathildede Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, MichelineValdés Ortega, NicolásRyti, NiiloScovronick, NoahMichelozzi, PaolaMatus Correa, PatriciaGoodman, PatrickNascimento Saldiva, Paulo HilarioAbrutzky, RosanaOsorio, SamuelRao, ShilpaFratianni, SimonaDang, Tran NgocColistro, ValentinaHuber, VeronikaLee, WhanheeSeposo, XerxesHonda, YasushiGuo, Yue LeonBell, Michelle L.Li, Shanshan2022-07-05T16:11:08Z2021-072021-07-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/8064engLancet Planet Health. 2021 Jul;5(7):e415-e425. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-42542-519610.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-4info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-20T15:42:25Zoai:repositorio.insa.pt:10400.18/8064Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:42:49.349117Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study |
| title |
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study |
| spellingShingle |
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study Zhao, Qi Climate Change Non-optimal Ambient Temperatures Mortality Burden of Mortality Modelling Study Determinantes da Saúde e da Doença Avaliação do Risco |
| title_short |
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study |
| title_full |
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study |
| title_fullStr |
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study |
| title_sort |
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study |
| author |
Zhao, Qi |
| author_facet |
Zhao, Qi Guo, Yuming Ye, Tingting Gasparrini, Antonio Tong, Shilu Overcenco, Ala Urban, Aleš Schneider, Alexandra Entezari, Alireza Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Zanobetti, Antonella Analitis, Antonis Zeka, Ariana Tobias, Aurelio Nunes, Baltazar Alahmad, Barrak Armstrong, Ben Forsberg, Bertil Pan, Shih-Chun Íñiguez, Carmen Ameling, Caroline De la Cruz Valencia, César Åström, Christofer Houthuijs, Danny Dung, Do Van Royé, Dominic Indermitte, Ene Lavigne, Eric Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Acquaotta, Fiorella de'Donato, Francesca Di Ruscio, Francesco Sera, Francesco Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel Kan, Haidong Orru, Hans Kim, Ho Holobaca, Iulian-Horia Kyselý, Jan Madureira, Joana Schwartz, Joel Jaakkola, Jouni J.K. Katsouyanni, Klea Hurtado Diaz, Magali Ragettli, Martina S. Hashizume, Masahiro Pascal, Mathilde de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline Valdés Ortega, Nicolás Ryti, Niilo Scovronick, Noah Michelozzi, Paola Matus Correa, Patricia Goodman, Patrick Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Abrutzky, Rosana Osorio, Samuel Rao, Shilpa Fratianni, Simona Dang, Tran Ngoc Colistro, Valentina Huber, Veronika Lee, Whanhee Seposo, Xerxes Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Bell, Michelle L. Li, Shanshan |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Guo, Yuming Ye, Tingting Gasparrini, Antonio Tong, Shilu Overcenco, Ala Urban, Aleš Schneider, Alexandra Entezari, Alireza Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Zanobetti, Antonella Analitis, Antonis Zeka, Ariana Tobias, Aurelio Nunes, Baltazar Alahmad, Barrak Armstrong, Ben Forsberg, Bertil Pan, Shih-Chun Íñiguez, Carmen Ameling, Caroline De la Cruz Valencia, César Åström, Christofer Houthuijs, Danny Dung, Do Van Royé, Dominic Indermitte, Ene Lavigne, Eric Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Acquaotta, Fiorella de'Donato, Francesca Di Ruscio, Francesco Sera, Francesco Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel Kan, Haidong Orru, Hans Kim, Ho Holobaca, Iulian-Horia Kyselý, Jan Madureira, Joana Schwartz, Joel Jaakkola, Jouni J.K. Katsouyanni, Klea Hurtado Diaz, Magali Ragettli, Martina S. Hashizume, Masahiro Pascal, Mathilde de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline Valdés Ortega, Nicolás Ryti, Niilo Scovronick, Noah Michelozzi, Paola Matus Correa, Patricia Goodman, Patrick Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Abrutzky, Rosana Osorio, Samuel Rao, Shilpa Fratianni, Simona Dang, Tran Ngoc Colistro, Valentina Huber, Veronika Lee, Whanhee Seposo, Xerxes Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Bell, Michelle L. Li, Shanshan |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico do Instituto Nacional de Saúde |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Zhao, Qi Guo, Yuming Ye, Tingting Gasparrini, Antonio Tong, Shilu Overcenco, Ala Urban, Aleš Schneider, Alexandra Entezari, Alireza Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Zanobetti, Antonella Analitis, Antonis Zeka, Ariana Tobias, Aurelio Nunes, Baltazar Alahmad, Barrak Armstrong, Ben Forsberg, Bertil Pan, Shih-Chun Íñiguez, Carmen Ameling, Caroline De la Cruz Valencia, César Åström, Christofer Houthuijs, Danny Dung, Do Van Royé, Dominic Indermitte, Ene Lavigne, Eric Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Acquaotta, Fiorella de'Donato, Francesca Di Ruscio, Francesco Sera, Francesco Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel Kan, Haidong Orru, Hans Kim, Ho Holobaca, Iulian-Horia Kyselý, Jan Madureira, Joana Schwartz, Joel Jaakkola, Jouni J.K. Katsouyanni, Klea Hurtado Diaz, Magali Ragettli, Martina S. Hashizume, Masahiro Pascal, Mathilde de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline Valdés Ortega, Nicolás Ryti, Niilo Scovronick, Noah Michelozzi, Paola Matus Correa, Patricia Goodman, Patrick Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Abrutzky, Rosana Osorio, Samuel Rao, Shilpa Fratianni, Simona Dang, Tran Ngoc Colistro, Valentina Huber, Veronika Lee, Whanhee Seposo, Xerxes Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Bell, Michelle L. Li, Shanshan |
| dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Climate Change Non-optimal Ambient Temperatures Mortality Burden of Mortality Modelling Study Determinantes da Saúde e da Doença Avaliação do Risco |
| topic |
Climate Change Non-optimal Ambient Temperatures Mortality Burden of Mortality Modelling Study Determinantes da Saúde e da Doença Avaliação do Risco |
| description |
Top 10th climate paper in 2021 for news and social media attention, by Carbon Brief (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the-climate-papers-most-featured-in-the-media-in-2021/) |
| publishDate |
2021 |
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2021-07 2021-07-01T00:00:00Z 2022-07-05T16:11:08Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/8064 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/8064 |
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eng |
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eng |
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Lancet Planet Health. 2021 Jul;5(7):e415-e425. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-4 2542-5196 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-4 |
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Elsevier |
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Elsevier |
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