Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10198/18754 |
Resumo: | Climate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the winegrowing regions of the world are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing-season temperatures (GSTs) limited to 13–21 C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change assessment and for grape production, with emphasis on grapevine bioclimatic indices and extreme events (e.g., cold waves, storms, heatwaves). Dynamical downscaling of European Reanalysis-Interim and Max Planck Institute Earth System low-resolution global simulations forced with a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario was performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro Valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986–2005) and future periods (2046–2065, 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events were superimposed over critical phenological phases estimated by using a specific local grapevine varietal phenological model in order to assess their positive or negative implications for wine production in the region. An assessment of the relevance of climate parameters and indices and their progression in recent-past and future climate scenarios with regard to the potential impact on wine production was performed. Results indicate a positive relation between higher growing-season heat accumulations and greater vintage yields. A moderate incidence of very hot days (daily maximum temperature above 35 C) and drought from pre-véraison phenological conditions have a positive association with vintage ratings. However, the mid- and long-term WRF-MPI RCP8.5 future climate scenarios reveal shifts to warmer and drier conditions, with the mean GST not remaining within range for quality wine production in the long-term future climate scenario. These results indicate potential impacts that suggest a range of strategies to maintain wine production and quality in the region. |
id |
RCAP_cb2ba6de20a7824bc672774e47fd698c |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt:10198/18754 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indicesAgrometeorologyBioclimatic indicesClimate change modellingExtreme climate indicesGrapevine phenologyRegional and mesoscale modellingWine productionClimate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the winegrowing regions of the world are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing-season temperatures (GSTs) limited to 13–21 C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change assessment and for grape production, with emphasis on grapevine bioclimatic indices and extreme events (e.g., cold waves, storms, heatwaves). Dynamical downscaling of European Reanalysis-Interim and Max Planck Institute Earth System low-resolution global simulations forced with a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario was performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro Valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986–2005) and future periods (2046–2065, 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events were superimposed over critical phenological phases estimated by using a specific local grapevine varietal phenological model in order to assess their positive or negative implications for wine production in the region. An assessment of the relevance of climate parameters and indices and their progression in recent-past and future climate scenarios with regard to the potential impact on wine production was performed. Results indicate a positive relation between higher growing-season heat accumulations and greater vintage yields. A moderate incidence of very hot days (daily maximum temperature above 35 C) and drought from pre-véraison phenological conditions have a positive association with vintage ratings. However, the mid- and long-term WRF-MPI RCP8.5 future climate scenarios reveal shifts to warmer and drier conditions, with the mean GST not remaining within range for quality wine production in the long-term future climate scenario. These results indicate potential impacts that suggest a range of strategies to maintain wine production and quality in the region.The authors wish to thank the DOUROZONE project (PTDC/AAG-MAA/3335/2014; POCI-01-0145-FEDER- 016778) for financial support through Project 3599 – Promoting the Scientific Production and the Technological Development, and Thematic Networks (3599-PPCDT) – and through FEDER, and the national funds from FCT-Science and Technology Portuguese Foundation for the doctoral grant of D. Blanco-Ward (SFRH/BD/139193/2018). Thanks are also due for the financial support to CESAM (UID/AMB/50017 - POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007638), to FCT/MEC through national funds, and the co-funding by FEDER within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement and Compete 2020.Biblioteca Digital do IPBBlanco-Ward, DanielMonteiro, AlexandraLopes, MyriamBorrego, Carlos S.Silveira, CarlosViceto, CarolinaRocha, AlfredoRibeiro, A.C.Andrade, João VerdialFeliciano, ManuelCastro, João PauloBarreales, DavidNeto, JorgeCarlos, CristinaPeixoto, CarlosMiranda, Ana Isabel2018-01-19T10:00:00Z20192019-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/18754engBlanco-Ward, Daniel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos; Silveira, Carlos; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Ribeiro, António; Andrade, João; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João; Barreales, David; Neto, Jorge; Carlos, Cristina; Peixoto, Carlos; Miranda, Ana (2019). Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 0899-8418. 39, p. 5741-57600899-841810.1002/joc.6185info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-21T10:45:58Zoai:bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt:10198/18754Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T23:10:54.837303Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices |
title |
Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices |
spellingShingle |
Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices Blanco-Ward, Daniel Agrometeorology Bioclimatic indices Climate change modelling Extreme climate indices Grapevine phenology Regional and mesoscale modelling Wine production |
title_short |
Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices |
title_full |
Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices |
title_fullStr |
Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices |
title_sort |
Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices |
author |
Blanco-Ward, Daniel |
author_facet |
Blanco-Ward, Daniel Monteiro, Alexandra Lopes, Myriam Borrego, Carlos S. Silveira, Carlos Viceto, Carolina Rocha, Alfredo Ribeiro, A.C. Andrade, João Verdial Feliciano, Manuel Castro, João Paulo Barreales, David Neto, Jorge Carlos, Cristina Peixoto, Carlos Miranda, Ana Isabel |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Monteiro, Alexandra Lopes, Myriam Borrego, Carlos S. Silveira, Carlos Viceto, Carolina Rocha, Alfredo Ribeiro, A.C. Andrade, João Verdial Feliciano, Manuel Castro, João Paulo Barreales, David Neto, Jorge Carlos, Cristina Peixoto, Carlos Miranda, Ana Isabel |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Blanco-Ward, Daniel Monteiro, Alexandra Lopes, Myriam Borrego, Carlos S. Silveira, Carlos Viceto, Carolina Rocha, Alfredo Ribeiro, A.C. Andrade, João Verdial Feliciano, Manuel Castro, João Paulo Barreales, David Neto, Jorge Carlos, Cristina Peixoto, Carlos Miranda, Ana Isabel |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Agrometeorology Bioclimatic indices Climate change modelling Extreme climate indices Grapevine phenology Regional and mesoscale modelling Wine production |
topic |
Agrometeorology Bioclimatic indices Climate change modelling Extreme climate indices Grapevine phenology Regional and mesoscale modelling Wine production |
description |
Climate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the winegrowing regions of the world are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing-season temperatures (GSTs) limited to 13–21 C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change assessment and for grape production, with emphasis on grapevine bioclimatic indices and extreme events (e.g., cold waves, storms, heatwaves). Dynamical downscaling of European Reanalysis-Interim and Max Planck Institute Earth System low-resolution global simulations forced with a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario was performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro Valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986–2005) and future periods (2046–2065, 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events were superimposed over critical phenological phases estimated by using a specific local grapevine varietal phenological model in order to assess their positive or negative implications for wine production in the region. An assessment of the relevance of climate parameters and indices and their progression in recent-past and future climate scenarios with regard to the potential impact on wine production was performed. Results indicate a positive relation between higher growing-season heat accumulations and greater vintage yields. A moderate incidence of very hot days (daily maximum temperature above 35 C) and drought from pre-véraison phenological conditions have a positive association with vintage ratings. However, the mid- and long-term WRF-MPI RCP8.5 future climate scenarios reveal shifts to warmer and drier conditions, with the mean GST not remaining within range for quality wine production in the long-term future climate scenario. These results indicate potential impacts that suggest a range of strategies to maintain wine production and quality in the region. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-01-19T10:00:00Z 2019 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10198/18754 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10198/18754 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos; Silveira, Carlos; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Ribeiro, António; Andrade, João; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João; Barreales, David; Neto, Jorge; Carlos, Cristina; Peixoto, Carlos; Miranda, Ana (2019). Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 0899-8418. 39, p. 5741-5760 0899-8418 10.1002/joc.6185 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799135376522084352 |