Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Pina, Álvaro M.
Data de Publicação: 2006
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23766
Resumo: Drawing on the European Commission’s Autumn forecasts, I estimate fiscal reaction functions with four different information sets, ranging from budget plans to final outcomes. I also analyse deviations from plans during budget implementation. In a panel of 15 EU countries from 1987 to 2006, moving from plans to final data generally weakens the counter-cyclicality of budget balances and expenditures (though not of revenues), and reinforces electoral effects. Deviations from plans play a negligible role in the former finding, as they are often acyclical; but have a major role in the latter, as they display a clear opportunistic pattern.
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spelling Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomesFiscal PolicyReal-Time DataRevenueExpenditureCyclicalityElectionsDrawing on the European Commission’s Autumn forecasts, I estimate fiscal reaction functions with four different information sets, ranging from budget plans to final outcomes. I also analyse deviations from plans during budget implementation. In a panel of 15 EU countries from 1987 to 2006, moving from plans to final data generally weakens the counter-cyclicality of budget balances and expenditures (though not of revenues), and reinforces electoral effects. Deviations from plans play a negligible role in the former finding, as they are often acyclical; but have a major role in the latter, as they display a clear opportunistic pattern.Banco de PortugalRepositório da Universidade de LisboaPina, Álvaro M.2022-03-11T15:20:40Z2006-042006-04-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23766engPina, Álvaro M. (2009). "Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes". Banco de Portugal. Estudos e Documentos de Trabalho. Working Papers nº 6 | 2006info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:53:22Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/23766Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:07:54.883802Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes
title Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes
spellingShingle Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes
Pina, Álvaro M.
Fiscal Policy
Real-Time Data
Revenue
Expenditure
Cyclicality
Elections
title_short Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes
title_full Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes
title_fullStr Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes
title_full_unstemmed Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes
title_sort Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes
author Pina, Álvaro M.
author_facet Pina, Álvaro M.
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Pina, Álvaro M.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Fiscal Policy
Real-Time Data
Revenue
Expenditure
Cyclicality
Elections
topic Fiscal Policy
Real-Time Data
Revenue
Expenditure
Cyclicality
Elections
description Drawing on the European Commission’s Autumn forecasts, I estimate fiscal reaction functions with four different information sets, ranging from budget plans to final outcomes. I also analyse deviations from plans during budget implementation. In a panel of 15 EU countries from 1987 to 2006, moving from plans to final data generally weakens the counter-cyclicality of budget balances and expenditures (though not of revenues), and reinforces electoral effects. Deviations from plans play a negligible role in the former finding, as they are often acyclical; but have a major role in the latter, as they display a clear opportunistic pattern.
publishDate 2006
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2006-04
2006-04-01T00:00:00Z
2022-03-11T15:20:40Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23766
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23766
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Pina, Álvaro M. (2009). "Elusive counter-cyclicality and deliberate opportunism? Fiscal policy from plans to final outcomes". Banco de Portugal. Estudos e Documentos de Trabalho. Working Papers nº 6 | 2006
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Banco de Portugal
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Banco de Portugal
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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