Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862021000300339 |
Resumo: | Abstract Regional climate models (RCM) are the main tools for climate change impacts assessment in hydrological studies. These models, however, often show biases when compared to historical observations. Bias Correction (BC) are useful techniques to improve climate projection outputs. This study presents a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to compare combinations of RCM with selected BC methods. The comparison was based on the modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE’). The criteria evaluated the general capability of models in reproducing the observed data main statistics. Other criteria evaluated were the relevant aspects for hydrological studies, such as seasonality, dry and wet periods. We applied four BC methods in four RCM monthly rainfall outputs from 1961 to 2005 in the Piracicaba river basin. The Linear Scaling (LS) method showed higher improvements in the general performance of the models. The RCM Eta-HadGEM2-ES, corrected with Standardized Reconstruction (SdRc) method, achieved the best results when compared to the observed precipitation. The bias corrected projected monthly precipitation (2006-2098) preserved the main signal of climate change effects when compared to the original outputs regarding annual rainfall. However, SdRc produced significant decrease in monthly average rainfall, higher than 45% for July, August and September for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. |
id |
SBMET-1_332b20d9645b6467f387bf1532c2e295 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:scielo:S0102-77862021000300339 |
network_acronym_str |
SBMET-1 |
network_name_str |
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River BasinEta-RCMbias correctionstandardized reconstructionAbstract Regional climate models (RCM) are the main tools for climate change impacts assessment in hydrological studies. These models, however, often show biases when compared to historical observations. Bias Correction (BC) are useful techniques to improve climate projection outputs. This study presents a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to compare combinations of RCM with selected BC methods. The comparison was based on the modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE’). The criteria evaluated the general capability of models in reproducing the observed data main statistics. Other criteria evaluated were the relevant aspects for hydrological studies, such as seasonality, dry and wet periods. We applied four BC methods in four RCM monthly rainfall outputs from 1961 to 2005 in the Piracicaba river basin. The Linear Scaling (LS) method showed higher improvements in the general performance of the models. The RCM Eta-HadGEM2-ES, corrected with Standardized Reconstruction (SdRc) method, achieved the best results when compared to the observed precipitation. The bias corrected projected monthly precipitation (2006-2098) preserved the main signal of climate change effects when compared to the original outputs regarding annual rainfall. However, SdRc produced significant decrease in monthly average rainfall, higher than 45% for July, August and September for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia2021-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862021000300339Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia v.36 n.3 2021reponame:Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online)instname:Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia (SBMET)instacron:SBMET10.1590/0102-77863630068info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBillerbeck,CamilaSilva,Ligia Monteiro daMarcellini,Silvana SuskoMéllo Junior,Arisvaldoeng2021-10-04T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0102-77862021000300339Revistahttp://www.rbmet.org.br/port/index.phpONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||rbmet@rbmet.org.br1982-43510102-7786opendoar:2021-10-04T00:00Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) - Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia (SBMET)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin |
title |
Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin |
spellingShingle |
Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin Billerbeck,Camila Eta-RCM bias correction standardized reconstruction |
title_short |
Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin |
title_full |
Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin |
title_fullStr |
Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin |
title_sort |
Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin |
author |
Billerbeck,Camila |
author_facet |
Billerbeck,Camila Silva,Ligia Monteiro da Marcellini,Silvana Susko Méllo Junior,Arisvaldo |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Silva,Ligia Monteiro da Marcellini,Silvana Susko Méllo Junior,Arisvaldo |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Billerbeck,Camila Silva,Ligia Monteiro da Marcellini,Silvana Susko Méllo Junior,Arisvaldo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Eta-RCM bias correction standardized reconstruction |
topic |
Eta-RCM bias correction standardized reconstruction |
description |
Abstract Regional climate models (RCM) are the main tools for climate change impacts assessment in hydrological studies. These models, however, often show biases when compared to historical observations. Bias Correction (BC) are useful techniques to improve climate projection outputs. This study presents a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to compare combinations of RCM with selected BC methods. The comparison was based on the modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE’). The criteria evaluated the general capability of models in reproducing the observed data main statistics. Other criteria evaluated were the relevant aspects for hydrological studies, such as seasonality, dry and wet periods. We applied four BC methods in four RCM monthly rainfall outputs from 1961 to 2005 in the Piracicaba river basin. The Linear Scaling (LS) method showed higher improvements in the general performance of the models. The RCM Eta-HadGEM2-ES, corrected with Standardized Reconstruction (SdRc) method, achieved the best results when compared to the observed precipitation. The bias corrected projected monthly precipitation (2006-2098) preserved the main signal of climate change effects when compared to the original outputs regarding annual rainfall. However, SdRc produced significant decrease in monthly average rainfall, higher than 45% for July, August and September for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-09-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862021000300339 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862021000300339 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0102-77863630068 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia v.36 n.3 2021 reponame:Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) instname:Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia (SBMET) instacron:SBMET |
instname_str |
Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia (SBMET) |
instacron_str |
SBMET |
institution |
SBMET |
reponame_str |
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) |
collection |
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) - Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia (SBMET) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||rbmet@rbmet.org.br |
_version_ |
1752122087192920064 |