) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal).
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10174/14540 |
Resumo: | In this study, the crop yield response of rainfed crops to climate change was evaluated focusing on the most representative crops in the Guadiana river basin. The quantification of crop yields was performed using a simple soil water balance model framework. The herbaceous crop yields were evaluated with the ISAREG model, implementing a water balance approach combined with the Stewart method. A similar water balance approach was used to estimate the yields for the most representative permanent rain-fed woody crops in the region using an alternative spreadsheet-based model, but implementing a more detailed water stress evaluation through the crop cycles. Yields were simulated for two future periods(2011–2040) and (2041–2070) using, as climate inputs, temperature and precipitation series, reflecting a combination of five climate change scenarios (CCS) created using the ensemble-delta technique applied to CMIP3 climate projections datasets to represent different alternative climate change bracketing conditions for rainfall and air temperature. The results showed that comparatively with the reference period climate (1961–1990) rainfed crop yields will decrease in future period 1 (2011–2040) and reach even higher losses in future period 2 (2041–2070). Within the herbaceous crops, sunflower and winter wheat were the most susceptible to yield losses under climate change, reaching estimated maximum losses for future period 2 of respectively 18.5% and 13.6%, followed by natural grown pastures with 11.5%. For woody crops, maximum estimated yields losses were considerably higher for almond (27.2%) than grapevine (5.4%) and olive (14.9%). |
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) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal).Climate changeRainfed agricultureWater balanceCrop yieldsGuadiana river basinIn this study, the crop yield response of rainfed crops to climate change was evaluated focusing on the most representative crops in the Guadiana river basin. The quantification of crop yields was performed using a simple soil water balance model framework. The herbaceous crop yields were evaluated with the ISAREG model, implementing a water balance approach combined with the Stewart method. A similar water balance approach was used to estimate the yields for the most representative permanent rain-fed woody crops in the region using an alternative spreadsheet-based model, but implementing a more detailed water stress evaluation through the crop cycles. Yields were simulated for two future periods(2011–2040) and (2041–2070) using, as climate inputs, temperature and precipitation series, reflecting a combination of five climate change scenarios (CCS) created using the ensemble-delta technique applied to CMIP3 climate projections datasets to represent different alternative climate change bracketing conditions for rainfall and air temperature. The results showed that comparatively with the reference period climate (1961–1990) rainfed crop yields will decrease in future period 1 (2011–2040) and reach even higher losses in future period 2 (2041–2070). Within the herbaceous crops, sunflower and winter wheat were the most susceptible to yield losses under climate change, reaching estimated maximum losses for future period 2 of respectively 18.5% and 13.6%, followed by natural grown pastures with 11.5%. For woody crops, maximum estimated yields losses were considerably higher for almond (27.2%) than grapevine (5.4%) and olive (14.9%).Elsevier2015-05-29T10:26:11Z2015-05-292015-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10174/14540http://hdl.handle.net/10174/14540porValverde, P., Carvalho, M., Serralheiro R.,∗, Maia R., Ramos, V., Oliveira, B. (2015) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal). Agricultural Water Management 150 (2015) 35–45.pedrovalv@gmail.commjc@uevora.ptricardo@uevora.ptndndnd580Valverde, PedroCarvalho, MárioSerralheiro, RicardoMaia, RodrigoRamos, VanessaOliveira, Brunoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-01-03T19:00:41Zoai:dspace.uevora.pt:10174/14540Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T01:07:41.886989Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal). |
title |
) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal). |
spellingShingle |
) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal). Valverde, Pedro Climate change Rainfed agriculture Water balance Crop yields Guadiana river basin |
title_short |
) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal). |
title_full |
) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal). |
title_fullStr |
) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal). |
title_full_unstemmed |
) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal). |
title_sort |
) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal). |
author |
Valverde, Pedro |
author_facet |
Valverde, Pedro Carvalho, Mário Serralheiro, Ricardo Maia, Rodrigo Ramos, Vanessa Oliveira, Bruno |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Carvalho, Mário Serralheiro, Ricardo Maia, Rodrigo Ramos, Vanessa Oliveira, Bruno |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Valverde, Pedro Carvalho, Mário Serralheiro, Ricardo Maia, Rodrigo Ramos, Vanessa Oliveira, Bruno |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Climate change Rainfed agriculture Water balance Crop yields Guadiana river basin |
topic |
Climate change Rainfed agriculture Water balance Crop yields Guadiana river basin |
description |
In this study, the crop yield response of rainfed crops to climate change was evaluated focusing on the most representative crops in the Guadiana river basin. The quantification of crop yields was performed using a simple soil water balance model framework. The herbaceous crop yields were evaluated with the ISAREG model, implementing a water balance approach combined with the Stewart method. A similar water balance approach was used to estimate the yields for the most representative permanent rain-fed woody crops in the region using an alternative spreadsheet-based model, but implementing a more detailed water stress evaluation through the crop cycles. Yields were simulated for two future periods(2011–2040) and (2041–2070) using, as climate inputs, temperature and precipitation series, reflecting a combination of five climate change scenarios (CCS) created using the ensemble-delta technique applied to CMIP3 climate projections datasets to represent different alternative climate change bracketing conditions for rainfall and air temperature. The results showed that comparatively with the reference period climate (1961–1990) rainfed crop yields will decrease in future period 1 (2011–2040) and reach even higher losses in future period 2 (2041–2070). Within the herbaceous crops, sunflower and winter wheat were the most susceptible to yield losses under climate change, reaching estimated maximum losses for future period 2 of respectively 18.5% and 13.6%, followed by natural grown pastures with 11.5%. For woody crops, maximum estimated yields losses were considerably higher for almond (27.2%) than grapevine (5.4%) and olive (14.9%). |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015-05-29T10:26:11Z 2015-05-29 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/14540 http://hdl.handle.net/10174/14540 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/14540 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Valverde, P., Carvalho, M., Serralheiro R.,∗, Maia R., Ramos, V., Oliveira, B. (2015) Climate change impacts on rainfed agriculture in the Guadiana riverbasin (Portugal). Agricultural Water Management 150 (2015) 35–45. pedrovalv@gmail.com mjc@uevora.pt ricardo@uevora.pt nd nd nd 580 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799136560998776832 |