Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.9/4044 |
Resumo: | ABSTRACT: n recent years, there has been a significant increase in investment in renewable energy sources, leading to the decarbonization of the electricity sector. Accordingly, a key concern is the influence of this process on future electricity market prices, which are expected to decrease with the increasing generation of renewable power. This is important for both current and future investors, as it can affect profitability. To address these concerns, a long-term analysis is proposed here to examine the influence of the future electricity mix on Iberian electricity prices in 2030. In this study, we employed artificial intelligence forecasting models that incorporated the main electricity price-driven components of MIBEL, providing accurate predictions for the real operation of the market. These can be extrapolated into the future to predict electricity prices in a scenario with high renewable power penetration. The results, obtained considering a framework featuring an increase in the penetration of renewables into MIBEL of up to 80% in 2030, showed that electricity prices are expected to decrease by around 50% in 2030 when compared to 2019, and there will be a new pattern of electricity prices throughout the year due to the uneven distribution of renewable electricity. The study's findings are relevant for ongoing research on the unique challenges of energy markets with high levels of renewable generation. |
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Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market PricesRenewable energiesElectricity marketsArtificial neural networksABSTRACT: n recent years, there has been a significant increase in investment in renewable energy sources, leading to the decarbonization of the electricity sector. Accordingly, a key concern is the influence of this process on future electricity market prices, which are expected to decrease with the increasing generation of renewable power. This is important for both current and future investors, as it can affect profitability. To address these concerns, a long-term analysis is proposed here to examine the influence of the future electricity mix on Iberian electricity prices in 2030. In this study, we employed artificial intelligence forecasting models that incorporated the main electricity price-driven components of MIBEL, providing accurate predictions for the real operation of the market. These can be extrapolated into the future to predict electricity prices in a scenario with high renewable power penetration. The results, obtained considering a framework featuring an increase in the penetration of renewables into MIBEL of up to 80% in 2030, showed that electricity prices are expected to decrease by around 50% in 2030 when compared to 2019, and there will be a new pattern of electricity prices throughout the year due to the uneven distribution of renewable electricity. The study's findings are relevant for ongoing research on the unique challenges of energy markets with high levels of renewable generation.MDPIRepositório do LNEGLeal, PedroCastro, RuiLopes, Fernando2023-05-08T09:41:09Z2023-022023-02-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.9/4044engLeal, P... [et.al.] - Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices. In: Energies, 2023, vol. 16 (3), article nº 105410.3390/en160310541996-1073info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-05-14T06:16:34Zoai:repositorio.lneg.pt:10400.9/4044Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:52:03.009349Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
title |
Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
spellingShingle |
Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices Leal, Pedro Renewable energies Electricity markets Artificial neural networks |
title_short |
Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
title_full |
Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
title_fullStr |
Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
title_sort |
Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
author |
Leal, Pedro |
author_facet |
Leal, Pedro Castro, Rui Lopes, Fernando |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Castro, Rui Lopes, Fernando |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório do LNEG |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Leal, Pedro Castro, Rui Lopes, Fernando |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Renewable energies Electricity markets Artificial neural networks |
topic |
Renewable energies Electricity markets Artificial neural networks |
description |
ABSTRACT: n recent years, there has been a significant increase in investment in renewable energy sources, leading to the decarbonization of the electricity sector. Accordingly, a key concern is the influence of this process on future electricity market prices, which are expected to decrease with the increasing generation of renewable power. This is important for both current and future investors, as it can affect profitability. To address these concerns, a long-term analysis is proposed here to examine the influence of the future electricity mix on Iberian electricity prices in 2030. In this study, we employed artificial intelligence forecasting models that incorporated the main electricity price-driven components of MIBEL, providing accurate predictions for the real operation of the market. These can be extrapolated into the future to predict electricity prices in a scenario with high renewable power penetration. The results, obtained considering a framework featuring an increase in the penetration of renewables into MIBEL of up to 80% in 2030, showed that electricity prices are expected to decrease by around 50% in 2030 when compared to 2019, and there will be a new pattern of electricity prices throughout the year due to the uneven distribution of renewable electricity. The study's findings are relevant for ongoing research on the unique challenges of energy markets with high levels of renewable generation. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-05-08T09:41:09Z 2023-02 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.9/4044 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.9/4044 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Leal, P... [et.al.] - Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices. In: Energies, 2023, vol. 16 (3), article nº 1054 10.3390/en16031054 1996-1073 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
MDPI |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
MDPI |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799131597791821824 |