Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2667-2 http://hdl.handle.net/10348/10925 |
Resumo: | Recent and future changes in precipitation extremes over Portugal were studied. Trends in selected precipitation indices were calculated on a seasonal scale for the period of 1950–2003. Considering the same indices, this study also assessed possible changes under future climatic conditions (2046–2065). Furthermore, trends and projections for the future were evaluated using a single/unified index of extreme precipitation susceptibility (EPSI). The results revealed statistically significant drying trends in spring, mainly in northern and central Portugal, while weak wetting trends were detected in autumn. The EPSI trends also depicted a decrease of extreme precipitation in spring over central Portugal and a slight increase in autumn over northern Portugal and nearby Lisbon. On the other hand, climate change projections revealed a decrease in precipitation, mainly over northwestern Portugal, whereas the contribution of extreme precipitation to total precipitation is expected to increase, mostly in southern Portugal. The maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is also projected to increase throughout Portugal. EPSI showed enhanced susceptibility for most Portuguese municipalities, which may be associated with increased vulnerability to flash floods. Climate change projections by municipality for both EPSI and CDD are an important decision support tool for civil protection and for risk management in Portugal. |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland PortugalRecent and future changes in precipitation extremes over Portugal were studied. Trends in selected precipitation indices were calculated on a seasonal scale for the period of 1950–2003. Considering the same indices, this study also assessed possible changes under future climatic conditions (2046–2065). Furthermore, trends and projections for the future were evaluated using a single/unified index of extreme precipitation susceptibility (EPSI). The results revealed statistically significant drying trends in spring, mainly in northern and central Portugal, while weak wetting trends were detected in autumn. The EPSI trends also depicted a decrease of extreme precipitation in spring over central Portugal and a slight increase in autumn over northern Portugal and nearby Lisbon. On the other hand, climate change projections revealed a decrease in precipitation, mainly over northwestern Portugal, whereas the contribution of extreme precipitation to total precipitation is expected to increase, mostly in southern Portugal. The maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is also projected to increase throughout Portugal. EPSI showed enhanced susceptibility for most Portuguese municipalities, which may be associated with increased vulnerability to flash floods. Climate change projections by municipality for both EPSI and CDD are an important decision support tool for civil protection and for risk management in Portugal.2021-12-21T15:17:51Z2018-01-01T00:00:00Z2018info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2667-2http://hdl.handle.net/10348/10925eng0177-798XSantos, MónicaFonseca, AndréFragoso, MarceloSantos, J. A.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-02-02T12:34:46Zoai:repositorio.utad.pt:10348/10925Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:01:05.920329Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal |
title |
Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal |
spellingShingle |
Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal Santos, Mónica |
title_short |
Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal |
title_full |
Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal |
title_fullStr |
Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal |
title_sort |
Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal |
author |
Santos, Mónica |
author_facet |
Santos, Mónica Fonseca, André Fragoso, Marcelo Santos, J. A. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Fonseca, André Fragoso, Marcelo Santos, J. A. |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Mónica Fonseca, André Fragoso, Marcelo Santos, J. A. |
description |
Recent and future changes in precipitation extremes over Portugal were studied. Trends in selected precipitation indices were calculated on a seasonal scale for the period of 1950–2003. Considering the same indices, this study also assessed possible changes under future climatic conditions (2046–2065). Furthermore, trends and projections for the future were evaluated using a single/unified index of extreme precipitation susceptibility (EPSI). The results revealed statistically significant drying trends in spring, mainly in northern and central Portugal, while weak wetting trends were detected in autumn. The EPSI trends also depicted a decrease of extreme precipitation in spring over central Portugal and a slight increase in autumn over northern Portugal and nearby Lisbon. On the other hand, climate change projections revealed a decrease in precipitation, mainly over northwestern Portugal, whereas the contribution of extreme precipitation to total precipitation is expected to increase, mostly in southern Portugal. The maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is also projected to increase throughout Portugal. EPSI showed enhanced susceptibility for most Portuguese municipalities, which may be associated with increased vulnerability to flash floods. Climate change projections by municipality for both EPSI and CDD are an important decision support tool for civil protection and for risk management in Portugal. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-01-01T00:00:00Z 2018 2021-12-21T15:17:51Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2667-2 http://hdl.handle.net/10348/10925 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2667-2 http://hdl.handle.net/10348/10925 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
0177-798X |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799137095206305792 |