Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10727 |
Resumo: | In the last two decades the internationalisation of the Portuguese economy increased, particularly through outward FDI on the Portuguese-speaking countries. Different studies in economic literature conclude for the existence of a complementary relationship between foreign production and trade in traditional outward investing economies, contributing to the long term sustainable path of the country’s trade balance. In our paper we discuss if this hypothesis holds for a new outward investor like Portugal, with reference to the period 1996-2011. We use a panel data analysis within a framework of gravity models for exports and imports, with a sample composed by EU-15, U.S.A., Brazil, Angola, Spain, Japan and China. Our main conclusion is that the Portuguese outward FDI seems to be negatively related to exports, suggesting a substitution effect, and thus a negative trade balance effect, for the majority of countries in our sample. The exception to this tendency seems to be Spain, confirming and reinforcing a former study for the period 1996-2007. Angola also reveals a positive effect on exports but, in this case, the effect on imports outweighs that on exports, contradicting the results obtained in that same former study. The results we achieved now suggest that the expected positive impact on home country´s trade of the increased internationalisation of the Portuguese economy as an exporter of capital, on the last fifteen years, is not evident and continue to be not predicable with certainty relying on empirical evidence. |
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Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011Foreign Direct InvestmentTradeGravity ModelPortugalPortuguese- Speaking CountriesIn the last two decades the internationalisation of the Portuguese economy increased, particularly through outward FDI on the Portuguese-speaking countries. Different studies in economic literature conclude for the existence of a complementary relationship between foreign production and trade in traditional outward investing economies, contributing to the long term sustainable path of the country’s trade balance. In our paper we discuss if this hypothesis holds for a new outward investor like Portugal, with reference to the period 1996-2011. We use a panel data analysis within a framework of gravity models for exports and imports, with a sample composed by EU-15, U.S.A., Brazil, Angola, Spain, Japan and China. Our main conclusion is that the Portuguese outward FDI seems to be negatively related to exports, suggesting a substitution effect, and thus a negative trade balance effect, for the majority of countries in our sample. The exception to this tendency seems to be Spain, confirming and reinforcing a former study for the period 1996-2007. Angola also reveals a positive effect on exports but, in this case, the effect on imports outweighs that on exports, contradicting the results obtained in that same former study. The results we achieved now suggest that the expected positive impact on home country´s trade of the increased internationalisation of the Portuguese economy as an exporter of capital, on the last fifteen years, is not evident and continue to be not predicable with certainty relying on empirical evidence.ISEG - CEsA/ CSGRepositório da Universidade de LisboaFonseca, MiguelMendonça, AntónioPassos, José2016-01-21T10:49:40Z20162016-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10727engFonseca, Miguel, António Mendonça and José Passos (2016). "Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA / CSG - Documentos de Trabalho nº 138/2016info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:41:01Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/10727Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:57:08.597171Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011 |
title |
Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011 |
spellingShingle |
Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011 Fonseca, Miguel Foreign Direct Investment Trade Gravity Model Portugal Portuguese- Speaking Countries |
title_short |
Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011 |
title_full |
Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011 |
title_fullStr |
Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011 |
title_sort |
Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011 |
author |
Fonseca, Miguel |
author_facet |
Fonseca, Miguel Mendonça, António Passos, José |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Mendonça, António Passos, José |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Fonseca, Miguel Mendonça, António Passos, José |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Foreign Direct Investment Trade Gravity Model Portugal Portuguese- Speaking Countries |
topic |
Foreign Direct Investment Trade Gravity Model Portugal Portuguese- Speaking Countries |
description |
In the last two decades the internationalisation of the Portuguese economy increased, particularly through outward FDI on the Portuguese-speaking countries. Different studies in economic literature conclude for the existence of a complementary relationship between foreign production and trade in traditional outward investing economies, contributing to the long term sustainable path of the country’s trade balance. In our paper we discuss if this hypothesis holds for a new outward investor like Portugal, with reference to the period 1996-2011. We use a panel data analysis within a framework of gravity models for exports and imports, with a sample composed by EU-15, U.S.A., Brazil, Angola, Spain, Japan and China. Our main conclusion is that the Portuguese outward FDI seems to be negatively related to exports, suggesting a substitution effect, and thus a negative trade balance effect, for the majority of countries in our sample. The exception to this tendency seems to be Spain, confirming and reinforcing a former study for the period 1996-2007. Angola also reveals a positive effect on exports but, in this case, the effect on imports outweighs that on exports, contradicting the results obtained in that same former study. The results we achieved now suggest that the expected positive impact on home country´s trade of the increased internationalisation of the Portuguese economy as an exporter of capital, on the last fifteen years, is not evident and continue to be not predicable with certainty relying on empirical evidence. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-01-21T10:49:40Z 2016 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10727 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10727 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Fonseca, Miguel, António Mendonça and José Passos (2016). "Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996 - 2011". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA / CSG - Documentos de Trabalho nº 138/2016 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - CEsA/ CSG |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - CEsA/ CSG |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799131054422884352 |