Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Carvalho-Santos, Claudia
Data de Publicação: 2019
Outros Autores: Marcos, Bruno, Nunes, João, Regos, Adrián, Palazzi, Elisa, Terzago, Silvia, Monteiro, Antonio, Honrado, João
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/42797
Resumo: Fires have significant impacts on soil erosion and water supply that may be exacerbated by future climate. The aims of this study were: To simulate the effects of a large fire event in the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model previously calibrated to a medium-sized watershed in Portugal; and to predict the hydrological impacts of large fires and future climate on water supply and soil erosion. For this, post-fire recovery was parametrized in SWAT based on satellite information, namely, the fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) calculated from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The impact of future climate was based on four regional climate models under the stabilization (RCP 4.5) and high emission (RCP 8.5) scenarios, focusing on mid-century projections (2020–2049) compared to a historical period (1970–1999). Future large fire events (>3000 ha) were predicted from a multiple linear regression model, which uses the daily severity rating (DSR) fire weather index, precipitation anomaly, and burnt area in the previous three years; and subsequently simulated in SWAT under each climate model/scenario. Results suggest that time series of satellite indices are useful to inform SWAT about vegetation growth and post-fire recovery processes. Different land cover types require different time periods for returning to the pre-fire fraction of vegetation cover, ranging from 3 years for pines, eucalypts, and shrubs, to 6 years for sparsely vegetated low scrub. Future climate conditions are expected to include an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation with marked uneven seasonal distribution, and this will likely trigger the growth of burnt area and an increased frequency of large fires, even considering differences across climate models. The future seasonal pattern of precipitation will have a strong influence on river discharge, with less water in the river during spring, summer, and autumn, but more discharge in winter, the latter being exacerbated under the large fire scenario. Overall, the decrease in water supply is more influenced by climate change, whereas soil erosion increase is more dependent on fire, although with a slight increase under climate change. These results emphasize the need for adaptation measures that target the combined hydrological consequences of future climate, fires, and post-fire vegetation dynamics.
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spelling Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite DataFuture climateFireHydrological impactsPost-fire recoverySatellite dataSWAT modelFires have significant impacts on soil erosion and water supply that may be exacerbated by future climate. The aims of this study were: To simulate the effects of a large fire event in the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model previously calibrated to a medium-sized watershed in Portugal; and to predict the hydrological impacts of large fires and future climate on water supply and soil erosion. For this, post-fire recovery was parametrized in SWAT based on satellite information, namely, the fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) calculated from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The impact of future climate was based on four regional climate models under the stabilization (RCP 4.5) and high emission (RCP 8.5) scenarios, focusing on mid-century projections (2020–2049) compared to a historical period (1970–1999). Future large fire events (>3000 ha) were predicted from a multiple linear regression model, which uses the daily severity rating (DSR) fire weather index, precipitation anomaly, and burnt area in the previous three years; and subsequently simulated in SWAT under each climate model/scenario. Results suggest that time series of satellite indices are useful to inform SWAT about vegetation growth and post-fire recovery processes. Different land cover types require different time periods for returning to the pre-fire fraction of vegetation cover, ranging from 3 years for pines, eucalypts, and shrubs, to 6 years for sparsely vegetated low scrub. Future climate conditions are expected to include an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation with marked uneven seasonal distribution, and this will likely trigger the growth of burnt area and an increased frequency of large fires, even considering differences across climate models. The future seasonal pattern of precipitation will have a strong influence on river discharge, with less water in the river during spring, summer, and autumn, but more discharge in winter, the latter being exacerbated under the large fire scenario. Overall, the decrease in water supply is more influenced by climate change, whereas soil erosion increase is more dependent on fire, although with a slight increase under climate change. These results emphasize the need for adaptation measures that target the combined hydrological consequences of future climate, fires, and post-fire vegetation dynamics.MDPIRepositório da Universidade de LisboaCarvalho-Santos, ClaudiaMarcos, BrunoNunes, JoãoRegos, AdriánPalazzi, ElisaTerzago, SilviaMonteiro, AntonioHonrado, João2020-04-08T16:50:26Z20192019-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/42797engCarvalho-Santos, C.; Marcos, B.; Nunes, J.P.; Regos, A.; Palazzi, E.; Terzago, S.; Monteiro, A.T.; Honrado, J.P. Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data. Remote Sens. 2019, 11, 2832. Doi: 10.3390/rs112328322072-429210.3390/rs11232832info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:42:56Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/42797Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:55:45.070881Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data
title Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data
spellingShingle Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data
Carvalho-Santos, Claudia
Future climate
Fire
Hydrological impacts
Post-fire recovery
Satellite data
SWAT model
title_short Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data
title_full Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data
title_fullStr Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data
title_full_unstemmed Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data
title_sort Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data
author Carvalho-Santos, Claudia
author_facet Carvalho-Santos, Claudia
Marcos, Bruno
Nunes, João
Regos, Adrián
Palazzi, Elisa
Terzago, Silvia
Monteiro, Antonio
Honrado, João
author_role author
author2 Marcos, Bruno
Nunes, João
Regos, Adrián
Palazzi, Elisa
Terzago, Silvia
Monteiro, Antonio
Honrado, João
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Carvalho-Santos, Claudia
Marcos, Bruno
Nunes, João
Regos, Adrián
Palazzi, Elisa
Terzago, Silvia
Monteiro, Antonio
Honrado, João
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Future climate
Fire
Hydrological impacts
Post-fire recovery
Satellite data
SWAT model
topic Future climate
Fire
Hydrological impacts
Post-fire recovery
Satellite data
SWAT model
description Fires have significant impacts on soil erosion and water supply that may be exacerbated by future climate. The aims of this study were: To simulate the effects of a large fire event in the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model previously calibrated to a medium-sized watershed in Portugal; and to predict the hydrological impacts of large fires and future climate on water supply and soil erosion. For this, post-fire recovery was parametrized in SWAT based on satellite information, namely, the fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) calculated from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The impact of future climate was based on four regional climate models under the stabilization (RCP 4.5) and high emission (RCP 8.5) scenarios, focusing on mid-century projections (2020–2049) compared to a historical period (1970–1999). Future large fire events (>3000 ha) were predicted from a multiple linear regression model, which uses the daily severity rating (DSR) fire weather index, precipitation anomaly, and burnt area in the previous three years; and subsequently simulated in SWAT under each climate model/scenario. Results suggest that time series of satellite indices are useful to inform SWAT about vegetation growth and post-fire recovery processes. Different land cover types require different time periods for returning to the pre-fire fraction of vegetation cover, ranging from 3 years for pines, eucalypts, and shrubs, to 6 years for sparsely vegetated low scrub. Future climate conditions are expected to include an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation with marked uneven seasonal distribution, and this will likely trigger the growth of burnt area and an increased frequency of large fires, even considering differences across climate models. The future seasonal pattern of precipitation will have a strong influence on river discharge, with less water in the river during spring, summer, and autumn, but more discharge in winter, the latter being exacerbated under the large fire scenario. Overall, the decrease in water supply is more influenced by climate change, whereas soil erosion increase is more dependent on fire, although with a slight increase under climate change. These results emphasize the need for adaptation measures that target the combined hydrological consequences of future climate, fires, and post-fire vegetation dynamics.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
2019-01-01T00:00:00Z
2020-04-08T16:50:26Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10451/42797
url http://hdl.handle.net/10451/42797
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Carvalho-Santos, C.; Marcos, B.; Nunes, J.P.; Regos, A.; Palazzi, E.; Terzago, S.; Monteiro, A.T.; Honrado, J.P. Hydrological Impacts of Large Fires and Future Climate: Modeling Approach Supported by Satellite Data. Remote Sens. 2019, 11, 2832. Doi: 10.3390/rs11232832
2072-4292
10.3390/rs11232832
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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