Markovian model for forecasting financial time series

• Autor(a) principal: Hasanbas, Ersin
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10071/21762
• topic: Time series; Machine learning; Cadeia de Markov -- Markov Chain; Forecasting; Séries temporais; Aprendizagem das máquinas; Previsão

The study aims to create a Markovian model for forecasting financial time series and measure its effectiveness on stock prices. In the study, the new forecaster was inspired by several machine learning techniques and included statistical approaches and conditional probabilities. Namely, Markov Chains and Hidden Markov Chains are the main inspiration for machine learning techniques. To be able to process time series with Markov Chains like algorithm, new transformation developed with the usage of daily stock prices. Thirteen years of daily stock prices have been used for the data feed. For measuring the effectiveness of a new predictor, the obtaıned results are compared with conventional methods such as ARIMA, linear regression, decision tree regression and support vector regression predictions. The comparisons presented are based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error ( RMSE). According to the achieved results, the new predictor performs better than decision tree regression, and ARIMA performs best among them.