Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/27929 |
Resumo: | What is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as climate shocks tend to be ubiquitous, but with opposing effects simultaneously on demand and supply. The extent of which climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country’s fiscal and institutional capacity to support recovery. In this paper, we use the local projection method to empirically investigate how climate shocks, as measured by climate-induced natural disasters, influence inflation and economic growth in a large panel of countries over the period 1970–2020. The results shows that both inflation and real GDP growth respond significantly but also differently in terms of direction and magnitude to different types of disasters caused by climate change. We split the full sample of countries into income groups—advanced economies and developing countries—and find a striking contrast in the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth according to income level, state of the economy, and fiscal space when the shock hits. |
id |
RCAP_a63139c5128cfd4eba6f8330c921f874 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/27929 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growthClimate changenatural disastersinflationgrowthlocal projectionspanel dataWhat is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as climate shocks tend to be ubiquitous, but with opposing effects simultaneously on demand and supply. The extent of which climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country’s fiscal and institutional capacity to support recovery. In this paper, we use the local projection method to empirically investigate how climate shocks, as measured by climate-induced natural disasters, influence inflation and economic growth in a large panel of countries over the period 1970–2020. The results shows that both inflation and real GDP growth respond significantly but also differently in terms of direction and magnitude to different types of disasters caused by climate change. We split the full sample of countries into income groups—advanced economies and developing countries—and find a striking contrast in the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth according to income level, state of the economy, and fiscal space when the shock hits.ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and MathematicsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaCevik, SerhanJalles, João Tovar2023-06-20T13:46:13Z2023-062023-06-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/27929engCevik, Serhan e João Tovar Jalles (2023). "Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth". REM Working paper series, nº 0276/20232184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-06-25T01:30:48Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/27929Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:01:30.441120Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
title |
Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
spellingShingle |
Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth Cevik, Serhan Climate change natural disasters inflation growth local projections panel data |
title_short |
Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
title_full |
Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
title_fullStr |
Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
title_full_unstemmed |
Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
title_sort |
Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
author |
Cevik, Serhan |
author_facet |
Cevik, Serhan Jalles, João Tovar |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Jalles, João Tovar |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Cevik, Serhan Jalles, João Tovar |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Climate change natural disasters inflation growth local projections panel data |
topic |
Climate change natural disasters inflation growth local projections panel data |
description |
What is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as climate shocks tend to be ubiquitous, but with opposing effects simultaneously on demand and supply. The extent of which climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country’s fiscal and institutional capacity to support recovery. In this paper, we use the local projection method to empirically investigate how climate shocks, as measured by climate-induced natural disasters, influence inflation and economic growth in a large panel of countries over the period 1970–2020. The results shows that both inflation and real GDP growth respond significantly but also differently in terms of direction and magnitude to different types of disasters caused by climate change. We split the full sample of countries into income groups—advanced economies and developing countries—and find a striking contrast in the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth according to income level, state of the economy, and fiscal space when the shock hits. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-06-20T13:46:13Z 2023-06 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/27929 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/27929 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Cevik, Serhan e João Tovar Jalles (2023). "Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth". REM Working paper series, nº 0276/2023 2184-108X |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799131683053633536 |