Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/10216/121415 |
Resumo: | Objective To model the reduction in premature deaths attributed to noncommunicable diseases if targets for reformulation of processed food agreed between the Portuguese health ministry and the food industry were met. Methods The 2015 co-regulation agreement sets voluntary targets for reducing sugar, salt and trans-fatty acids in a range of products by 2021. We obtained government data on dietary intake in 2015-2016 and on population structure and deaths from four major noncommunicable diseases over 1990-2016. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl tool to estimate the deaths averted if reformulation targets were met in full. We projected future trends in noncommunicable disease deaths using regression modelling and assessed whether Portugal was on track to reduce baseline premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the year 2010 by 25% by 2025, and by 30% before 2030. Findings If reformulation targets were met, we projected reductions in intake in 2015-2016 for salt from 7.6 g/day to 7.1 g/day; in total energy from 1911 kcal/day to 1897 kcal/day due to reduced sugar intake; and in total fat (% total energy) from 30.4% to 30.3% due to reduced trans-fat intake. This consumption profile would result in 248 fewer premature noncommunicable disease deaths (95% CI: 178 to 318) in 2016. We projected that full implementation of the industry agreement would reduce the risk of premature death from 11.0% in 2016 to 10.7% by 2021. Conclusion The co-regulation agreement could save lives and reduce the risk of premature death in Portugal. Nevertheless, the projected impact on mortality was insufficient to meet international targets. |
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Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, PortugalCiências da Saúde, Ciências médicas e da saúdeHealth sciences, Medical and Health sciencesObjective To model the reduction in premature deaths attributed to noncommunicable diseases if targets for reformulation of processed food agreed between the Portuguese health ministry and the food industry were met. Methods The 2015 co-regulation agreement sets voluntary targets for reducing sugar, salt and trans-fatty acids in a range of products by 2021. We obtained government data on dietary intake in 2015-2016 and on population structure and deaths from four major noncommunicable diseases over 1990-2016. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl tool to estimate the deaths averted if reformulation targets were met in full. We projected future trends in noncommunicable disease deaths using regression modelling and assessed whether Portugal was on track to reduce baseline premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the year 2010 by 25% by 2025, and by 30% before 2030. Findings If reformulation targets were met, we projected reductions in intake in 2015-2016 for salt from 7.6 g/day to 7.1 g/day; in total energy from 1911 kcal/day to 1897 kcal/day due to reduced sugar intake; and in total fat (% total energy) from 30.4% to 30.3% due to reduced trans-fat intake. This consumption profile would result in 248 fewer premature noncommunicable disease deaths (95% CI: 178 to 318) in 2016. We projected that full implementation of the industry agreement would reduce the risk of premature death from 11.0% in 2016 to 10.7% by 2021. Conclusion The co-regulation agreement could save lives and reduce the risk of premature death in Portugal. Nevertheless, the projected impact on mortality was insufficient to meet international targets.20192019-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/10216/121415eng0042-968610.2471/blt.18.220566Goiana da Silva, FCruz e Silva, DAllen, LGregório, Maria JoãoSevero, MNogueira, PJNunes, AMGraça, PedroLopes, CMiraldo, MBreda, JWickramasinghe, KDarzi, AAraujo, FMikkelsen, Binfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-29T15:37:23Zoai:repositorio-aberto.up.pt:10216/121415Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T00:28:01.710997Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal |
title |
Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal |
spellingShingle |
Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal Goiana da Silva, F Ciências da Saúde, Ciências médicas e da saúde Health sciences, Medical and Health sciences |
title_short |
Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal |
title_full |
Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal |
title_fullStr |
Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal |
title_sort |
Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal |
author |
Goiana da Silva, F |
author_facet |
Goiana da Silva, F Cruz e Silva, D Allen, L Gregório, Maria João Severo, M Nogueira, PJ Nunes, AM Graça, Pedro Lopes, C Miraldo, M Breda, J Wickramasinghe, K Darzi, A Araujo, F Mikkelsen, B |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Cruz e Silva, D Allen, L Gregório, Maria João Severo, M Nogueira, PJ Nunes, AM Graça, Pedro Lopes, C Miraldo, M Breda, J Wickramasinghe, K Darzi, A Araujo, F Mikkelsen, B |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Goiana da Silva, F Cruz e Silva, D Allen, L Gregório, Maria João Severo, M Nogueira, PJ Nunes, AM Graça, Pedro Lopes, C Miraldo, M Breda, J Wickramasinghe, K Darzi, A Araujo, F Mikkelsen, B |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Ciências da Saúde, Ciências médicas e da saúde Health sciences, Medical and Health sciences |
topic |
Ciências da Saúde, Ciências médicas e da saúde Health sciences, Medical and Health sciences |
description |
Objective To model the reduction in premature deaths attributed to noncommunicable diseases if targets for reformulation of processed food agreed between the Portuguese health ministry and the food industry were met. Methods The 2015 co-regulation agreement sets voluntary targets for reducing sugar, salt and trans-fatty acids in a range of products by 2021. We obtained government data on dietary intake in 2015-2016 and on population structure and deaths from four major noncommunicable diseases over 1990-2016. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl tool to estimate the deaths averted if reformulation targets were met in full. We projected future trends in noncommunicable disease deaths using regression modelling and assessed whether Portugal was on track to reduce baseline premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the year 2010 by 25% by 2025, and by 30% before 2030. Findings If reformulation targets were met, we projected reductions in intake in 2015-2016 for salt from 7.6 g/day to 7.1 g/day; in total energy from 1911 kcal/day to 1897 kcal/day due to reduced sugar intake; and in total fat (% total energy) from 30.4% to 30.3% due to reduced trans-fat intake. This consumption profile would result in 248 fewer premature noncommunicable disease deaths (95% CI: 178 to 318) in 2016. We projected that full implementation of the industry agreement would reduce the risk of premature death from 11.0% in 2016 to 10.7% by 2021. Conclusion The co-regulation agreement could save lives and reduce the risk of premature death in Portugal. Nevertheless, the projected impact on mortality was insufficient to meet international targets. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/10216/121415 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10216/121415 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
0042-9686 10.2471/blt.18.220566 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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