Statistical inference for non-homogeneous Poisson process with competing risks: a repairable systems approach under power-law process

• Autor(a) principal: Almeida, Marco Pollo
• Data de Publicação: 2019
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFSCAR
• Texto Completo: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/11925
• topic: Riscos competitivos; Processo de lei de potencia; Processo de Poisson não-homogêneo; Inferência Bayesiana; Sistemas reparáveis; Competing risks; Power-law process; Non-homogeneous Poisson process; Bayesian inference; Repairable system; CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA; CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA::ESTATISTICA::INFERENCIA NAO-PARAMETRICA; CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA::ESTATISTICA::INFERENCIA PARAMETRICA

In this thesis, the main objective is to study certain aspects of modeling failure time data of repairable systems under a competing risks framework. We consider two different models and propose more efficient Bayesian methods for estimating the parameters. In the first model, we discuss inferential procedures based on an objective Bayesian approach for analyzing failures from a single repairable system under independent competing risks. We examined the scenario where a minimal repair is performed at each failure, thereby resulting in that each failure mode appropriately follows a power-law intensity. Besides, it is proposed that the power-law intensity is reparametrized in terms of orthogonal parameters. Then, we derived two objective priors known as the Jeffreys prior and reference prior. Moreover, posterior distributions based on these priors will be obtained in order to find properties which may be optimal in the sense that, for some cases, we prove that these posterior distributions are proper and are also matching priors. In addition, in some cases, unbiased Bayesian estimators of simple closed-form expressions are derived. In the second model, we analyze data from multiple repairable systems under the presence of dependent competing risks. In order to model this dependence structure, we adopted the well-known shared frailty model. This model provides a suitable theoretical basis for generating dependence between the components’ failure times in the dependent competing risks model. It is known that the dependence effect in this scenario influences the estimates of the model parameters. Hence, under the assumption that the cause-specific intensities follow a PLP, we propose a frailty-induced dependence approach to incorporate the dependence among the cause-specific recurrent processes. Moreover, the misspecification of the frailty distribution may lead to errors when estimating the parameters of interest. Because of this, we considered a Bayesian nonparametric approach to model the frailty density in order to offer more flexibility and to provide consistent estimates for the PLP model, as well as insights about heterogeneity among the systems. Both simulation studies and real case studies are provided to illustrate the proposed approaches and demonstrate their validity.