Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2024 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/43943 |
Resumo: | In 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions. |
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Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in BrazilIn 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica PortuguesaPinotti, FrancescoGiovanetti, MartaLima, Maricelia Maia deCerqueira, Erenilde Marques deAlcantara, Luiz C. J.Gupta, SunetraRecker, MarioLourenço, José2024-02-14T10:22:14Z2024-122024-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/43943eng2041-172310.1038/s41467-024-44799-x85182694062PMC1079994538245500001146298600008info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-02-20T01:32:45Zoai:repositorio.ucp.pt:10400.14/43943Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:39:00.484486Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil |
title |
Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil Pinotti, Francesco |
title_short |
Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil |
title_full |
Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil |
title_sort |
Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil |
author |
Pinotti, Francesco |
author_facet |
Pinotti, Francesco Giovanetti, Marta Lima, Maricelia Maia de Cerqueira, Erenilde Marques de Alcantara, Luiz C. J. Gupta, Sunetra Recker, Mario Lourenço, José |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Giovanetti, Marta Lima, Maricelia Maia de Cerqueira, Erenilde Marques de Alcantara, Luiz C. J. Gupta, Sunetra Recker, Mario Lourenço, José |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pinotti, Francesco Giovanetti, Marta Lima, Maricelia Maia de Cerqueira, Erenilde Marques de Alcantara, Luiz C. J. Gupta, Sunetra Recker, Mario Lourenço, José |
description |
In 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions. |
publishDate |
2024 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2024-02-14T10:22:14Z 2024-12 2024-12-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/43943 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/43943 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
2041-1723 10.1038/s41467-024-44799-x 85182694062 PMC10799945 38245500 001146298600008 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799137439977046016 |