Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.13/2931 |
Resumo: | Tourism is the leading economic sector in most islands and for that reason market trends are closely monitored due to the huge impacts of relatively minor changes in the demand patterns. An interesting line of research regarding the analysis of market trends concerns the examination of time series to get an historical overview of the data patterns. The modelling of demand patterns is obviously dependent on data availability, and the measurement of changes in demand patterns is quite often focused on a few decades. In this paper, we use long-term time-series data to analyse the evolution of the main markets in Madeira, by country of origin, in order to re-examine the Butler life cycle model, based on data available from 1946 onwards. This study is an opportunity to document the historical development of the industry in Madeira and to introduce the discussion about the rejuvenation of a mature destination. Tourism development in Madeira has experienced rapid growth until the late 90s, as one of the leading destinations in the European context. However, annual growth rates are not within acceptable ranges, which lead policy-makers and experts to recommend a thoughtfully assessment of the industry prospects. |
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Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approachMadeira IslandInbound tourismButler´ Life Cycle ModelTime series modeling.Faculdade de Ciências SociaisTourism is the leading economic sector in most islands and for that reason market trends are closely monitored due to the huge impacts of relatively minor changes in the demand patterns. An interesting line of research regarding the analysis of market trends concerns the examination of time series to get an historical overview of the data patterns. The modelling of demand patterns is obviously dependent on data availability, and the measurement of changes in demand patterns is quite often focused on a few decades. In this paper, we use long-term time-series data to analyse the evolution of the main markets in Madeira, by country of origin, in order to re-examine the Butler life cycle model, based on data available from 1946 onwards. This study is an opportunity to document the historical development of the industry in Madeira and to introduce the discussion about the rejuvenation of a mature destination. Tourism development in Madeira has experienced rapid growth until the late 90s, as one of the leading destinations in the European context. However, annual growth rates are not within acceptable ranges, which lead policy-makers and experts to recommend a thoughtfully assessment of the industry prospects.CinTurs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainavility and Well-BeingDigitUMaAlmeida, António Manuel Martins de2020-10-21T09:21:51Z2016-01-01T00:00:00Z2016-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.13/2931engAlmeida, A. M. M. (2016). Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach. Journal of Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, 4(2), 145-156.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2022-09-05T12:55:48Zoai:digituma.uma.pt:10400.13/2931Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T15:05:45.949094Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach |
title |
Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach |
spellingShingle |
Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach Almeida, António Manuel Martins de Madeira Island Inbound tourism Butler´ Life Cycle Model Time series modeling . Faculdade de Ciências Sociais |
title_short |
Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach |
title_full |
Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach |
title_fullStr |
Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach |
title_sort |
Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach |
author |
Almeida, António Manuel Martins de |
author_facet |
Almeida, António Manuel Martins de |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
DigitUMa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Almeida, António Manuel Martins de |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Madeira Island Inbound tourism Butler´ Life Cycle Model Time series modeling . Faculdade de Ciências Sociais |
topic |
Madeira Island Inbound tourism Butler´ Life Cycle Model Time series modeling . Faculdade de Ciências Sociais |
description |
Tourism is the leading economic sector in most islands and for that reason market trends are closely monitored due to the huge impacts of relatively minor changes in the demand patterns. An interesting line of research regarding the analysis of market trends concerns the examination of time series to get an historical overview of the data patterns. The modelling of demand patterns is obviously dependent on data availability, and the measurement of changes in demand patterns is quite often focused on a few decades. In this paper, we use long-term time-series data to analyse the evolution of the main markets in Madeira, by country of origin, in order to re-examine the Butler life cycle model, based on data available from 1946 onwards. This study is an opportunity to document the historical development of the industry in Madeira and to introduce the discussion about the rejuvenation of a mature destination. Tourism development in Madeira has experienced rapid growth until the late 90s, as one of the leading destinations in the European context. However, annual growth rates are not within acceptable ranges, which lead policy-makers and experts to recommend a thoughtfully assessment of the industry prospects. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-01-01T00:00:00Z 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z 2020-10-21T09:21:51Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.13/2931 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.13/2931 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Almeida, A. M. M. (2016). Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach. Journal of Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, 4(2), 145-156. |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
CinTurs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainavility and Well-Being |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
CinTurs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainavility and Well-Being |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799129928664350720 |