Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Area
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16023 |
Resumo: | In this paper, we decompose the current account (CA) balance in 19 Euro area countries into cyclical and non-cyclical components. For the period 1999:Q1 to 2015:Q4, we compute income elasticities of imports and of exports via an alternative novel and improved approach by running time-varying coefficient models country-by-country. Then, in a panel set-up (and controlling for country-invariant characteristics), we uncover that terms of trade have a positive effect on both the cyclical and noncyclical components of the CA, while the Global Financial Crisis, compensation of employees and the employment level have a negative effect on the cyclical component. Moreover, the crisis had a greater impact on the cyclical component of the CA due to movements in the real effective exchange rate. In addition, we find a negative effect of the crisis on the cyclical component of the CA for countries that received financial assistance from the European Union, notably Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Latvia. |
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Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Areacurrent account cyclicalityfinancial marketstime-varying coefficientsIn this paper, we decompose the current account (CA) balance in 19 Euro area countries into cyclical and non-cyclical components. For the period 1999:Q1 to 2015:Q4, we compute income elasticities of imports and of exports via an alternative novel and improved approach by running time-varying coefficient models country-by-country. Then, in a panel set-up (and controlling for country-invariant characteristics), we uncover that terms of trade have a positive effect on both the cyclical and noncyclical components of the CA, while the Global Financial Crisis, compensation of employees and the employment level have a negative effect on the cyclical component. Moreover, the crisis had a greater impact on the cyclical component of the CA due to movements in the real effective exchange rate. In addition, we find a negative effect of the crisis on the cyclical component of the CA for countries that received financial assistance from the European Union, notably Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Latvia.ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and MathematicsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioJalles, João2018-10-01T12:15:53Z2018-062018-06-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16023engAfonso, António e João Jalles (2018). "Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Area". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper nº 042 - 20182184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:45:54Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/16023Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:01:31.945844Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Area |
title |
Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Area |
spellingShingle |
Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Area Afonso, António current account cyclicality financial markets time-varying coefficients |
title_short |
Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Area |
title_full |
Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Area |
title_fullStr |
Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Area |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Area |
title_sort |
Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Area |
author |
Afonso, António |
author_facet |
Afonso, António Jalles, João |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Jalles, João |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António Jalles, João |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
current account cyclicality financial markets time-varying coefficients |
topic |
current account cyclicality financial markets time-varying coefficients |
description |
In this paper, we decompose the current account (CA) balance in 19 Euro area countries into cyclical and non-cyclical components. For the period 1999:Q1 to 2015:Q4, we compute income elasticities of imports and of exports via an alternative novel and improved approach by running time-varying coefficient models country-by-country. Then, in a panel set-up (and controlling for country-invariant characteristics), we uncover that terms of trade have a positive effect on both the cyclical and noncyclical components of the CA, while the Global Financial Crisis, compensation of employees and the employment level have a negative effect on the cyclical component. Moreover, the crisis had a greater impact on the cyclical component of the CA due to movements in the real effective exchange rate. In addition, we find a negative effect of the crisis on the cyclical component of the CA for countries that received financial assistance from the European Union, notably Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Latvia. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-10-01T12:15:53Z 2018-06 2018-06-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16023 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António e João Jalles (2018). "Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality : evidence from the Euro Area". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper nº 042 - 2018 2184-108X |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799131104066666496 |