Empirical study on the impact of intermediate target of monetary policy on real estate market prices in China

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Chen Yitong
Data de Publicação: 2021
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10071/23099
Resumo: In recent years, China's real estate market prices have been rising continuously, with the 9,310.28 yuan/m2 of average price of commercial housing and 9,287 yuan/m2 of residential housing by 2019. The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry. Thus, the Chinese government began to consider whether the intermediary target of monetary policy has an impact on real estate prices. Firstly, this paper reviews and summarizes the literature and related theories on the selection of the intermediary target of monetary policy and the influence of money supply and interest rate on real estate prices. Secondly, based on the review of relevant literature, this paper makes a theoretical analysis and draws a preliminary conclusion: money supply has a positive impact on real estate prices, while interest rates have a negative impact on real estate prices. Thirdly, this study sorts out the actual data of money supply, interest rates and real estate prices of 1996-2019 China and analyzes them in the descriptive perspective. Next, this study chooses the average price of national commercial housing market, M1, M2 and the 30-day weighted average interest rate of interbank lending as the empirical research variables, and carries out processing on these data. Then, it quantifies the impact of monetary policy intermediary target on real estate prices in China. According to the results, both money supply and interest rates, as the intermediary target of monetary policy, will have a long-term effect on real estate prices. Finally, this study put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
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spelling Empirical study on the impact of intermediate target of monetary policy on real estate market prices in ChinaMoney supplyInterest ratesReal estate pricesMonetary policyOferta monetáriaTaxa de juroPreços imobiliáriosPolítica monetáriaIn recent years, China's real estate market prices have been rising continuously, with the 9,310.28 yuan/m2 of average price of commercial housing and 9,287 yuan/m2 of residential housing by 2019. The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry. Thus, the Chinese government began to consider whether the intermediary target of monetary policy has an impact on real estate prices. Firstly, this paper reviews and summarizes the literature and related theories on the selection of the intermediary target of monetary policy and the influence of money supply and interest rate on real estate prices. Secondly, based on the review of relevant literature, this paper makes a theoretical analysis and draws a preliminary conclusion: money supply has a positive impact on real estate prices, while interest rates have a negative impact on real estate prices. Thirdly, this study sorts out the actual data of money supply, interest rates and real estate prices of 1996-2019 China and analyzes them in the descriptive perspective. Next, this study chooses the average price of national commercial housing market, M1, M2 and the 30-day weighted average interest rate of interbank lending as the empirical research variables, and carries out processing on these data. Then, it quantifies the impact of monetary policy intermediary target on real estate prices in China. According to the results, both money supply and interest rates, as the intermediary target of monetary policy, will have a long-term effect on real estate prices. Finally, this study put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.Nos últimos anos, os preços no mercado imobiliário continuaram a aumentar. Em 2019, o preço médio de uma casa comercial foi de 9310, 28 yuan/m2, e o preço médio de uma casa foi de 9287 yuan/m2 . A indústria imobiliária é uma indústria de capital intensivo. Por conseguinte, o governo começou a ponderar se os objectivos de intermediação da política monetária teriam um impacto nos preços dos imóveis. Em primeiro lugar, este artigo apresenta uma revisão e um resumo da literatura e das teorias relevantes sobre a escolha dos objetivos de intermediação da política monetária e sobre o impacto da oferta de dinheiro e das taxas de juro nos preços imobiliários. Em segundo lugar, o artigo faz uma análise teórica baseada na análise da literatura relevante e chega à conclusão preliminar de que a oferta de dinheiro tem um efeito positivo sobre os preços da propriedade, enquanto as taxas de juro têm um efeito negativo sobre os preços da propriedade. Em terceiro lugar, os dados reais sobre a oferta monetária, as taxas de juro e os preços imobiliários na china para o período 1996-2019 são analisados a partir de uma perspectiva descritiva. Seguidamente, foram selecionadas como variáveis de estudo empírico o preço médio do mercado nacional de habitação comercial, M1, M2 e a média ponderada das taxas de empréstimo interbancário a 30 dias. Estes dados são então utilizados para quantificar o impacto dos objetivos de intermediação da política monetária nos preços da propriedade na china. Os resultados mostram que tanto a oferta monetária como as taxas de juro, como objectivos de intermediação da política monetária, têm um impacto a longo prazo nos preços imobiliários. Por último, o estudo apresenta propostas políticas correspondentes.2021-09-08T15:02:29Z2021-07-30T00:00:00Z2021-07-302021-05info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10071/23099TID:202763005engChen Yitonginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-09T17:47:10Zoai:repositorio.iscte-iul.pt:10071/23099Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:22:50.863159Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Empirical study on the impact of intermediate target of monetary policy on real estate market prices in China
title Empirical study on the impact of intermediate target of monetary policy on real estate market prices in China
spellingShingle Empirical study on the impact of intermediate target of monetary policy on real estate market prices in China
Chen Yitong
Money supply
Interest rates
Real estate prices
Monetary policy
Oferta monetária
Taxa de juro
Preços imobiliários
Política monetária
title_short Empirical study on the impact of intermediate target of monetary policy on real estate market prices in China
title_full Empirical study on the impact of intermediate target of monetary policy on real estate market prices in China
title_fullStr Empirical study on the impact of intermediate target of monetary policy on real estate market prices in China
title_full_unstemmed Empirical study on the impact of intermediate target of monetary policy on real estate market prices in China
title_sort Empirical study on the impact of intermediate target of monetary policy on real estate market prices in China
author Chen Yitong
author_facet Chen Yitong
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Chen Yitong
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Money supply
Interest rates
Real estate prices
Monetary policy
Oferta monetária
Taxa de juro
Preços imobiliários
Política monetária
topic Money supply
Interest rates
Real estate prices
Monetary policy
Oferta monetária
Taxa de juro
Preços imobiliários
Política monetária
description In recent years, China's real estate market prices have been rising continuously, with the 9,310.28 yuan/m2 of average price of commercial housing and 9,287 yuan/m2 of residential housing by 2019. The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry. Thus, the Chinese government began to consider whether the intermediary target of monetary policy has an impact on real estate prices. Firstly, this paper reviews and summarizes the literature and related theories on the selection of the intermediary target of monetary policy and the influence of money supply and interest rate on real estate prices. Secondly, based on the review of relevant literature, this paper makes a theoretical analysis and draws a preliminary conclusion: money supply has a positive impact on real estate prices, while interest rates have a negative impact on real estate prices. Thirdly, this study sorts out the actual data of money supply, interest rates and real estate prices of 1996-2019 China and analyzes them in the descriptive perspective. Next, this study chooses the average price of national commercial housing market, M1, M2 and the 30-day weighted average interest rate of interbank lending as the empirical research variables, and carries out processing on these data. Then, it quantifies the impact of monetary policy intermediary target on real estate prices in China. According to the results, both money supply and interest rates, as the intermediary target of monetary policy, will have a long-term effect on real estate prices. Finally, this study put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-09-08T15:02:29Z
2021-07-30T00:00:00Z
2021-07-30
2021-05
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10071/23099
TID:202763005
url http://hdl.handle.net/10071/23099
identifier_str_mv TID:202763005
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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