Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10071/25924 |
Resumo: | The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis detection mechanisms. The present article describes the Adaptive Early Warning Systems (A.E.W.S.) axiomatic approach, as a natural operational extension to E.W.S. testing. This novel protocol upholds the operational dimension of implementing an efficient holistic crisis detection mechanism, a domain which has been hitherto overlooked by the E.W.S. literature. The paper first describes the major axiomatic principles sustaining the A.E.W.S. protocol, which seek to establish universal principles in support of the said protocol. Second, the article also describes a basic universal template for an A.E.W.S. surveillance platform, which duly describes how multiple testing procedures can be integrated into a single crisis detection framework, while targeting multiple segments of the financial markets (such as the conventional and non-conventional segments of the financial markets). Third, the paper also describes the major advantages and disadvantages associated with the implementation of this novel protocol. It is hoped that the effective implementation of the A.E.W.S. protocol as a novel operational framework in the global macroprudential toolkit might help deter the onset of future extreme financial events, by enabling a greater cohesiveness in E.W.S.-related central banking procedures, as well as promoting a greater international central banking cooperation prior to and during financial distress episodes. |
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Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approachAdaptive early warning systemsForecastingFinancial crisesCentral BanksFinancial stabilityMacroprudential regulationMonetary policyThe U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis detection mechanisms. The present article describes the Adaptive Early Warning Systems (A.E.W.S.) axiomatic approach, as a natural operational extension to E.W.S. testing. This novel protocol upholds the operational dimension of implementing an efficient holistic crisis detection mechanism, a domain which has been hitherto overlooked by the E.W.S. literature. The paper first describes the major axiomatic principles sustaining the A.E.W.S. protocol, which seek to establish universal principles in support of the said protocol. Second, the article also describes a basic universal template for an A.E.W.S. surveillance platform, which duly describes how multiple testing procedures can be integrated into a single crisis detection framework, while targeting multiple segments of the financial markets (such as the conventional and non-conventional segments of the financial markets). Third, the paper also describes the major advantages and disadvantages associated with the implementation of this novel protocol. It is hoped that the effective implementation of the A.E.W.S. protocol as a novel operational framework in the global macroprudential toolkit might help deter the onset of future extreme financial events, by enabling a greater cohesiveness in E.W.S.-related central banking procedures, as well as promoting a greater international central banking cooperation prior to and during financial distress episodes.Sciendo2022-07-22T12:05:20Z2022-01-01T00:00:00Z20222022-07-22T13:03:34Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10071/25924eng1800-958110.2478/jcbtp-2022-0017Bhimjee, D.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-09T17:40:14Zoai:repositorio.iscte-iul.pt:10071/25924Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:18:36.762490Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach |
title |
Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach |
spellingShingle |
Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach Bhimjee, D. Adaptive early warning systems Forecasting Financial crises Central Banks Financial stability Macroprudential regulation Monetary policy |
title_short |
Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach |
title_full |
Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach |
title_fullStr |
Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach |
title_sort |
Adaptive early warning systems: An axiomatic approach |
author |
Bhimjee, D. |
author_facet |
Bhimjee, D. |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Bhimjee, D. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Adaptive early warning systems Forecasting Financial crises Central Banks Financial stability Macroprudential regulation Monetary policy |
topic |
Adaptive early warning systems Forecasting Financial crises Central Banks Financial stability Macroprudential regulation Monetary policy |
description |
The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis detection mechanisms. The present article describes the Adaptive Early Warning Systems (A.E.W.S.) axiomatic approach, as a natural operational extension to E.W.S. testing. This novel protocol upholds the operational dimension of implementing an efficient holistic crisis detection mechanism, a domain which has been hitherto overlooked by the E.W.S. literature. The paper first describes the major axiomatic principles sustaining the A.E.W.S. protocol, which seek to establish universal principles in support of the said protocol. Second, the article also describes a basic universal template for an A.E.W.S. surveillance platform, which duly describes how multiple testing procedures can be integrated into a single crisis detection framework, while targeting multiple segments of the financial markets (such as the conventional and non-conventional segments of the financial markets). Third, the paper also describes the major advantages and disadvantages associated with the implementation of this novel protocol. It is hoped that the effective implementation of the A.E.W.S. protocol as a novel operational framework in the global macroprudential toolkit might help deter the onset of future extreme financial events, by enabling a greater cohesiveness in E.W.S.-related central banking procedures, as well as promoting a greater international central banking cooperation prior to and during financial distress episodes. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-07-22T12:05:20Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z 2022 2022-07-22T13:03:34Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/25924 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/25924 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
1800-9581 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0017 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Sciendo |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Sciendo |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799134745532039168 |