Equity valuation : Canadian National Railway

• Autor(a) principal: Pach, Oliver Franz-Hermann
• Data de Publicação: 2022
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/40663
• topic: Equity valuation; Company valuation; Cost of capital; Financial forecast; Analyst report; Stock analysis; Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão

This dissertation with the title Equity Valuation – Canadian National Railway was written by Oliver Franz-Hermann Pach. The master thesis deals with the determination of the fair share value of Canadian National Railway. First, the author reviews the state-of-the-art methods for equity valuation in a literature review. Then, an analysis of the industry and the company itself is conducted and risks are highlighted. In the valuation section, a DCF valuation, sensitivity analysis and the modeling of two different scenarios are applied. In the DCF valuation, revenues and costs are forecasted, and the free cash flow to firm (FCFF) is determined, which in turn is discounted to the current value using the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). In addition, a valuation is performed using relative valuation approaches. Finally, the calculation of the value-at-risk for different time periods is intended to illustrate the risk of an investment. Both methods achieve slightly different results, the DCF and the scenarios indicate a slight undervaluation of CNR whereas the multiples rather show a slight downside. All in all, a target price of CAD 151 and a HOLD recommendation is arrived at. The own analysis will also be compared with an existing analyst report from Vertical Research Partners to identify similarities and differences.