Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: evidence from causality analysis

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Bento, J. P.
Data de Publicação: 2012
Outros Autores: Santos, Maria Madalena Pinto
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10773/10850
Resumo: This paper investigates empirically the role of tourism in the Portuguese long-run economic output growth on quarterly data (1997:1 to 2010:4). The augmented Granger causality test approach developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is employed to ascertain the direction of causality between variables in a bi-variate vector autoregressions (VAR) system using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method. The results provide evidence of a strong one-way directional causality between tourism and economic growth and the necessary argument to support the tourism led growth hypothesis. This result has important policy implications for where government investments should be targeted giving a further catalyst to economic growth.
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spelling Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: evidence from causality analysisInternational tourismEconomic growthCausality analysisPortugalTurismo internacionalCrescimento económicoAnálise de causalidadeThis paper investigates empirically the role of tourism in the Portuguese long-run economic output growth on quarterly data (1997:1 to 2010:4). The augmented Granger causality test approach developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is employed to ascertain the direction of causality between variables in a bi-variate vector autoregressions (VAR) system using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method. The results provide evidence of a strong one-way directional causality between tourism and economic growth and the necessary argument to support the tourism led growth hypothesis. This result has important policy implications for where government investments should be targeted giving a further catalyst to economic growth.Este artigo faz uma investigação empírica sobre o papel do turismo no crescimento económico de longo prazo em Portugal. Para tal, foram utilizados os dados disponíveis: valores trimestrais de 1997 a 2010. Foi utilizada a análise de causalidade de Granger desenvolvida por Toda e Yamamoto (1995), para verificar a direção da causalidade entre as variáveis, num sistema VAR (“ bi-variate vector autoregression”) utilizando o método SUR (“Seemingly Unrelated Regression”). Os resultados evidenciaram uma importante causalidade unidireccional entre o turismo e o crescimento económico, confirmando a hipótese do setor do turismo gerar crescimento. Este resultado revela-se assim importante em termos de políticas públicas de investimento, mostrando como o turismo pode ser catalisador de crescimento económico.Universidade de Aveiro, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial10000-01-01T00:00:00Z2012-01-01T00:00:00Z2012info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10773/10850eng1645-9261Bento, J. P.Santos, Maria Madalena Pintoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-02-22T11:17:18Zoai:ria.ua.pt:10773/10850Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:46:40.763510Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: evidence from causality analysis
title Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: evidence from causality analysis
spellingShingle Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: evidence from causality analysis
Bento, J. P.
International tourism
Economic growth
Causality analysis
Portugal
Turismo internacional
Crescimento económico
Análise de causalidade
title_short Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: evidence from causality analysis
title_full Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: evidence from causality analysis
title_fullStr Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: evidence from causality analysis
title_full_unstemmed Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: evidence from causality analysis
title_sort Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: evidence from causality analysis
author Bento, J. P.
author_facet Bento, J. P.
Santos, Maria Madalena Pinto
author_role author
author2 Santos, Maria Madalena Pinto
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bento, J. P.
Santos, Maria Madalena Pinto
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv International tourism
Economic growth
Causality analysis
Portugal
Turismo internacional
Crescimento económico
Análise de causalidade
topic International tourism
Economic growth
Causality analysis
Portugal
Turismo internacional
Crescimento económico
Análise de causalidade
description This paper investigates empirically the role of tourism in the Portuguese long-run economic output growth on quarterly data (1997:1 to 2010:4). The augmented Granger causality test approach developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is employed to ascertain the direction of causality between variables in a bi-variate vector autoregressions (VAR) system using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method. The results provide evidence of a strong one-way directional causality between tourism and economic growth and the necessary argument to support the tourism led growth hypothesis. This result has important policy implications for where government investments should be targeted giving a further catalyst to economic growth.
publishDate 2012
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 10000-01-01T00:00:00Z
2012-01-01T00:00:00Z
2012
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10773/10850
url http://hdl.handle.net/10773/10850
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 1645-9261
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de Aveiro, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de Aveiro, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
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reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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