Managing through a pandemic : ex-ante earnings uncertainty and income-decreasing earnings manipulation in 2020

• Autor(a) principal: Carvalho, Leonor Moreira de
• Data de Publicação: 2021
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/35383
• topic: Earnings management; Accruals management; Ex-ante earnings uncertainty; Earnings response coefficients; Earnings surprise; Manipulação de resultados; Acréscimos; Incerteza económica; Coeficientes de resposta de ganhos; Surpresas positivas; Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão

The realization that economic conditions can affect the value-relevance of reported earnings has motivated a series of contextual studies in the field of earnings management. Less than one year after the first reported case of COVID-19 in the U.S., this thesis investigates how and why the magnitude and direction of income manipulation by North American firms changed in 2020. This study is split into a univariate analysis and a regression analysis part. In the former I run expectation models for normal accruals within each industry-quarter and proxy for accruals management through the regression residuals. The significance of the difference in the magnitude of abnormal / discretionary accruals between the comparison period (2018-2019) and the crisis period (2020) is estimated through a bootstrap procedure. In the latter I regress discretionary accruals against a proxy for high-order uncertainty (dispersion in analyst forecasts) in both the comparison period and the crisis period. First, I find that 2020 brought about a significant increase in the magnitude of income-decreasing manipulation (relative to the comparison period, firms underreported earnings by a greater percentage of assets in 2020). Second, I find that in 2020 higher ex-ante earnings uncertainty levels are correlated with higher absolute negative discretionary accruals (associated to income-decreasing manipulation). Third, I conclude that the underreporting trend in 2020 is at least partially explained by earnings shifting incentives since the effect of positive surprises on announcement returns is significantly mitigated by ex-ante earnings uncertainty.