Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Bhimjee, D.
Data de Publicação: 2022
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10071/25924
Resumo: The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis detection mechanisms. The present article describes the Adaptive Early Warning Systems (A.E.W.S.) axiomatic approach, as a natural operational extension to E.W.S. testing. This novel protocol upholds the operational dimension of implementing an efficient holistic crisis detection mechanism, a domain which has been hitherto overlooked by the E.W.S. literature. The paper first describes the major axiomatic principles sustaining the A.E.W.S. protocol, which seek to establish universal principles in support of the said protocol. Second, the article also describes a basic universal template for an A.E.W.S. surveillance platform, which duly describes how multiple testing procedures can be integrated into a single crisis detection framework, while targeting multiple segments of the financial markets (such as the conventional and non-conventional segments of the financial markets). Third, the paper also describes the major advantages and disadvantages associated with the implementation of this novel protocol. It is hoped that the effective implementation of the A.E.W.S. protocol as a novel operational framework in the global macroprudential toolkit might help deter the onset of future extreme financial events, by enabling a greater cohesiveness in E.W.S.-related central banking procedures, as well as promoting a greater international central banking cooperation prior to and during financial distress episodes.
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spelling Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approachAdaptive early warning systemsForecastingFinancial crisesCentral BanksFinancial stabilityMacroprudential regulationMonetary policyThe U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis detection mechanisms. The present article describes the Adaptive Early Warning Systems (A.E.W.S.) axiomatic approach, as a natural operational extension to E.W.S. testing. This novel protocol upholds the operational dimension of implementing an efficient holistic crisis detection mechanism, a domain which has been hitherto overlooked by the E.W.S. literature. The paper first describes the major axiomatic principles sustaining the A.E.W.S. protocol, which seek to establish universal principles in support of the said protocol. Second, the article also describes a basic universal template for an A.E.W.S. surveillance platform, which duly describes how multiple testing procedures can be integrated into a single crisis detection framework, while targeting multiple segments of the financial markets (such as the conventional and non-conventional segments of the financial markets). Third, the paper also describes the major advantages and disadvantages associated with the implementation of this novel protocol. It is hoped that the effective implementation of the A.E.W.S. protocol as a novel operational framework in the global macroprudential toolkit might help deter the onset of future extreme financial events, by enabling a greater cohesiveness in E.W.S.-related central banking procedures, as well as promoting a greater international central banking cooperation prior to and during financial distress episodes.Sciendo2022-07-22T12:05:20Z2022-01-01T00:00:00Z20222022-07-22T13:03:34Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10071/25924eng1800-958110.2478/jcbtp-2022-0017Bhimjee, D.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-09T17:40:14Zoai:repositorio.iscte-iul.pt:10071/25924Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:18:36.762490Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach
title Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach
spellingShingle Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach
Bhimjee, D.
Adaptive early warning systems
Forecasting
Financial crises
Central Banks
Financial stability
Macroprudential regulation
Monetary policy
title_short Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach
title_full Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach
title_fullStr Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach
title_full_unstemmed Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach
title_sort Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach
author Bhimjee, D.
author_facet Bhimjee, D.
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bhimjee, D.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Adaptive early warning systems
Forecasting
Financial crises
Central Banks
Financial stability
Macroprudential regulation
Monetary policy
topic Adaptive early warning systems
Forecasting
Financial crises
Central Banks
Financial stability
Macroprudential regulation
Monetary policy
description The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis detection mechanisms. The present article describes the Adaptive Early Warning Systems (A.E.W.S.) axiomatic approach, as a natural operational extension to E.W.S. testing. This novel protocol upholds the operational dimension of implementing an efficient holistic crisis detection mechanism, a domain which has been hitherto overlooked by the E.W.S. literature. The paper first describes the major axiomatic principles sustaining the A.E.W.S. protocol, which seek to establish universal principles in support of the said protocol. Second, the article also describes a basic universal template for an A.E.W.S. surveillance platform, which duly describes how multiple testing procedures can be integrated into a single crisis detection framework, while targeting multiple segments of the financial markets (such as the conventional and non-conventional segments of the financial markets). Third, the paper also describes the major advantages and disadvantages associated with the implementation of this novel protocol. It is hoped that the effective implementation of the A.E.W.S. protocol as a novel operational framework in the global macroprudential toolkit might help deter the onset of future extreme financial events, by enabling a greater cohesiveness in E.W.S.-related central banking procedures, as well as promoting a greater international central banking cooperation prior to and during financial distress episodes.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-07-22T12:05:20Z
2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
2022
2022-07-22T13:03:34Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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url http://hdl.handle.net/10071/25924
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language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 1800-9581
10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0017
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Sciendo
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dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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