Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Pinotti, Francesco
Data de Publicação: 2024
Outros Autores: Giovanetti, Marta, Lima, Maricelia Maia de, Cerqueira, Erenilde Marques de, Alcantara, Luiz C. J., Gupta, Sunetra, Recker, Mario, Lourenço, José
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/43943
Resumo: In 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.
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spelling Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in BrazilIn 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica PortuguesaPinotti, FrancescoGiovanetti, MartaLima, Maricelia Maia deCerqueira, Erenilde Marques deAlcantara, Luiz C. J.Gupta, SunetraRecker, MarioLourenço, José2024-02-14T10:22:14Z2024-122024-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/43943eng2041-172310.1038/s41467-024-44799-x85182694062PMC1079994538245500001146298600008info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-02-20T01:32:45Zoai:repositorio.ucp.pt:10400.14/43943Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:39:00.484486Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil
title Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil
spellingShingle Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil
Pinotti, Francesco
title_short Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil
title_full Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil
title_fullStr Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil
title_sort Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil
author Pinotti, Francesco
author_facet Pinotti, Francesco
Giovanetti, Marta
Lima, Maricelia Maia de
Cerqueira, Erenilde Marques de
Alcantara, Luiz C. J.
Gupta, Sunetra
Recker, Mario
Lourenço, José
author_role author
author2 Giovanetti, Marta
Lima, Maricelia Maia de
Cerqueira, Erenilde Marques de
Alcantara, Luiz C. J.
Gupta, Sunetra
Recker, Mario
Lourenço, José
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Pinotti, Francesco
Giovanetti, Marta
Lima, Maricelia Maia de
Cerqueira, Erenilde Marques de
Alcantara, Luiz C. J.
Gupta, Sunetra
Recker, Mario
Lourenço, José
description In 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-02-14T10:22:14Z
2024-12
2024-12-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/43943
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/43943
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 2041-1723
10.1038/s41467-024-44799-x
85182694062
PMC10799945
38245500
001146298600008
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