Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/47620 |
Resumo: | Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species. |
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Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050BiodiversityBiological invasionsBusiness-as-usual scenarioFuture predictionsGlobalModellingSpecies richnessTrendsBiological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.WileyRepositório da Universidade de LisboaSeebens, HannoBacher, SvenBlackburn, Tim M.Capinha, CésarDawson, WayneDullinger, StefanGenovesi, PieroHulme, Philip E.Kleunen, MarkKühn, IngolfJeschke, Jonathan M.Lenzner, BerndLiebhold, Andrew M.Pattison, ZarahPergl, JanPyšek, PetrWinter, MartenEssl, Franz2021-04-30T11:48:09Z20202020-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/47620engSeebens, H., Bacher, S., Blackburn, T. M., Capinha, C., Dawson, W., Dullinger, S., ... & Essl, F. (2021). Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050. Global change biology, 27(5), 970-982. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.153331365-248610.1111/gcb.15333info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:50:40Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/47620Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:59:37.806035Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050 |
title |
Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050 |
spellingShingle |
Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050 Seebens, Hanno Biodiversity Biological invasions Business-as-usual scenario Future predictions Global Modelling Species richness Trends |
title_short |
Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050 |
title_full |
Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050 |
title_fullStr |
Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050 |
title_sort |
Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050 |
author |
Seebens, Hanno |
author_facet |
Seebens, Hanno Bacher, Sven Blackburn, Tim M. Capinha, César Dawson, Wayne Dullinger, Stefan Genovesi, Piero Hulme, Philip E. Kleunen, Mark Kühn, Ingolf Jeschke, Jonathan M. Lenzner, Bernd Liebhold, Andrew M. Pattison, Zarah Pergl, Jan Pyšek, Petr Winter, Marten Essl, Franz |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Bacher, Sven Blackburn, Tim M. Capinha, César Dawson, Wayne Dullinger, Stefan Genovesi, Piero Hulme, Philip E. Kleunen, Mark Kühn, Ingolf Jeschke, Jonathan M. Lenzner, Bernd Liebhold, Andrew M. Pattison, Zarah Pergl, Jan Pyšek, Petr Winter, Marten Essl, Franz |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Seebens, Hanno Bacher, Sven Blackburn, Tim M. Capinha, César Dawson, Wayne Dullinger, Stefan Genovesi, Piero Hulme, Philip E. Kleunen, Mark Kühn, Ingolf Jeschke, Jonathan M. Lenzner, Bernd Liebhold, Andrew M. Pattison, Zarah Pergl, Jan Pyšek, Petr Winter, Marten Essl, Franz |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Biodiversity Biological invasions Business-as-usual scenario Future predictions Global Modelling Species richness Trends |
topic |
Biodiversity Biological invasions Business-as-usual scenario Future predictions Global Modelling Species richness Trends |
description |
Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z 2021-04-30T11:48:09Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/47620 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/47620 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Seebens, H., Bacher, S., Blackburn, T. M., Capinha, C., Dawson, W., Dullinger, S., ... & Essl, F. (2021). Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050. Global change biology, 27(5), 970-982. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15333 1365-2486 10.1111/gcb.15333 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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