Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Nunes, João Pedro
Data de Publicação: 2017
Outros Autores: Jacinto, Rita, Keizer, Jacob
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/43998
Resumo: The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes.
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spelling Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoirPortugalSocioeconomic FactorsWaterAgricultural IrrigationClimate ChangeWater SupplyThe impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes.ElsevierRepositório da Universidade de LisboaNunes, João PedroJacinto, RitaKeizer, Jacob2020-07-14T12:50:50Z2017-02-202017-02-20T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/43998engNunes J.P., Jacinto R., Keizer J.J. 2017. Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir. Science of the Total Environment 584-585 (C): 219-233 (DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.131).10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.131info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:44:42Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/43998Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:56:41.109966Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir
title Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir
spellingShingle Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir
Nunes, João Pedro
Portugal
Socioeconomic Factors
Water
Agricultural Irrigation
Climate Change
Water Supply
title_short Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir
title_full Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir
title_fullStr Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir
title_full_unstemmed Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir
title_sort Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir
author Nunes, João Pedro
author_facet Nunes, João Pedro
Jacinto, Rita
Keizer, Jacob
author_role author
author2 Jacinto, Rita
Keizer, Jacob
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Nunes, João Pedro
Jacinto, Rita
Keizer, Jacob
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Portugal
Socioeconomic Factors
Water
Agricultural Irrigation
Climate Change
Water Supply
topic Portugal
Socioeconomic Factors
Water
Agricultural Irrigation
Climate Change
Water Supply
description The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-02-20
2017-02-20T00:00:00Z
2020-07-14T12:50:50Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10451/43998
url http://hdl.handle.net/10451/43998
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Nunes J.P., Jacinto R., Keizer J.J. 2017. Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir. Science of the Total Environment 584-585 (C): 219-233 (DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.131).
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.131
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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