Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.22/4329 |
Resumo: | The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010. |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returnsDetrended fluctuation analysisLong-term memoryPersistenceHurst exponentRescaled-range analysisEconophysicsThe objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.Instituto Politécnico do Porto. Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do PortoRepositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico do PortoGomes, Luís2014-04-29T13:26:24Z20142014-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.22/4329enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-13T12:44:27Zoai:recipp.ipp.pt:10400.22/4329Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:25:13.403112Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns |
title |
Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns |
spellingShingle |
Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns Gomes, Luís Detrended fluctuation analysis Long-term memory Persistence Hurst exponent Rescaled-range analysis Econophysics |
title_short |
Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns |
title_full |
Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns |
title_fullStr |
Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns |
title_full_unstemmed |
Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns |
title_sort |
Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns |
author |
Gomes, Luís |
author_facet |
Gomes, Luís |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico do Porto |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Gomes, Luís |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Detrended fluctuation analysis Long-term memory Persistence Hurst exponent Rescaled-range analysis Econophysics |
topic |
Detrended fluctuation analysis Long-term memory Persistence Hurst exponent Rescaled-range analysis Econophysics |
description |
The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2014-04-29T13:26:24Z 2014 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.22/4329 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.22/4329 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Politécnico do Porto. Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Politécnico do Porto. Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799131345648091136 |