Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10198/21708 |
Resumo: | Climate change is becoming the leading driver of biodiversity loss. The Mediterranean region, particularly southwest-ern Europe, is already confronting the consequences of ongoing global warming. Unprecedented biodiversity declines have been recorded, particularly within freshwater ecosystems. Freshwater mussels contribute to essential ecosystem services but are among the most threatened faunal groups on Earth. Their poor conservation status is related to the de-pendence on fish hosts to complete the life cycle, which also makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict species distributions, but often disregard the poten-tial effect of biotic interactions. This study investigated the potential impact of future climate on the distribution of freshwater mussel species while considering their obligatory interaction with fish hosts. Specifically, ensemble models were used to forecast the current and future distribution of six mussel species in the Iberian Peninsula, including envi-ronmental conditions and the distribution of fish hosts as predictors. We found that climate change is expected to se-verely impact the future distribution of Iberian mussels. Species with narrow ranges, namely Margaritifera margaritifera and Unio tumidiformis, were predicted to have their suitable habitats nearly lost and could potentially be facing regional and global extinctions, respectively. Anodonta anatina, Potomida littoralis, and particularly Unio delphinus and Unio mancus, are expected to suffer distributional losses but may gain new suitable habitats. A shift in their distribution to new suitable areas is only possible if fish hosts are able to disperse while carrying larvae. We also found that includ-ing the distribution of fish hosts in the mussels' models avoided the underprediction of habitat loss under climate change. This study warns of the imminent loss of mussel species and populations and the urgent need of management actions to reverse current trends and mitigate irreversible damage to species and ecosystems in Mediterranean regions. |
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Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate changeBiodiversity conservationBiotic interactionsFish hostsHabitat lossRange shiftSpecies distribution modelsClimate change is becoming the leading driver of biodiversity loss. The Mediterranean region, particularly southwest-ern Europe, is already confronting the consequences of ongoing global warming. Unprecedented biodiversity declines have been recorded, particularly within freshwater ecosystems. Freshwater mussels contribute to essential ecosystem services but are among the most threatened faunal groups on Earth. Their poor conservation status is related to the de-pendence on fish hosts to complete the life cycle, which also makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict species distributions, but often disregard the poten-tial effect of biotic interactions. This study investigated the potential impact of future climate on the distribution of freshwater mussel species while considering their obligatory interaction with fish hosts. Specifically, ensemble models were used to forecast the current and future distribution of six mussel species in the Iberian Peninsula, including envi-ronmental conditions and the distribution of fish hosts as predictors. We found that climate change is expected to se-verely impact the future distribution of Iberian mussels. Species with narrow ranges, namely Margaritifera margaritifera and Unio tumidiformis, were predicted to have their suitable habitats nearly lost and could potentially be facing regional and global extinctions, respectively. Anodonta anatina, Potomida littoralis, and particularly Unio delphinus and Unio mancus, are expected to suffer distributional losses but may gain new suitable habitats. A shift in their distribution to new suitable areas is only possible if fish hosts are able to disperse while carrying larvae. We also found that includ-ing the distribution of fish hosts in the mussels' models avoided the underprediction of habitat loss under climate change. This study warns of the imminent loss of mussel species and populations and the urgent need of management actions to reverse current trends and mitigate irreversible damage to species and ecosystems in Mediterranean regions.ElsevierBiblioteca Digital do IPBSilva, Janine P.Sousa, RonaldoGoncalves, Duarte VasconcelosMiranda, RafaelReis, JoaquimTeixeira, AmílcarVarandas, SimoneLopes-Lima, ManuelFilipe, Ana Filipa2020-04-17T10:24:00Z20232023-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/21708engSilva, Janine P.; Sousa, Ronaldo; Goncalves, Duarte Vasconcelos; Miranda, Rafael; Reis, Joaquim; Teixeira, Amílcar; Varandas, Simone; Lopes-Lima, Manuel; Filipe, Ana Filipa (2023). Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change. Science of The Total Environment. eISSN 1879-1026. 883, p. 1-150048-969710.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.1636891879-1026info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-21T10:48:55Zoai:bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt:10198/21708Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T23:13:03.013877Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change |
title |
Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change |
spellingShingle |
Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change Silva, Janine P. Biodiversity conservation Biotic interactions Fish hosts Habitat loss Range shift Species distribution models |
title_short |
Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change |
title_full |
Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change |
title_fullStr |
Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change |
title_sort |
Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change |
author |
Silva, Janine P. |
author_facet |
Silva, Janine P. Sousa, Ronaldo Goncalves, Duarte Vasconcelos Miranda, Rafael Reis, Joaquim Teixeira, Amílcar Varandas, Simone Lopes-Lima, Manuel Filipe, Ana Filipa |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sousa, Ronaldo Goncalves, Duarte Vasconcelos Miranda, Rafael Reis, Joaquim Teixeira, Amílcar Varandas, Simone Lopes-Lima, Manuel Filipe, Ana Filipa |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Janine P. Sousa, Ronaldo Goncalves, Duarte Vasconcelos Miranda, Rafael Reis, Joaquim Teixeira, Amílcar Varandas, Simone Lopes-Lima, Manuel Filipe, Ana Filipa |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Biodiversity conservation Biotic interactions Fish hosts Habitat loss Range shift Species distribution models |
topic |
Biodiversity conservation Biotic interactions Fish hosts Habitat loss Range shift Species distribution models |
description |
Climate change is becoming the leading driver of biodiversity loss. The Mediterranean region, particularly southwest-ern Europe, is already confronting the consequences of ongoing global warming. Unprecedented biodiversity declines have been recorded, particularly within freshwater ecosystems. Freshwater mussels contribute to essential ecosystem services but are among the most threatened faunal groups on Earth. Their poor conservation status is related to the de-pendence on fish hosts to complete the life cycle, which also makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict species distributions, but often disregard the poten-tial effect of biotic interactions. This study investigated the potential impact of future climate on the distribution of freshwater mussel species while considering their obligatory interaction with fish hosts. Specifically, ensemble models were used to forecast the current and future distribution of six mussel species in the Iberian Peninsula, including envi-ronmental conditions and the distribution of fish hosts as predictors. We found that climate change is expected to se-verely impact the future distribution of Iberian mussels. Species with narrow ranges, namely Margaritifera margaritifera and Unio tumidiformis, were predicted to have their suitable habitats nearly lost and could potentially be facing regional and global extinctions, respectively. Anodonta anatina, Potomida littoralis, and particularly Unio delphinus and Unio mancus, are expected to suffer distributional losses but may gain new suitable habitats. A shift in their distribution to new suitable areas is only possible if fish hosts are able to disperse while carrying larvae. We also found that includ-ing the distribution of fish hosts in the mussels' models avoided the underprediction of habitat loss under climate change. This study warns of the imminent loss of mussel species and populations and the urgent need of management actions to reverse current trends and mitigate irreversible damage to species and ecosystems in Mediterranean regions. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-04-17T10:24:00Z 2023 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10198/21708 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10198/21708 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Janine P.; Sousa, Ronaldo; Goncalves, Duarte Vasconcelos; Miranda, Rafael; Reis, Joaquim; Teixeira, Amílcar; Varandas, Simone; Lopes-Lima, Manuel; Filipe, Ana Filipa (2023). Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change. Science of The Total Environment. eISSN 1879-1026. 883, p. 1-15 0048-9697 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163689 1879-1026 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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