Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8 |
Resumo: | Background: Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges. Objective: This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. Methods: A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) – this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures – different drivers’ configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants’ insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain. Results: Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: ‘Failing Europe’ (worstcase but plausible picture of the future), ‘Sustainable Prosperity’ (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario ‘Being Stuck’ depicting a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities. Conclusions: The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. |
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Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experienceDelphi methodForesightHealth inequalitiesParticipatory approachPoliciesPopulation HealthScenariosSocio-technical approachStakeholdersBackground: Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges. Objective: This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. Methods: A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) – this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures – different drivers’ configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants’ insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain. Results: Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: ‘Failing Europe’ (worstcase but plausible picture of the future), ‘Sustainable Prosperity’ (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario ‘Being Stuck’ depicting a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities. Conclusions: The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.BMC2019-06-25info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020http://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8eng1475-9276https://equityhealthj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8#citeasAlvarenga, AntónioCosta, Carlos A. Bana eBorrell, CarmeFerreira, Pedro LopesFreitas, Ângela MendesFreitas, LilianaOliveira, Mónica D.Rodrigues, Teresa C.Rodrigues, Ana Paula SantanaSantos, Maria LopesVieira, Ana C. L.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2021-10-20T12:58:58Zoai:estudogeral.uc.pt:10316/89020Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:09:28.137520Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
title |
Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
spellingShingle |
Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience Alvarenga, António Delphi method Foresight Health inequalities Participatory approach Policies Population Health Scenarios Socio-technical approach Stakeholders |
title_short |
Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
title_full |
Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
title_fullStr |
Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
title_full_unstemmed |
Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
title_sort |
Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
author |
Alvarenga, António |
author_facet |
Alvarenga, António Costa, Carlos A. Bana e Borrell, Carme Ferreira, Pedro Lopes Freitas, Ângela Mendes Freitas, Liliana Oliveira, Mónica D. Rodrigues, Teresa C. Rodrigues, Ana Paula Santana Santos, Maria Lopes Vieira, Ana C. L. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Costa, Carlos A. Bana e Borrell, Carme Ferreira, Pedro Lopes Freitas, Ângela Mendes Freitas, Liliana Oliveira, Mónica D. Rodrigues, Teresa C. Rodrigues, Ana Paula Santana Santos, Maria Lopes Vieira, Ana C. L. |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Alvarenga, António Costa, Carlos A. Bana e Borrell, Carme Ferreira, Pedro Lopes Freitas, Ângela Mendes Freitas, Liliana Oliveira, Mónica D. Rodrigues, Teresa C. Rodrigues, Ana Paula Santana Santos, Maria Lopes Vieira, Ana C. L. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Delphi method Foresight Health inequalities Participatory approach Policies Population Health Scenarios Socio-technical approach Stakeholders |
topic |
Delphi method Foresight Health inequalities Participatory approach Policies Population Health Scenarios Socio-technical approach Stakeholders |
description |
Background: Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges. Objective: This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. Methods: A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) – this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures – different drivers’ configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants’ insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain. Results: Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: ‘Failing Europe’ (worstcase but plausible picture of the future), ‘Sustainable Prosperity’ (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario ‘Being Stuck’ depicting a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities. Conclusions: The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-06-25 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020 http://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/89020 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
1475-9276 https://equityhealthj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8#citeas |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
BMC |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
BMC |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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