Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Agnello, Luca
Data de Publicação: 2012
Outros Autores: Castro, Vítor, Sousa, Ricardo M.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/22470
Resumo: Building on a narrative approach to identify episodes of fiscal consolidation, data for a group of 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009 and both continuous-time and discrete-time duration models, we find evidence suggesting that likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending increases over time, but only for programs that last less than six years. Additionally, fiscal consolidations tend to last longer in non-European than in European countries. Our results emphasize that chronic fiscal imbalances might lead to a vicious austerity cycle, while discipline in the behavior of fiscal authorities is a means of achieving credible and shorter adjustment measures.
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spelling Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?Fiscal consolidationsDuration analysisWeibull ModelDuration dependenceChange-pointsBuilding on a narrative approach to identify episodes of fiscal consolidation, data for a group of 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009 and both continuous-time and discrete-time duration models, we find evidence suggesting that likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending increases over time, but only for programs that last less than six years. Additionally, fiscal consolidations tend to last longer in non-European than in European countries. Our results emphasize that chronic fiscal imbalances might lead to a vicious austerity cycle, while discipline in the behavior of fiscal authorities is a means of achieving credible and shorter adjustment measures.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)Universidade do MinhoAgnello, LucaCastro, VítorSousa, Ricardo M.20122012-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/22470enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:47:58Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/22470Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T19:46:06.824317Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?
title Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?
spellingShingle Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?
Agnello, Luca
Fiscal consolidations
Duration analysis
Weibull Model
Duration dependence
Change-points
title_short Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?
title_full Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?
title_fullStr Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?
title_full_unstemmed Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?
title_sort Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?
author Agnello, Luca
author_facet Agnello, Luca
Castro, Vítor
Sousa, Ricardo M.
author_role author
author2 Castro, Vítor
Sousa, Ricardo M.
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Agnello, Luca
Castro, Vítor
Sousa, Ricardo M.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Fiscal consolidations
Duration analysis
Weibull Model
Duration dependence
Change-points
topic Fiscal consolidations
Duration analysis
Weibull Model
Duration dependence
Change-points
description Building on a narrative approach to identify episodes of fiscal consolidation, data for a group of 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009 and both continuous-time and discrete-time duration models, we find evidence suggesting that likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending increases over time, but only for programs that last less than six years. Additionally, fiscal consolidations tend to last longer in non-European than in European countries. Our results emphasize that chronic fiscal imbalances might lead to a vicious austerity cycle, while discipline in the behavior of fiscal authorities is a means of achieving credible and shorter adjustment measures.
publishDate 2012
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2012
2012-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1822/22470
url http://hdl.handle.net/1822/22470
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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