An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Morão, Hugo
Data de Publicação: 2024
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30959
Resumo: This paper investigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomic variables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations, and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects, leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales. On the financial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders.
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spelling An economic policy uncertainty index for PortugalEconomic uncertaintyPolicy uncertaintyUncertainty shocksProxy-SVARCorrelation restrictionsTextual analysisThis paper investigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomic variables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations, and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects, leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales. On the financial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders.ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics)Repositório da Universidade de LisboaMorão, Hugo2024-05-08T14:36:18Z2024-052024-05-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30959engMorão, Hugo (2024). "An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal". REM Working paper series, nº 0322/20242184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-11-20T19:31:52Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10400.5/30959Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openairemluisa.alvim@gmail.comopendoar:71602024-11-20T19:31:52Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal
title An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal
spellingShingle An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal
Morão, Hugo
Economic uncertainty
Policy uncertainty
Uncertainty shocks
Proxy-SVAR
Correlation restrictions
Textual analysis
title_short An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal
title_full An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal
title_fullStr An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal
title_full_unstemmed An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal
title_sort An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal
author Morão, Hugo
author_facet Morão, Hugo
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Morão, Hugo
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Economic uncertainty
Policy uncertainty
Uncertainty shocks
Proxy-SVAR
Correlation restrictions
Textual analysis
topic Economic uncertainty
Policy uncertainty
Uncertainty shocks
Proxy-SVAR
Correlation restrictions
Textual analysis
description This paper investigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomic variables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations, and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects, leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales. On the financial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-05-08T14:36:18Z
2024-05
2024-05-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30959
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30959
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Morão, Hugo (2024). "An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal". REM Working paper series, nº 0322/2024
2184-108X
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv mluisa.alvim@gmail.com
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