A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001 |
Resumo: | A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections. Economic performance is thought to be a powerful driver of incumbent electoral performance, and GDP growth and unemployment to be the “big two” factors involved. However, while in the 2011 elections, under a profound economic recession and growing unemployment, the Socialist incumbents lost about one-fourth of the electorate, the center-right coalition experienced losses of similar magnitude in 2015 under a recovering economy and growing employment. Why has this happened? I explore three hypotheses: (1) the economy became a less salient issue in 2015; (2) responsibility for economic outcomes became more blurred in 2015; and (3) national economic evaluations were more contaminated by partisanship and affected by cognitive resources and personal economic experiences in 2015. |
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A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese electionselectionseconomic votingmotivated reasoningausterity policiesA tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections. Economic performance is thought to be a powerful driver of incumbent electoral performance, and GDP growth and unemployment to be the “big two” factors involved. However, while in the 2011 elections, under a profound economic recession and growing unemployment, the Socialist incumbents lost about one-fourth of the electorate, the center-right coalition experienced losses of similar magnitude in 2015 under a recovering economy and growing employment. Why has this happened? I explore three hypotheses: (1) the economy became a less salient issue in 2015; (2) responsibility for economic outcomes became more blurred in 2015; and (3) national economic evaluations were more contaminated by partisanship and affected by cognitive resources and personal economic experiences in 2015.Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa2017-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articletext/htmlhttp://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001Análise Social n.225 2017reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAPenghttp://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001Magalhães,Pedro C.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-02-06T16:57:13Zoai:scielo:S0003-25732017000400001Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:14:29.347210Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections |
title |
A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections |
spellingShingle |
A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections Magalhães,Pedro C. elections economic voting motivated reasoning austerity policies |
title_short |
A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections |
title_full |
A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections |
title_fullStr |
A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections |
title_full_unstemmed |
A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections |
title_sort |
A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections |
author |
Magalhães,Pedro C. |
author_facet |
Magalhães,Pedro C. |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Magalhães,Pedro C. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
elections economic voting motivated reasoning austerity policies |
topic |
elections economic voting motivated reasoning austerity policies |
description |
A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections. Economic performance is thought to be a powerful driver of incumbent electoral performance, and GDP growth and unemployment to be the “big two” factors involved. However, while in the 2011 elections, under a profound economic recession and growing unemployment, the Socialist incumbents lost about one-fourth of the electorate, the center-right coalition experienced losses of similar magnitude in 2015 under a recovering economy and growing employment. Why has this happened? I explore three hypotheses: (1) the economy became a less salient issue in 2015; (2) responsibility for economic outcomes became more blurred in 2015; and (3) national economic evaluations were more contaminated by partisanship and affected by cognitive resources and personal economic experiences in 2015. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017-12-01 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001 |
url |
http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Análise Social n.225 2017 reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
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1799137246810472448 |