The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/62668 |
Resumo: | Current approaches to project spatial biodiversity responses to climate change mainly focus on the direct effects of climate on species while regarding land use and land cover as constant or prescribed by global land-use scenarios. However, local land-use decisions are often affected by climate change and biodiversity on top of socioeconomic and policy drivers. To realistically understand and predict climate impacts on biodiversity, it is, therefore, necessary to integrate both direct and indirect effects (via climate-driven land-use change) of climate change on biodiversity.In this perspective paper, we outline how biodiversity models could be better integrated with regional, climate-driven land-use models. We initially provide a short, non-exhaustive review of empirical and modelling approaches to land-use and land-cover change (LU) and biodiversity (BD) change at regional scales, which forms the base for our perspective about improved integration of LU and BD models. We consider a diversity of approaches, with a special emphasis on mechanistic models. We also look at current levels of integration and at model properties, such as scales, inputs and outputs, to further identify integration challenges and opportunities.We find that LU integration in BD models is more frequent than the other way around and has been achieved at different levels: from overlapping predictions to simultaneously coupled simulations (i.e. bidirectional effects). Of the integrated LU-BD socio-ecological models, some studies included climate change effects on LU, but the relative contribution of direct vs. indirect effects of climate change on BD remains a key research challenge.Important research avenues include concerted efforts in harmonizing spatial and temporal resolution, disentangling direct and indirect effects of climate change on biodiversity, explicitly accounting for bidirectional feedbacks, and ultimately feeding socio-ecological systems back into climate predictions. These avenues can be navigated by matching models, plugins for format and resolution conversion, and increasing the land-use forecast horizon with adequate uncertainty. Recent developments of coupled models show that such integration is achievable and can lead to novel insights into climate–land use–biodiversity relations. |
id |
RCAP_f34c86ecf7b76343aba357826c0200ee |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/62668 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity modelsCurrent approaches to project spatial biodiversity responses to climate change mainly focus on the direct effects of climate on species while regarding land use and land cover as constant or prescribed by global land-use scenarios. However, local land-use decisions are often affected by climate change and biodiversity on top of socioeconomic and policy drivers. To realistically understand and predict climate impacts on biodiversity, it is, therefore, necessary to integrate both direct and indirect effects (via climate-driven land-use change) of climate change on biodiversity.In this perspective paper, we outline how biodiversity models could be better integrated with regional, climate-driven land-use models. We initially provide a short, non-exhaustive review of empirical and modelling approaches to land-use and land-cover change (LU) and biodiversity (BD) change at regional scales, which forms the base for our perspective about improved integration of LU and BD models. We consider a diversity of approaches, with a special emphasis on mechanistic models. We also look at current levels of integration and at model properties, such as scales, inputs and outputs, to further identify integration challenges and opportunities.We find that LU integration in BD models is more frequent than the other way around and has been achieved at different levels: from overlapping predictions to simultaneously coupled simulations (i.e. bidirectional effects). Of the integrated LU-BD socio-ecological models, some studies included climate change effects on LU, but the relative contribution of direct vs. indirect effects of climate change on BD remains a key research challenge.Important research avenues include concerted efforts in harmonizing spatial and temporal resolution, disentangling direct and indirect effects of climate change on biodiversity, explicitly accounting for bidirectional feedbacks, and ultimately feeding socio-ecological systems back into climate predictions. These avenues can be navigated by matching models, plugins for format and resolution conversion, and increasing the land-use forecast horizon with adequate uncertainty. Recent developments of coupled models show that such integration is achievable and can lead to novel insights into climate–land use–biodiversity relations.British Ecological SocietyRepositório da Universidade de LisboaCabral, Juliano SarmentoMendoza‐Ponce, AlmaP. Silva, AndréOberpriller, JohannesMimet, AnneKieslinger, JuliaBerger, ThomasBlechschmidt, JanaBrönner, MaximilianClassen, AliceFallert, StefanHartig, FlorianHof, ChristianHoffmann, MarkusKnoke, ThomasKrause, AndreasLewerentz, AnnePohle, PerditaRaeder, UtaRammig, AnjaRedlich, SarahRubanschi, SvenStetter, ChristianWeisser, WolfgangVedder, DanielVerburg, Peter H.Zurell, Damaris2024-02-16T14:35:34Z2023-062023-06-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/62668engCabral, J. S., Mendoza-Ponce, A., da Silva, A. P., Oberpriller, J., Mimet, A., Kieslinger, J., Berger, T., Blechschmidt, J., Brönner, M., Classen, A., Fallert, S., Hartig, F., Hof, C., Hoffmann, M., Knoke, T., Krause, A., Lewerentz, A., Pohle, P., Raeder, U. ... Zurell, D. (2023). The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land-use– biodiversity models. People and Nature, 00, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.1047210.1002/pan3.10472info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-02-19T01:19:17Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/62668Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:38:59.396390Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models |
title |
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models |
spellingShingle |
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models Cabral, Juliano Sarmento |
title_short |
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models |
title_full |
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models |
title_fullStr |
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models |
title_full_unstemmed |
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models |
title_sort |
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models |
author |
Cabral, Juliano Sarmento |
author_facet |
Cabral, Juliano Sarmento Mendoza‐Ponce, Alma P. Silva, André Oberpriller, Johannes Mimet, Anne Kieslinger, Julia Berger, Thomas Blechschmidt, Jana Brönner, Maximilian Classen, Alice Fallert, Stefan Hartig, Florian Hof, Christian Hoffmann, Markus Knoke, Thomas Krause, Andreas Lewerentz, Anne Pohle, Perdita Raeder, Uta Rammig, Anja Redlich, Sarah Rubanschi, Sven Stetter, Christian Weisser, Wolfgang Vedder, Daniel Verburg, Peter H. Zurell, Damaris |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Mendoza‐Ponce, Alma P. Silva, André Oberpriller, Johannes Mimet, Anne Kieslinger, Julia Berger, Thomas Blechschmidt, Jana Brönner, Maximilian Classen, Alice Fallert, Stefan Hartig, Florian Hof, Christian Hoffmann, Markus Knoke, Thomas Krause, Andreas Lewerentz, Anne Pohle, Perdita Raeder, Uta Rammig, Anja Redlich, Sarah Rubanschi, Sven Stetter, Christian Weisser, Wolfgang Vedder, Daniel Verburg, Peter H. Zurell, Damaris |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Cabral, Juliano Sarmento Mendoza‐Ponce, Alma P. Silva, André Oberpriller, Johannes Mimet, Anne Kieslinger, Julia Berger, Thomas Blechschmidt, Jana Brönner, Maximilian Classen, Alice Fallert, Stefan Hartig, Florian Hof, Christian Hoffmann, Markus Knoke, Thomas Krause, Andreas Lewerentz, Anne Pohle, Perdita Raeder, Uta Rammig, Anja Redlich, Sarah Rubanschi, Sven Stetter, Christian Weisser, Wolfgang Vedder, Daniel Verburg, Peter H. Zurell, Damaris |
description |
Current approaches to project spatial biodiversity responses to climate change mainly focus on the direct effects of climate on species while regarding land use and land cover as constant or prescribed by global land-use scenarios. However, local land-use decisions are often affected by climate change and biodiversity on top of socioeconomic and policy drivers. To realistically understand and predict climate impacts on biodiversity, it is, therefore, necessary to integrate both direct and indirect effects (via climate-driven land-use change) of climate change on biodiversity.In this perspective paper, we outline how biodiversity models could be better integrated with regional, climate-driven land-use models. We initially provide a short, non-exhaustive review of empirical and modelling approaches to land-use and land-cover change (LU) and biodiversity (BD) change at regional scales, which forms the base for our perspective about improved integration of LU and BD models. We consider a diversity of approaches, with a special emphasis on mechanistic models. We also look at current levels of integration and at model properties, such as scales, inputs and outputs, to further identify integration challenges and opportunities.We find that LU integration in BD models is more frequent than the other way around and has been achieved at different levels: from overlapping predictions to simultaneously coupled simulations (i.e. bidirectional effects). Of the integrated LU-BD socio-ecological models, some studies included climate change effects on LU, but the relative contribution of direct vs. indirect effects of climate change on BD remains a key research challenge.Important research avenues include concerted efforts in harmonizing spatial and temporal resolution, disentangling direct and indirect effects of climate change on biodiversity, explicitly accounting for bidirectional feedbacks, and ultimately feeding socio-ecological systems back into climate predictions. These avenues can be navigated by matching models, plugins for format and resolution conversion, and increasing the land-use forecast horizon with adequate uncertainty. Recent developments of coupled models show that such integration is achievable and can lead to novel insights into climate–land use–biodiversity relations. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-06 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z 2024-02-16T14:35:34Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/62668 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/62668 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Cabral, J. S., Mendoza-Ponce, A., da Silva, A. P., Oberpriller, J., Mimet, A., Kieslinger, J., Berger, T., Blechschmidt, J., Brönner, M., Classen, A., Fallert, S., Hartig, F., Hof, C., Hoffmann, M., Knoke, T., Krause, A., Lewerentz, A., Pohle, P., Raeder, U. ... Zurell, D. (2023). The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land-use– biodiversity models. People and Nature, 00, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10472 10.1002/pan3.10472 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
British Ecological Society |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
British Ecological Society |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799137439934054400 |