Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30282 |
Resumo: | Landscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes. |
id |
RCAP_c694369b19782ac9fc164862c1aa013c |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/30282 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy optionswildfire mitigationwildfire policyfire regimeagent-based modellingland cover choicefire resilienceLandscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.MDPIRepositório da Universidade de LisboaRibeiro, Paulo FloresMoreira, FranciscoCanadas, Maria JoãoNovais, AnaLeal, MiguelOliveira, SandraBergonse, RafaelloZêzere, José LuísSantos, José Lima2024-03-05T19:36:45Z2023-032023-03-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30282engRibeiro, P.F.; Moreira, F.; Canadas, M.J.; Novais, A.; Leal, M.; Oliveira, S.; Bergonse, R.; Zêzere, J.L.; Santos, J.L. Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options. Fire 2023, 6, 102.10.3390/fire6030102info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-10T01:34:42Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/30282Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:14:16.000532Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options |
title |
Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options |
spellingShingle |
Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options Ribeiro, Paulo Flores wildfire mitigation wildfire policy fire regime agent-based modelling land cover choice fire resilience |
title_short |
Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options |
title_full |
Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options |
title_fullStr |
Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options |
title_full_unstemmed |
Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options |
title_sort |
Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options |
author |
Ribeiro, Paulo Flores |
author_facet |
Ribeiro, Paulo Flores Moreira, Francisco Canadas, Maria João Novais, Ana Leal, Miguel Oliveira, Sandra Bergonse, Rafaello Zêzere, José Luís Santos, José Lima |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Moreira, Francisco Canadas, Maria João Novais, Ana Leal, Miguel Oliveira, Sandra Bergonse, Rafaello Zêzere, José Luís Santos, José Lima |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Ribeiro, Paulo Flores Moreira, Francisco Canadas, Maria João Novais, Ana Leal, Miguel Oliveira, Sandra Bergonse, Rafaello Zêzere, José Luís Santos, José Lima |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
wildfire mitigation wildfire policy fire regime agent-based modelling land cover choice fire resilience |
topic |
wildfire mitigation wildfire policy fire regime agent-based modelling land cover choice fire resilience |
description |
Landscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-03 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z 2024-03-05T19:36:45Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30282 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30282 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Ribeiro, P.F.; Moreira, F.; Canadas, M.J.; Novais, A.; Leal, M.; Oliveira, S.; Bergonse, R.; Zêzere, J.L.; Santos, J.L. Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options. Fire 2023, 6, 102. 10.3390/fire6030102 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
MDPI |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
MDPI |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799137795415998464 |