An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2024 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30959 |
Resumo: | This paper investigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomic variables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations, and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects, leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales. On the financial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders. |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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spelling |
An economic policy uncertainty index for PortugalEconomic uncertaintyPolicy uncertaintyUncertainty shocksProxy-SVARCorrelation restrictionsTextual analysisThis paper investigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomic variables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations, and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects, leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales. On the financial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders.ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics)Repositório da Universidade de LisboaMorão, Hugo2024-05-08T14:36:18Z2024-052024-05-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30959engMorão, Hugo (2024). "An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal". REM Working paper series, nº 0322/20242184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-11-20T19:31:52Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10400.5/30959Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openairemluisa.alvim@gmail.comopendoar:71602024-11-20T19:31:52Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal |
title |
An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal |
spellingShingle |
An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal Morão, Hugo Economic uncertainty Policy uncertainty Uncertainty shocks Proxy-SVAR Correlation restrictions Textual analysis |
title_short |
An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal |
title_full |
An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal |
title_fullStr |
An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal |
title_full_unstemmed |
An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal |
title_sort |
An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal |
author |
Morão, Hugo |
author_facet |
Morão, Hugo |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Morão, Hugo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Economic uncertainty Policy uncertainty Uncertainty shocks Proxy-SVAR Correlation restrictions Textual analysis |
topic |
Economic uncertainty Policy uncertainty Uncertainty shocks Proxy-SVAR Correlation restrictions Textual analysis |
description |
This paper investigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomic variables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations, and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects, leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales. On the financial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders. |
publishDate |
2024 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2024-05-08T14:36:18Z 2024-05 2024-05-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30959 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30959 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Morão, Hugo (2024). "An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal". REM Working paper series, nº 0322/2024 2184-108X |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics) |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics) |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
mluisa.alvim@gmail.com |
_version_ |
1817549537672167424 |