Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees
| Autor(a) principal: | |
|---|---|
| Data de Publicação: | 2011 |
| Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
| Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/146731 |
Resumo: | Funding: The study in Europe was funded by a European Commission Vth Framework grant (PREDICT-QL4-CT2002-00683). Funding in Chile was provided by project FONDEF DO2I-1140. The authors are grateful for part support in Europe from: the Estonian Scientific Foundation (grant 5696); the Slovenian Ministry for Research (grant 4369-1027); the Spanish Ministry of Health (FIS references: PI041980, PI041771, PI042450) and the Spanish Network of Primary Care Research, red de Investigacion en Actividades Preventivas y Promocion de la salud (ISCIII-RETIC RD06/0018) and SAMSERAP group, and the United Kingdom National Health Service Research and Development office for service support costs in the United Kingdom. The funders had no direct role in the design or conduct of the study, interpretation of the data or review of the manuscript. |
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Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendeesThe predictAL studyGeneralSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingFunding: The study in Europe was funded by a European Commission Vth Framework grant (PREDICT-QL4-CT2002-00683). Funding in Chile was provided by project FONDEF DO2I-1140. The authors are grateful for part support in Europe from: the Estonian Scientific Foundation (grant 5696); the Slovenian Ministry for Research (grant 4369-1027); the Spanish Ministry of Health (FIS references: PI041980, PI041771, PI042450) and the Spanish Network of Primary Care Research, red de Investigacion en Actividades Preventivas y Promocion de la salud (ISCIII-RETIC RD06/0018) and SAMSERAP group, and the United Kingdom National Health Service Research and Development office for service support costs in the United Kingdom. The funders had no direct role in the design or conduct of the study, interpretation of the data or review of the manuscript.Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.NOVA Medical School|Faculdade de Ciências Médicas (NMS|FCM)Centro de Estudos de Doenças Crónicas (CEDOC)RUNKing, MichaelMarston, LouiseŠvab, IgorMaaroos, Heidi IngridGeerlings, Mirjam I.Xavier, MiguelBenjamin, VicenteTorres-Gonzalez, FranciscoBellon-Saameno, Juan AngelRotar, DanicaAluoja, AnuSaldivia, SandraCorrea, BernardoNazareth, Irwin2022-12-28T22:15:26Z2011-082011-08-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/146731eng1932-6203PURE: 49085568https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022175info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T05:27:44Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/146731Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:52:41.255782Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees The predictAL study |
| title |
Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees |
| spellingShingle |
Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees King, Michael General SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
| title_short |
Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees |
| title_full |
Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees |
| title_fullStr |
Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees |
| title_sort |
Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees |
| author |
King, Michael |
| author_facet |
King, Michael Marston, Louise Švab, Igor Maaroos, Heidi Ingrid Geerlings, Mirjam I. Xavier, Miguel Benjamin, Vicente Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel Rotar, Danica Aluoja, Anu Saldivia, Sandra Correa, Bernardo Nazareth, Irwin |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Marston, Louise Švab, Igor Maaroos, Heidi Ingrid Geerlings, Mirjam I. Xavier, Miguel Benjamin, Vicente Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel Rotar, Danica Aluoja, Anu Saldivia, Sandra Correa, Bernardo Nazareth, Irwin |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
NOVA Medical School|Faculdade de Ciências Médicas (NMS|FCM) Centro de Estudos de Doenças Crónicas (CEDOC) RUN |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
King, Michael Marston, Louise Švab, Igor Maaroos, Heidi Ingrid Geerlings, Mirjam I. Xavier, Miguel Benjamin, Vicente Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel Rotar, Danica Aluoja, Anu Saldivia, Sandra Correa, Bernardo Nazareth, Irwin |
| dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
General SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
| topic |
General SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
| description |
Funding: The study in Europe was funded by a European Commission Vth Framework grant (PREDICT-QL4-CT2002-00683). Funding in Chile was provided by project FONDEF DO2I-1140. The authors are grateful for part support in Europe from: the Estonian Scientific Foundation (grant 5696); the Slovenian Ministry for Research (grant 4369-1027); the Spanish Ministry of Health (FIS references: PI041980, PI041771, PI042450) and the Spanish Network of Primary Care Research, red de Investigacion en Actividades Preventivas y Promocion de la salud (ISCIII-RETIC RD06/0018) and SAMSERAP group, and the United Kingdom National Health Service Research and Development office for service support costs in the United Kingdom. The funders had no direct role in the design or conduct of the study, interpretation of the data or review of the manuscript. |
| publishDate |
2011 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2011-08 2011-08-01T00:00:00Z 2022-12-28T22:15:26Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10362/146731 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10362/146731 |
| dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
| language |
eng |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
1932-6203 PURE: 49085568 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022175 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
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application/pdf |
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reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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