Tales of the Wakeby Tail and Alternatives When Modelling Extreme Floods
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2024 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://doi.org/10.57805/revstat.v22i1.454 |
Resumo: | Estimation of return levels, based on extreme-value distributions, is of importance in the earth and environmental sciences. The selection of an appropriate probability distribution is crucial. The Wakeby distribution has shown to be an interesting alternative. By simulation studies, we investigate by various means of minimum distance to distinguish between common distributions when modelling extreme events in hydrology. Estimation of parameters is performed by L-moments. Moreover, time series of annual maximum floods from major unregulated rivers in Northern Sweden were analysed with respect to fitting an appropriate distribution. The results of the simulation study shows that the Wakeby distribution has the best fit of the tail for a wide range of sample sizes. For the analysis of extreme floods, the Wakeby distribution is in the majority of cases the best fit by means of minimum distance. However, when considering estimation of return levels by competing distributions, results can vary considerably for longer return periods. |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Tales of the Wakeby Tail and Alternatives When Modelling Extreme FloodsWakeby distributionGEV distributionL-momentsdistance measuresfloodsEstimation of return levels, based on extreme-value distributions, is of importance in the earth and environmental sciences. The selection of an appropriate probability distribution is crucial. The Wakeby distribution has shown to be an interesting alternative. By simulation studies, we investigate by various means of minimum distance to distinguish between common distributions when modelling extreme events in hydrology. Estimation of parameters is performed by L-moments. Moreover, time series of annual maximum floods from major unregulated rivers in Northern Sweden were analysed with respect to fitting an appropriate distribution. The results of the simulation study shows that the Wakeby distribution has the best fit of the tail for a wide range of sample sizes. For the analysis of extreme floods, the Wakeby distribution is in the majority of cases the best fit by means of minimum distance. However, when considering estimation of return levels by competing distributions, results can vary considerably for longer return periods.Statistics Portugal2024-02-22info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.57805/revstat.v22i1.454https://doi.org/10.57805/revstat.v22i1.454REVSTAT-Statistical Journal; Vol. 22 No. 1 (2024): REVSTAT-Statistical Journal; 45–60REVSTAT; Vol. 22 N.º 1 (2024): REVSTAT-Statistical Journal; 45–602183-03711645-6726reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAPenghttps://revstat.ine.pt/index.php/REVSTAT/article/view/454https://revstat.ine.pt/index.php/REVSTAT/article/view/454/683Copyright (c) 2024 REVSTAT-Statistical Journalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessRydén, Jesper2024-02-24T07:12:41Zoai:revstat:article/454Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:11:18.381042Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Tales of the Wakeby Tail and Alternatives When Modelling Extreme Floods |
title |
Tales of the Wakeby Tail and Alternatives When Modelling Extreme Floods |
spellingShingle |
Tales of the Wakeby Tail and Alternatives When Modelling Extreme Floods Rydén, Jesper Wakeby distribution GEV distribution L-moments distance measures floods |
title_short |
Tales of the Wakeby Tail and Alternatives When Modelling Extreme Floods |
title_full |
Tales of the Wakeby Tail and Alternatives When Modelling Extreme Floods |
title_fullStr |
Tales of the Wakeby Tail and Alternatives When Modelling Extreme Floods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tales of the Wakeby Tail and Alternatives When Modelling Extreme Floods |
title_sort |
Tales of the Wakeby Tail and Alternatives When Modelling Extreme Floods |
author |
Rydén, Jesper |
author_facet |
Rydén, Jesper |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Rydén, Jesper |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Wakeby distribution GEV distribution L-moments distance measures floods |
topic |
Wakeby distribution GEV distribution L-moments distance measures floods |
description |
Estimation of return levels, based on extreme-value distributions, is of importance in the earth and environmental sciences. The selection of an appropriate probability distribution is crucial. The Wakeby distribution has shown to be an interesting alternative. By simulation studies, we investigate by various means of minimum distance to distinguish between common distributions when modelling extreme events in hydrology. Estimation of parameters is performed by L-moments. Moreover, time series of annual maximum floods from major unregulated rivers in Northern Sweden were analysed with respect to fitting an appropriate distribution. The results of the simulation study shows that the Wakeby distribution has the best fit of the tail for a wide range of sample sizes. For the analysis of extreme floods, the Wakeby distribution is in the majority of cases the best fit by means of minimum distance. However, when considering estimation of return levels by competing distributions, results can vary considerably for longer return periods. |
publishDate |
2024 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2024-02-22 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.57805/revstat.v22i1.454 https://doi.org/10.57805/revstat.v22i1.454 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.57805/revstat.v22i1.454 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://revstat.ine.pt/index.php/REVSTAT/article/view/454 https://revstat.ine.pt/index.php/REVSTAT/article/view/454/683 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2024 REVSTAT-Statistical Journal info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2024 REVSTAT-Statistical Journal |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Statistics Portugal |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Statistics Portugal |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
REVSTAT-Statistical Journal; Vol. 22 No. 1 (2024): REVSTAT-Statistical Journal; 45–60 REVSTAT; Vol. 22 N.º 1 (2024): REVSTAT-Statistical Journal; 45–60 2183-0371 1645-6726 reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799137763347398656 |