Assessing risk and prioritizing safety interventions in human settlements affected by large wildfires
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44550 |
Resumo: | The large wildfires of June 2017 disturbed many communities in central Portugal. The civil parish of Alvares was severely affected, with about 60% of its area burnt. Assessing the risk of large wildfires affecting local communities is becoming increasingly important, to reduce potential losses in the future. In this study, we assessed wildfire risk for the 36 villages of Alvares parish, by combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis at the settlement scale. Hazard was obtained from fire spread simulations, which integrated exposure together with population and building density within each village. Vulnerability was based on the sociodemographic characteristics of the population, ranked with a hierarchical cluster analysis. Coping capacity was also integrated, considering the distance of each village to the fire station and the time needed for residents to reach a shelter. We simulated 12 different land management scenarios, regarding the implementation of a fuel-break network and the level of forest management activities. The potential effects of each scenario in the exposure and risk levels of the settlements were evaluated. The results show that, for a business-as-usual scenario, 36% of the villages are at high or very high risk of wildfires. Examining each risk component, 28% of the villages are highly exposed, 44% are highly vulnerable, and 22% do not have a potential shelter on-site, calling for different intervention strategies in each specific risk dimension. All the land management scenarios, even if designed for other purposes than the protection of settlements, could decrease the proportion of highly exposed villages at different levels, up to a maximum of 61%. These findings can contribute to adjust prevention and mitigation strategies to the risk levels and the characteristics of the population and the territory, and to prioritize the protection and emergency actions at the local scale. |
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Assessing risk and prioritizing safety interventions in human settlements affected by large wildfiresWildfire riskVulnerability assessmentForest managementCoping capacityProtection of villagesLocal scaleThe large wildfires of June 2017 disturbed many communities in central Portugal. The civil parish of Alvares was severely affected, with about 60% of its area burnt. Assessing the risk of large wildfires affecting local communities is becoming increasingly important, to reduce potential losses in the future. In this study, we assessed wildfire risk for the 36 villages of Alvares parish, by combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis at the settlement scale. Hazard was obtained from fire spread simulations, which integrated exposure together with population and building density within each village. Vulnerability was based on the sociodemographic characteristics of the population, ranked with a hierarchical cluster analysis. Coping capacity was also integrated, considering the distance of each village to the fire station and the time needed for residents to reach a shelter. We simulated 12 different land management scenarios, regarding the implementation of a fuel-break network and the level of forest management activities. The potential effects of each scenario in the exposure and risk levels of the settlements were evaluated. The results show that, for a business-as-usual scenario, 36% of the villages are at high or very high risk of wildfires. Examining each risk component, 28% of the villages are highly exposed, 44% are highly vulnerable, and 22% do not have a potential shelter on-site, calling for different intervention strategies in each specific risk dimension. All the land management scenarios, even if designed for other purposes than the protection of settlements, could decrease the proportion of highly exposed villages at different levels, up to a maximum of 61%. These findings can contribute to adjust prevention and mitigation strategies to the risk levels and the characteristics of the population and the territory, and to prioritize the protection and emergency actions at the local scale.MDPIRepositório da Universidade de LisboaOliveira, SandraGonçalves, AnaBenali, AkliSá, AnaZêzere, JoséPereira, José Miguel2020-10-09T11:23:35Z20202020-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/44550engOliveira, S., Gonçalves, A., Benali, A., Sá, A., Zêzere, J. L., & Pereira, J. M. (2020). Assessing Risk and Prioritizing Safety Interventions in Human Settlements Affected by Large Wildfires. Forests, 11(8), 859. https://doi.org/10.3390/f110808591999-490710.3390/f11080859info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:45:40Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/44550Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:57:06.507133Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Assessing risk and prioritizing safety interventions in human settlements affected by large wildfires |
title |
Assessing risk and prioritizing safety interventions in human settlements affected by large wildfires |
spellingShingle |
Assessing risk and prioritizing safety interventions in human settlements affected by large wildfires Oliveira, Sandra Wildfire risk Vulnerability assessment Forest management Coping capacity Protection of villages Local scale |
title_short |
Assessing risk and prioritizing safety interventions in human settlements affected by large wildfires |
title_full |
Assessing risk and prioritizing safety interventions in human settlements affected by large wildfires |
title_fullStr |
Assessing risk and prioritizing safety interventions in human settlements affected by large wildfires |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing risk and prioritizing safety interventions in human settlements affected by large wildfires |
title_sort |
Assessing risk and prioritizing safety interventions in human settlements affected by large wildfires |
author |
Oliveira, Sandra |
author_facet |
Oliveira, Sandra Gonçalves, Ana Benali, Akli Sá, Ana Zêzere, José Pereira, José Miguel |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Gonçalves, Ana Benali, Akli Sá, Ana Zêzere, José Pereira, José Miguel |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Oliveira, Sandra Gonçalves, Ana Benali, Akli Sá, Ana Zêzere, José Pereira, José Miguel |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Wildfire risk Vulnerability assessment Forest management Coping capacity Protection of villages Local scale |
topic |
Wildfire risk Vulnerability assessment Forest management Coping capacity Protection of villages Local scale |
description |
The large wildfires of June 2017 disturbed many communities in central Portugal. The civil parish of Alvares was severely affected, with about 60% of its area burnt. Assessing the risk of large wildfires affecting local communities is becoming increasingly important, to reduce potential losses in the future. In this study, we assessed wildfire risk for the 36 villages of Alvares parish, by combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis at the settlement scale. Hazard was obtained from fire spread simulations, which integrated exposure together with population and building density within each village. Vulnerability was based on the sociodemographic characteristics of the population, ranked with a hierarchical cluster analysis. Coping capacity was also integrated, considering the distance of each village to the fire station and the time needed for residents to reach a shelter. We simulated 12 different land management scenarios, regarding the implementation of a fuel-break network and the level of forest management activities. The potential effects of each scenario in the exposure and risk levels of the settlements were evaluated. The results show that, for a business-as-usual scenario, 36% of the villages are at high or very high risk of wildfires. Examining each risk component, 28% of the villages are highly exposed, 44% are highly vulnerable, and 22% do not have a potential shelter on-site, calling for different intervention strategies in each specific risk dimension. All the land management scenarios, even if designed for other purposes than the protection of settlements, could decrease the proportion of highly exposed villages at different levels, up to a maximum of 61%. These findings can contribute to adjust prevention and mitigation strategies to the risk levels and the characteristics of the population and the territory, and to prioritize the protection and emergency actions at the local scale. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-10-09T11:23:35Z 2020 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44550 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44550 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Oliveira, S., Gonçalves, A., Benali, A., Sá, A., Zêzere, J. L., & Pereira, J. M. (2020). Assessing Risk and Prioritizing Safety Interventions in Human Settlements Affected by Large Wildfires. Forests, 11(8), 859. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11080859 1999-4907 10.3390/f11080859 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
MDPI |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
MDPI |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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