Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Marcolino, Lucas A.
Data de Publicação: 2023
Tipo de documento: Trabalho de conclusão de curso
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFSCAR
Texto Completo: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/18539
Resumo: With the emergence of flex-fuel vehicles, consumers now have a varied choice of fuels, adopting economic and environmental criteria when choosing between gasoline, ethanol and diesel. This factor resulted in fuel price speculation, which affected both consumption and the Government's policies to contain inflationary processes in recent years. The main objective of this work was to discuss and date the presence of speculative bubbles in the prices of gasoline, ethanol, diesel and LPG in the five regions of Brazil, using the Generalized Supreme Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) and GSADF Panel models for data in regional panel. The average resale prices made available by the National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP) were used, with a weekly frequency starting on December 30, 2012 and ending on December 4, 2022. In the development, a historical survey was carried out and empirical studies of recent studies regarding different bubble detection methods for different assets. The panel models presented statistically significant results and made it possible to date bubbles for the five Brazilian regions, with periods of explosiveness in 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2021, indicating long periods of duration until the collapse of the bubbles. The results confirmed initial expectations and validated recent global events that would theoretically affect agents' speculative behavior.
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spelling Marcolino, Lucas A.Silva, Geraldo E. Jr.http://lattes.cnpq.br/5138808982229139http://lattes.cnpq.br/31765220949806150000-0001-8891-36960000-0002-7110-4689154c8929-2ec3-459f-8297-be4aeab4db022023-09-12T11:56:23Z2023-09-12T11:56:23Z2023-08-31MARCOLINO, Lucas A.. Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis. 2023. Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (Graduação em Ciências Econômicas) – Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Sorocaba, 2023. Disponível em: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/18539.https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/18539With the emergence of flex-fuel vehicles, consumers now have a varied choice of fuels, adopting economic and environmental criteria when choosing between gasoline, ethanol and diesel. This factor resulted in fuel price speculation, which affected both consumption and the Government's policies to contain inflationary processes in recent years. The main objective of this work was to discuss and date the presence of speculative bubbles in the prices of gasoline, ethanol, diesel and LPG in the five regions of Brazil, using the Generalized Supreme Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) and GSADF Panel models for data in regional panel. The average resale prices made available by the National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP) were used, with a weekly frequency starting on December 30, 2012 and ending on December 4, 2022. In the development, a historical survey was carried out and empirical studies of recent studies regarding different bubble detection methods for different assets. The panel models presented statistically significant results and made it possible to date bubbles for the five Brazilian regions, with periods of explosiveness in 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2021, indicating long periods of duration until the collapse of the bubbles. The results confirmed initial expectations and validated recent global events that would theoretically affect agents' speculative behavior.Com o surgimento dos veículos flex-fuel, os consumidores passaram a ter uma opção variada de combustíveis, adotando critérios econômicos e ambientais na escolha entre gasolina, etanol e diesel. Este fator resultou na especulação de preços dos combustíveis, o que afetou tanto o consumo quanto as políticas do Governo para conter processos inflacionários nos últimos anos. O presente trabalho teve como principal objetivo discutir e datar a presença de bolhas especulativas nos preços da gasolina, etanol, diesel e GLP nas cinco regiões do Brasil, utilizando os modelos Generalized Supreme Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) e Painel GSADF para dados em painel regional. Foram utilizados os preços médios de revenda disponibilizados pela Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP), com frequência semanal com início no dia 30 de dezembro de 2012 e término em 04 de dezembro de 2022. No desenvolvimento foi realizado um levantamento histórico e empírico de estudos recentes a respeito de diferentes métodos de detecção de bolhas para diversos ativos. Os modelos em painel apresentaram resultados estatisticamente significativos e possibilitaram a datação de bolhas para as cinco regiões brasileiras, com períodos de explosividade em 2015, 2017, 2018 e 2021, indicando longos períodos de duração até o colapso das bolhas. Os resultados confirmaram as expectativas inicias e validaram os acontecimentos globais recentes que teoricamente afetariam o comportamento especulativo dos agentes.Não recebi financiamentoporUniversidade Federal de São CarlosCâmpus SorocabaCiências Econômicas - CEc-SoUFSCarAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazilhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/br/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPainel GSADFBolhas especulativasCombustível no BrasilSpeculative bubblesFuel in BrazilExuber packageCIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::METODOS QUANTITATIVOS EM ECONOMIABolhas Racionais no Mercado de CombustíveisRational Bubbles in Fuels Marketinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis600600c30c845f-c12e-497c-b9e4-9d9d281863bcreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFSCARinstname:Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR)instacron:UFSCARCC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8810https://repositorio.ufscar.br/bitstream/ufscar/18539/2/license_rdff337d95da1fce0a22c77480e5e9a7aecMD52ORIGINALMONOGRAFIA - BOLHAS RACIONAIS NO MERCADO DE COMBUSTÍVEIS.pdfMONOGRAFIA - BOLHAS RACIONAIS NO MERCADO DE COMBUSTÍVEIS.pdfapplication/pdf1576871https://repositorio.ufscar.br/bitstream/ufscar/18539/1/MONOGRAFIA%20-%20BOLHAS%20RACIONAIS%20NO%20MERCADO%20DE%20COMBUST%c3%8dVEIS.pdf32f7c06ce988b4a70e84fe9b702f3493MD51TEXTMONOGRAFIA - BOLHAS RACIONAIS NO MERCADO DE COMBUSTÍVEIS.pdf.txtMONOGRAFIA - BOLHAS RACIONAIS NO MERCADO DE COMBUSTÍVEIS.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain117110https://repositorio.ufscar.br/bitstream/ufscar/18539/3/MONOGRAFIA%20-%20BOLHAS%20RACIONAIS%20NO%20MERCADO%20DE%20COMBUST%c3%8dVEIS.pdf.txt5deb573d6f81749a8897ea897594424dMD53ufscar/185392024-05-14 18:32:03.103oai:repositorio.ufscar.br:ufscar/18539Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufscar.br/oai/requestopendoar:43222024-05-14T18:32:03Repositório Institucional da UFSCAR - Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR)false
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv Rational Bubbles in Fuels Market
title Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis
spellingShingle Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis
Marcolino, Lucas A.
Painel GSADF
Bolhas especulativas
Combustível no Brasil
Speculative bubbles
Fuel in Brazil
Exuber package
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::METODOS QUANTITATIVOS EM ECONOMIA
title_short Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis
title_full Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis
title_fullStr Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis
title_full_unstemmed Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis
title_sort Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis
author Marcolino, Lucas A.
author_facet Marcolino, Lucas A.
author_role author
dc.contributor.authorlattes.por.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/3176522094980615
dc.contributor.authororcid.por.fl_str_mv 0000-0001-8891-3696
dc.contributor.advisor1orcid.por.fl_str_mv 0000-0002-7110-4689
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Marcolino, Lucas A.
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Silva, Geraldo E. Jr.
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/5138808982229139
dc.contributor.authorID.fl_str_mv 154c8929-2ec3-459f-8297-be4aeab4db02
contributor_str_mv Silva, Geraldo E. Jr.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Painel GSADF
Bolhas especulativas
Combustível no Brasil
topic Painel GSADF
Bolhas especulativas
Combustível no Brasil
Speculative bubbles
Fuel in Brazil
Exuber package
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::METODOS QUANTITATIVOS EM ECONOMIA
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Speculative bubbles
Fuel in Brazil
Exuber package
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::METODOS QUANTITATIVOS EM ECONOMIA
description With the emergence of flex-fuel vehicles, consumers now have a varied choice of fuels, adopting economic and environmental criteria when choosing between gasoline, ethanol and diesel. This factor resulted in fuel price speculation, which affected both consumption and the Government's policies to contain inflationary processes in recent years. The main objective of this work was to discuss and date the presence of speculative bubbles in the prices of gasoline, ethanol, diesel and LPG in the five regions of Brazil, using the Generalized Supreme Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) and GSADF Panel models for data in regional panel. The average resale prices made available by the National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP) were used, with a weekly frequency starting on December 30, 2012 and ending on December 4, 2022. In the development, a historical survey was carried out and empirical studies of recent studies regarding different bubble detection methods for different assets. The panel models presented statistically significant results and made it possible to date bubbles for the five Brazilian regions, with periods of explosiveness in 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2021, indicating long periods of duration until the collapse of the bubbles. The results confirmed initial expectations and validated recent global events that would theoretically affect agents' speculative behavior.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-09-12T11:56:23Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-09-12T11:56:23Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2023-08-31
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv MARCOLINO, Lucas A.. Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis. 2023. Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (Graduação em Ciências Econômicas) – Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Sorocaba, 2023. Disponível em: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/18539.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/18539
identifier_str_mv MARCOLINO, Lucas A.. Bolhas Racionais no Mercado de Combustíveis. 2023. Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (Graduação em Ciências Econômicas) – Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Sorocaba, 2023. Disponível em: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/18539.
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/br/
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/br/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de São Carlos
Câmpus Sorocaba
Ciências Econômicas - CEc-So
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publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de São Carlos
Câmpus Sorocaba
Ciências Econômicas - CEc-So
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