The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Pina, Álvaro
Data de Publicação: 2007
Outros Autores: Venes, Nuno
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2592
Resumo: This paper analyses the track record of fiscal forecasts reported by 15 European countries in the context of the Excessive Deficit Procedure. For the budget balance, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and interest payments, we study the statistical properties of forecast errors and their politico-institutional determinants. While errors in interest and GFCF expenditure present few systematic patterns, budget balance errors are responsive to fiscal institutions and to opportunistic motivations, especially from 1999 onwards: upcoming elections induce over-optimism, whereas commitment or mixed forms of fiscal governance and numerical expenditure rules (but not deficit and debt rules) are associated to greater prudence.
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spelling The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessmentFiscal ForecastingStability and Growth PactExcessive Deficit ProcedureFiscal RulesThis paper analyses the track record of fiscal forecasts reported by 15 European countries in the context of the Excessive Deficit Procedure. For the budget balance, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and interest payments, we study the statistical properties of forecast errors and their politico-institutional determinants. While errors in interest and GFCF expenditure present few systematic patterns, budget balance errors are responsive to fiscal institutions and to opportunistic motivations, especially from 1999 onwards: upcoming elections induce over-optimism, whereas commitment or mixed forms of fiscal governance and numerical expenditure rules (but not deficit and debt rules) are associated to greater prudence.ISEG – Departamento de EconomiaRepositório da Universidade de LisboaPina, ÁlvaroVenes, Nuno2010-11-30T15:36:24Z20072007-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2592engPina, Álvaro e Nuno Venes. 2007. "The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 23-2007/DE/UECE0874-4548info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:33:46Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/2592Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:50:34.521712Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment
title The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment
spellingShingle The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment
Pina, Álvaro
Fiscal Forecasting
Stability and Growth Pact
Excessive Deficit Procedure
Fiscal Rules
title_short The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment
title_full The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment
title_fullStr The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment
title_full_unstemmed The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment
title_sort The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment
author Pina, Álvaro
author_facet Pina, Álvaro
Venes, Nuno
author_role author
author2 Venes, Nuno
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Pina, Álvaro
Venes, Nuno
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Fiscal Forecasting
Stability and Growth Pact
Excessive Deficit Procedure
Fiscal Rules
topic Fiscal Forecasting
Stability and Growth Pact
Excessive Deficit Procedure
Fiscal Rules
description This paper analyses the track record of fiscal forecasts reported by 15 European countries in the context of the Excessive Deficit Procedure. For the budget balance, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and interest payments, we study the statistical properties of forecast errors and their politico-institutional determinants. While errors in interest and GFCF expenditure present few systematic patterns, budget balance errors are responsive to fiscal institutions and to opportunistic motivations, especially from 1999 onwards: upcoming elections induce over-optimism, whereas commitment or mixed forms of fiscal governance and numerical expenditure rules (but not deficit and debt rules) are associated to greater prudence.
publishDate 2007
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2007
2007-01-01T00:00:00Z
2010-11-30T15:36:24Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2592
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2592
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Pina, Álvaro e Nuno Venes. 2007. "The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 23-2007/DE/UECE
0874-4548
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG – Departamento de Economia
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG – Departamento de Economia
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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