Stock market development, financial development and economic growth in Portugal

• Autor(a) principal: Madeira, Pedro Rafael Correia da Ascenção
• Data de Publicação: 2018
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.6/9847
• topic: Capitalização do Mercado de Capitais; Crescimento Económico; Modelo Var; Portugal; Sistema Financeiro; Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão

Financial system and economic growth are closely related, since a lot of decades this theme had been the subject of many research. As we know financial system might be divided into two components: the stock market and the banking system. This study tests the relationship between stock market, financial system and economic growth for Portugal, using a quarterly data from 1993 to 2016, which as European country had an economy dependent on bank financing. Meanwhile to reach the central point the variables tested was real gross domestic product, stock market capitalization ratio, domestic credit ratio, investment, and for a control variable is utilized the consumer price index. Performed the unit root test to confirm the integration order and the graphical analysis of the variables is concluded that all are I(1), and they are not cointegrated (Johansen test), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling is carried out, also Granger Causality, variance decomposition and impulse response function are discussed. VAR specification tests express normality, absence of autocorrelation and homoscedasticity. As consequence of the integration in the European Monetary Union, occur the physical replacement of the currency, proves to be an economic regime change but also the subprime crisis was proved. There was found an evidence of Granger bidirectional causality between stock market and economic growth. Indeed, economic growth seems to be favorable to banking system, unidirectional causality running was found from economic growth to banking financing.