Stochastic Differential Equations General Models of Individual Growth in Uncertain Environments and Application to Profit Optimization in Livestock Production
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2011 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10174/4574 |
Resumo: | Individual animal growth in a randomly varying environment is modeled using stochastic differential equation models. These models are generalizations of the classical deterministic growth models used in regression methods, but incorporate a random dynamical term describing the effects of environmental and other random fluctuations on the growth process. We describe parameter estimation and prediction methods, illustrating with data on cow growth of the Mertolengo breed raised in Alentejo (Portugal) under natural conditions; see models, their properties and statistical techniques in the references below. We first show that these models outperform the traditional regression models in predictive power for they take into account the dynamical nature of the growth process and its interaction with environmental fluctuations. We then apply the models to profit optimization in livestock production, taking into account production costs and sales revenues. Assuming the animal is to be sold when it reaches some prescribed age, we determine the optimal age at which an animal should be sold in order to maximize profit. Another possibility is to sell the animal when it reaches a prescribed size. The first passage time distribution through a prescribed size is studied and used to determine the optimal size at which the animal should be sold. We then determine which policy (selling at a fixed age or selling at a fixed size) is preferable in terms of profit and compare results with the deterministic case. |
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Stochastic Differential Equations General Models of Individual Growth in Uncertain Environments and Application to Profit Optimization in Livestock Productionstochastic differential equationsindividual growth modelsprofit Optimizationbovine weightIndividual animal growth in a randomly varying environment is modeled using stochastic differential equation models. These models are generalizations of the classical deterministic growth models used in regression methods, but incorporate a random dynamical term describing the effects of environmental and other random fluctuations on the growth process. We describe parameter estimation and prediction methods, illustrating with data on cow growth of the Mertolengo breed raised in Alentejo (Portugal) under natural conditions; see models, their properties and statistical techniques in the references below. We first show that these models outperform the traditional regression models in predictive power for they take into account the dynamical nature of the growth process and its interaction with environmental fluctuations. We then apply the models to profit optimization in livestock production, taking into account production costs and sales revenues. Assuming the animal is to be sold when it reaches some prescribed age, we determine the optimal age at which an animal should be sold in order to maximize profit. Another possibility is to sell the animal when it reaches a prescribed size. The first passage time distribution through a prescribed size is studied and used to determine the optimal size at which the animal should be sold. We then determine which policy (selling at a fixed age or selling at a fixed size) is preferable in terms of profit and compare results with the deterministic case.ISI Publications2012-01-30T16:40:05Z2012-01-302011-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10174/4574http://hdl.handle.net/10174/4574engbraumann@uevora.ptpasf@uevora.ptClara.Carlos@estbarreiro.ips.ptcroquete@uevora.pt340Braumann, Carlos A.Filipe, Patrícia A.Carlos, ClaraRoquete, Carlos J.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-01-03T18:42:18Zoai:dspace.uevora.pt:10174/4574Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T00:59:37.526876Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Stochastic Differential Equations General Models of Individual Growth in Uncertain Environments and Application to Profit Optimization in Livestock Production |
title |
Stochastic Differential Equations General Models of Individual Growth in Uncertain Environments and Application to Profit Optimization in Livestock Production |
spellingShingle |
Stochastic Differential Equations General Models of Individual Growth in Uncertain Environments and Application to Profit Optimization in Livestock Production Braumann, Carlos A. stochastic differential equations individual growth models profit Optimization bovine weight |
title_short |
Stochastic Differential Equations General Models of Individual Growth in Uncertain Environments and Application to Profit Optimization in Livestock Production |
title_full |
Stochastic Differential Equations General Models of Individual Growth in Uncertain Environments and Application to Profit Optimization in Livestock Production |
title_fullStr |
Stochastic Differential Equations General Models of Individual Growth in Uncertain Environments and Application to Profit Optimization in Livestock Production |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stochastic Differential Equations General Models of Individual Growth in Uncertain Environments and Application to Profit Optimization in Livestock Production |
title_sort |
Stochastic Differential Equations General Models of Individual Growth in Uncertain Environments and Application to Profit Optimization in Livestock Production |
author |
Braumann, Carlos A. |
author_facet |
Braumann, Carlos A. Filipe, Patrícia A. Carlos, Clara Roquete, Carlos J. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Filipe, Patrícia A. Carlos, Clara Roquete, Carlos J. |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Braumann, Carlos A. Filipe, Patrícia A. Carlos, Clara Roquete, Carlos J. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
stochastic differential equations individual growth models profit Optimization bovine weight |
topic |
stochastic differential equations individual growth models profit Optimization bovine weight |
description |
Individual animal growth in a randomly varying environment is modeled using stochastic differential equation models. These models are generalizations of the classical deterministic growth models used in regression methods, but incorporate a random dynamical term describing the effects of environmental and other random fluctuations on the growth process. We describe parameter estimation and prediction methods, illustrating with data on cow growth of the Mertolengo breed raised in Alentejo (Portugal) under natural conditions; see models, their properties and statistical techniques in the references below. We first show that these models outperform the traditional regression models in predictive power for they take into account the dynamical nature of the growth process and its interaction with environmental fluctuations. We then apply the models to profit optimization in livestock production, taking into account production costs and sales revenues. Assuming the animal is to be sold when it reaches some prescribed age, we determine the optimal age at which an animal should be sold in order to maximize profit. Another possibility is to sell the animal when it reaches a prescribed size. The first passage time distribution through a prescribed size is studied and used to determine the optimal size at which the animal should be sold. We then determine which policy (selling at a fixed age or selling at a fixed size) is preferable in terms of profit and compare results with the deterministic case. |
publishDate |
2011 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2011-01-01T00:00:00Z 2012-01-30T16:40:05Z 2012-01-30 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/4574 http://hdl.handle.net/10174/4574 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/4574 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
braumann@uevora.pt pasf@uevora.pt Clara.Carlos@estbarreiro.ips.pt croquete@uevora.pt 340 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISI Publications |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISI Publications |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799136479135399936 |