Using the Hurst exponent and entropy measures to predict effective transmissibility in empirical series of malaria incidence

• Autor(a) principal: Sequeira, J.
• Data de Publicação: 2022
• Outros Autores: Louçã, J., Mendes, A. M., Lind, P. G.
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10071/24726
• topic: Malaria; Hurst exponent; Shannon entropy; Long range dependence; Autocorrelation function; Stochastic long memory; Gametocytemia

We analyze the empirical series of malaria incidence, using the concepts of autocorrelation, Hurst exponent and Shannon entropy with the aim of uncovering hidden variables in those series. From the simulations of an agent model for malaria spreading, we first derive models of the malaria incidence, the Hurst exponent and the entropy as functions of gametocytemia, measuring the infectious power of a mosquito to a human host. Second, upon estimating the values of three observables—incidence, Hurst exponent and entropy—from the data set of different malaria empirical series we predict a value of the gametocytemia for each observable. Finally, we show that the independent predictions show considerable consistency with only a few exceptions which are discussed in further detail.