Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Alvarenga, António
Data de Publicação: 2019
Outros Autores: Costa, Carlos A. Bana e, Borrell, Carme, Ferreira, Pedro Lopes, Freitas, Ângela Mendes, Freitas, Liliana, Oliveira, Mónica D., Rodrigues, Teresa C., Rodrigues, Ana Paula Santana, Santos, Maria Lopes, Vieira, Ana C. L.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8
Resumo: Background: Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges. Objective: This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. Methods: A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) – this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures – different drivers’ configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants’ insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain. Results: Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: ‘Failing Europe’ (worstcase but plausible picture of the future), ‘Sustainable Prosperity’ (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario ‘Being Stuck’ depicting a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities. Conclusions: The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.
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spelling Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experienceDelphi methodForesightHealth inequalitiesParticipatory approachPoliciesPopulation HealthScenariosSocio-technical approachStakeholdersBackground: Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges. Objective: This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. Methods: A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) – this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures – different drivers’ configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants’ insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain. Results: Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: ‘Failing Europe’ (worstcase but plausible picture of the future), ‘Sustainable Prosperity’ (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario ‘Being Stuck’ depicting a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities. Conclusions: The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.BMC2019-06-25info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020http://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8eng1475-9276https://equityhealthj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8#citeasAlvarenga, AntónioCosta, Carlos A. Bana eBorrell, CarmeFerreira, Pedro LopesFreitas, Ângela MendesFreitas, LilianaOliveira, Mónica D.Rodrigues, Teresa C.Rodrigues, Ana Paula SantanaSantos, Maria LopesVieira, Ana C. L.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2021-10-20T12:58:58Zoai:estudogeral.uc.pt:10316/89020Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:09:28.137520Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
title Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
spellingShingle Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
Alvarenga, António
Delphi method
Foresight
Health inequalities
Participatory approach
Policies
Population Health
Scenarios
Socio-technical approach
Stakeholders
title_short Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
title_full Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
title_fullStr Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
title_full_unstemmed Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
title_sort Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
author Alvarenga, António
author_facet Alvarenga, António
Costa, Carlos A. Bana e
Borrell, Carme
Ferreira, Pedro Lopes
Freitas, Ângela Mendes
Freitas, Liliana
Oliveira, Mónica D.
Rodrigues, Teresa C.
Rodrigues, Ana Paula Santana
Santos, Maria Lopes
Vieira, Ana C. L.
author_role author
author2 Costa, Carlos A. Bana e
Borrell, Carme
Ferreira, Pedro Lopes
Freitas, Ângela Mendes
Freitas, Liliana
Oliveira, Mónica D.
Rodrigues, Teresa C.
Rodrigues, Ana Paula Santana
Santos, Maria Lopes
Vieira, Ana C. L.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Alvarenga, António
Costa, Carlos A. Bana e
Borrell, Carme
Ferreira, Pedro Lopes
Freitas, Ângela Mendes
Freitas, Liliana
Oliveira, Mónica D.
Rodrigues, Teresa C.
Rodrigues, Ana Paula Santana
Santos, Maria Lopes
Vieira, Ana C. L.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Delphi method
Foresight
Health inequalities
Participatory approach
Policies
Population Health
Scenarios
Socio-technical approach
Stakeholders
topic Delphi method
Foresight
Health inequalities
Participatory approach
Policies
Population Health
Scenarios
Socio-technical approach
Stakeholders
description Background: Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges. Objective: This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. Methods: A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) – this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures – different drivers’ configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants’ insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain. Results: Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: ‘Failing Europe’ (worstcase but plausible picture of the future), ‘Sustainable Prosperity’ (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario ‘Being Stuck’ depicting a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities. Conclusions: The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-06-25
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8
url http://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 1475-9276
https://equityhealthj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8#citeas
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reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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