Trading on etf mispricing - exploiting market inefficiency and liquidity in volatile markets

• Autor(a) principal: Kellerbach, Maximilian Jannes
• Data de Publicação: 2022
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/156191
• topic: Etf; Financial markets; Volatility; Market efficiency; Mispricing; Quantitative investment strategy; Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão

This work project describes the strategy and results of four independently developed investment strategies. The strategies focus on value and momentum, ETF mispricing, enhanced momentum, and asset switching. The strategies are carried out in periods between 1998 and 2021. Three of the four strategies focus on the U.S. market whereas one is focused on the European market. Due to fundamental differences in their composition and execution, the strategies yield different risk and return profiles; all but one strategy underperform equity and fixed-income securities benchmark indexes. Subsequent portfolio optimization and allocation methods, with the four individual strategies as assets, improve the risk-adjusted return of a combined portfolio in excess of the benchmark indexes. However, the significance of these improved portfolio results is limited due to inconsistent treatment of transaction costs and the small sample period. There is extensive literature on ETF pricing inefficiencies and how they originate from changes in the liquidity of underlying assets and the inability of market makers to exploit these arbitrage opportunities in periods of volatility. Given the growth of ETFs in the past, this paper builds upon existing work and replicates a strategy, evaluating whether ETF ownership contributes to systemic risk in financial markets and creates new opportunities to capitalize on mispricing. It finds that there are new periods of nontrivial net profitability when trading with mispriced ETFs during periods of volatility, but no conclusive evidence for greater systemic risk.