Are drought occurrence and severity aggravating? A study on SPI drought class transitions using log-linear models and ANOVA-like inference

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Moreira, E. E.
Data de Publicação: 2012
Outros Autores: Mexia, J. T., Pereira, L. S.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3011-2012
Resumo: This work was partially supported by the research project PTDC/AGR-AAM/71649/2006 - Droughts Risk Management: Identification, Monitoring, Characterization, Prediction and Mitigation as well as by CMA/FCT/UNL under the project PEst-OE/MAT/UI0297/2011.
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spelling Are drought occurrence and severity aggravating? A study on SPI drought class transitions using log-linear models and ANOVA-like inferenceWater Science and TechnologyEarth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)This work was partially supported by the research project PTDC/AGR-AAM/71649/2006 - Droughts Risk Management: Identification, Monitoring, Characterization, Prediction and Mitigation as well as by CMA/FCT/UNL under the project PEst-OE/MAT/UI0297/2011.Long time series (95 to 135 yr) of the 12-month time scale Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) relative to 10 locations across Portugal were studied with the aim of investigating if drought frequency and severity are changing through time. Considering four drought severity classes, time series of drought class transitions were computed and later divided into several sub-periods according to the length of SPI time series. Drought class transitions were calculated to form a 2-dimensional contingency table for each sub-period, which refer to the number of transitions among drought severity classes. Two-dimensional log-linear models were fitted to these contingency tables and an ANOVA-like inference was then performed in order to investigate differences relative to drought class transitions among those sub-periods, which were considered as treatments of only one factor. The application of ANOVA-like inference to these data allowed to compare the sub-periods in terms of probabilities of transition between drought classes, which were used to detect a possible trend in droughts frequency and severity. Results for a number of locations show some similarity between alternate sub-periods and differences between consecutive ones regarding the persistency of severe/extreme and sometimes moderate droughts. In global terms, results do not support the assumption of a trend for progressive aggravation of drought occurrence during the last century, but rather suggest the existence of long duration cycles.CMA - Centro de Matemática e AplicaçõesDM - Departamento de MatemáticaRUNMoreira, E. E.Mexia, J. T.Pereira, L. S.2019-07-11T22:34:41Z2012-12-012012-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article18application/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3011-2012eng1027-5606PURE: 11578461http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84880671775&partnerID=8YFLogxKhttps://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3011-2012info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T04:34:26Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/75189Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:35:29.495941Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Are drought occurrence and severity aggravating? A study on SPI drought class transitions using log-linear models and ANOVA-like inference
title Are drought occurrence and severity aggravating? A study on SPI drought class transitions using log-linear models and ANOVA-like inference
spellingShingle Are drought occurrence and severity aggravating? A study on SPI drought class transitions using log-linear models and ANOVA-like inference
Moreira, E. E.
Water Science and Technology
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
title_short Are drought occurrence and severity aggravating? A study on SPI drought class transitions using log-linear models and ANOVA-like inference
title_full Are drought occurrence and severity aggravating? A study on SPI drought class transitions using log-linear models and ANOVA-like inference
title_fullStr Are drought occurrence and severity aggravating? A study on SPI drought class transitions using log-linear models and ANOVA-like inference
title_full_unstemmed Are drought occurrence and severity aggravating? A study on SPI drought class transitions using log-linear models and ANOVA-like inference
title_sort Are drought occurrence and severity aggravating? A study on SPI drought class transitions using log-linear models and ANOVA-like inference
author Moreira, E. E.
author_facet Moreira, E. E.
Mexia, J. T.
Pereira, L. S.
author_role author
author2 Mexia, J. T.
Pereira, L. S.
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv CMA - Centro de Matemática e Aplicações
DM - Departamento de Matemática
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Moreira, E. E.
Mexia, J. T.
Pereira, L. S.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Water Science and Technology
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
topic Water Science and Technology
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
description This work was partially supported by the research project PTDC/AGR-AAM/71649/2006 - Droughts Risk Management: Identification, Monitoring, Characterization, Prediction and Mitigation as well as by CMA/FCT/UNL under the project PEst-OE/MAT/UI0297/2011.
publishDate 2012
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2012-12-01
2012-12-01T00:00:00Z
2019-07-11T22:34:41Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3011-2012
url https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3011-2012
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 1027-5606
PURE: 11578461
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84880671775&partnerID=8YFLogxK
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3011-2012
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 18
application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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