The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2012 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25611 |
Resumo: | We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets; (iv) use quarterly data; and (v) analyse empirical evidence from the US, the UK, Germany and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP); lead to important ‘crowding-out’ effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices. Government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices. The empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model. |
id |
RCAP_d78ef55fe7ace9456ab70c0e3e28a2d9 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/25611 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policyFiscal PolicyBayesian Structural VARWe investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets; (iv) use quarterly data; and (v) analyse empirical evidence from the US, the UK, Germany and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP); lead to important ‘crowding-out’ effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices. Government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices. The empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model.Taylor & Francis GroupRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioSousa, Ricardo M.2022-09-28T11:02:22Z20122012-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25611engAfonso, António and Ricardo M. Sousa. (2012). "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy" .Applied Economics, Vol. 44, No. 34: pp. 4439-4454.1466–4283 (Online)10.1080/00036846.2011.591732info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:55:10Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/25611Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:09:26.225513Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy |
title |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy |
spellingShingle |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy Afonso, António Fiscal Policy Bayesian Structural VAR |
title_short |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy |
title_full |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy |
title_fullStr |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy |
title_full_unstemmed |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy |
title_sort |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy |
author |
Afonso, António |
author_facet |
Afonso, António Sousa, Ricardo M. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sousa, Ricardo M. |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António Sousa, Ricardo M. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Fiscal Policy Bayesian Structural VAR |
topic |
Fiscal Policy Bayesian Structural VAR |
description |
We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets; (iv) use quarterly data; and (v) analyse empirical evidence from the US, the UK, Germany and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP); lead to important ‘crowding-out’ effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices. Government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices. The empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model. |
publishDate |
2012 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2012 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z 2022-09-28T11:02:22Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25611 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25611 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António and Ricardo M. Sousa. (2012). "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy" .Applied Economics, Vol. 44, No. 34: pp. 4439-4454. 1466–4283 (Online) 10.1080/00036846.2011.591732 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Taylor & Francis Group |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Taylor & Francis Group |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799131189319041024 |