Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Andriotta, Amanda de Brito
Data de Publicação: 2015
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFSCAR
Texto Completo: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/8341
Resumo: During the most recent decades the Brazilian foreign trade has shown significant changes regarding its pattern of trade specialization. These changes suggest that the country is undergoing into a process of exports reprimarization, caused mainly by the increase of the Chinese demand for commodities. The increase of the share of commodities in trade transactions between Brazil and the rest of the world has happened at the same time that manufactures have lost importance in the nations’ total trade. The new composition of the Brazilian foreign trade transactions indicates the country is following a new pattern in the international market. In addition, not only the country’s exports composition has changed over the last years, but we can also verify changes in the main exports destinations rank list. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the dynamics of changes in the Brazilian foreign trade transactions, focusing on exports, during the period of 1997 and 2003. We divided our analysis in different sectors, destination markets, and different periods to have a better understand of how changes happened. Our main hypothesis is that the reveled comparative advantages in international trade have led the country to the reprimarization process of its exports. Moreover, fewer sectors have shown high competitive levels over the last years, indicating a poor dynamics of Brazilian exports. In order to test our hypothesis, we first calculated revealed symmetric comparative advantages indexes, and then used Markov chains to calculate their probability distributions in different periods. We combined the two methodologies to identify the sectors and groups of technology where the country has higher competitiveness. We could also test for changes in exports composition, identifying which were the sectors and technology groups with higher trade competitiveness, in each period. Our results show that Brazil has been using its comparative advantages in the international trade, and its exports are becoming more dependent of commodities, since this is the group of products with higher revealed comparative advantages index. We also found a general loss of competitiveness in the non-commodity sectors during the analyzed period, which clearly shows that the country is facing a process of export reprimarization. The analysis of trade regarding different groups of countries shows that, even though with different intensities, commodity exports are becoming more relevant to all exports destinations (BRICS, European Union, MERCOSUL, and NAFTA), and it has happened more intensively during the third reporting period (2007- 2011). In addition, we also found that there is an indication that, in the future (ceteris paribus), there will be a possible convergence of exports in sectors with lower levels of comparative advantage. Our findings indicate that Brazil has been losing competitiveness in international trade, even with those products that the country has more comparative advantages in trade.
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spelling Andriotta, Amanda de BritoCruz Júnior, José Césarhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/0086426315229286http://lattes.cnpq.br/10630487353689302017-01-05T13:50:58Z2017-01-05T13:50:58Z2015-06-12ANDRIOTTA, Amanda de Brito. Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas. 2015. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) – Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Sorocaba, 2015. Disponível em: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/8341.https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/8341During the most recent decades the Brazilian foreign trade has shown significant changes regarding its pattern of trade specialization. These changes suggest that the country is undergoing into a process of exports reprimarization, caused mainly by the increase of the Chinese demand for commodities. The increase of the share of commodities in trade transactions between Brazil and the rest of the world has happened at the same time that manufactures have lost importance in the nations’ total trade. The new composition of the Brazilian foreign trade transactions indicates the country is following a new pattern in the international market. In addition, not only the country’s exports composition has changed over the last years, but we can also verify changes in the main exports destinations rank list. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the dynamics of changes in the Brazilian foreign trade transactions, focusing on exports, during the period of 1997 and 2003. We divided our analysis in different sectors, destination markets, and different periods to have a better understand of how changes happened. Our main hypothesis is that the reveled comparative advantages in international trade have led the country to the reprimarization process of its exports. Moreover, fewer sectors have shown high competitive levels over the last years, indicating a poor dynamics of Brazilian exports. In order to test our hypothesis, we first calculated revealed symmetric comparative advantages indexes, and then used Markov chains to calculate their probability distributions in different periods. We combined the two methodologies to identify the sectors and groups of technology where the country has higher competitiveness. We could also test for changes in exports composition, identifying which were the sectors and technology groups with higher trade competitiveness, in each period. Our results show that Brazil has been using its comparative advantages in the international trade, and its exports are becoming more dependent of commodities, since this is the group of products with higher revealed comparative advantages index. We also found a general loss of competitiveness in the non-commodity sectors during the analyzed period, which clearly shows that the country is facing a process of export reprimarization. The analysis of trade regarding different groups of countries shows that, even though with different intensities, commodity exports are becoming more relevant to all exports destinations (BRICS, European Union, MERCOSUL, and NAFTA), and it has happened more intensively during the third reporting period (2007- 2011). In addition, we also found that there is an indication that, in the future (ceteris paribus), there will be a possible convergence of exports in sectors with lower levels of comparative advantage. Our findings indicate that Brazil has been losing competitiveness in international trade, even with those products that the country has more comparative advantages in trade.O comércio exterior brasileiro tem apresentado importantes modificações no que tange seu padrão de especialização comercial, sugerindo que o país vem passando por um processo de reprimarização de sua pauta exportadora, ocasionado, principalmente, pelo aumento da demanda chinesa por produtos básicos. Uma vez que os produtos primários têm aumentado a sua participação nas transações comerciais do Brasil com o restante do mundo, enquanto os produtos manufaturados vêm diminuindo relativamente a sua relevância, há um indicativo de que está se desenhando uma nova inserção da economia brasileira no comércio mundial. Entretanto, não só a composição das exportações brasileiras apresenta modificação ao longo dos anos, mas também se observa um reordenamento dos países figurando-se entre os principais mercados de destino das exportações brasileiras. Diante disso, esse trabalho tem como objetivo investigar a dinâmica das transformações no padrão comercial brasileiro no mercado internacional, sobretudo, das exportações, no período de 1997 a 2013. Acredita-se que a divisão da análise em setores, mercados e subperíodos de anos é capaz de proporcionar um melhor entendimento das relações comerciais brasileiras no comércio mundial nos últimos anos. Ademais, supõe-se que o aproveitamento das vantagens comparativas tem feito o país passar por um processo de reprimarização das exportações, porém poucos setores têm conseguido se figurar em níveis elevados de competitividade, mostrando baixo dinamismo das exportações brasileiras. Para verificar tais proposições, o trabalho faz uso da combinação de duas metodologias: cálculo do índice de vantagem comparativa revelada normalizado e a aplicação das cadeias de Markov, utilizando as matrizes de distribuição de probabilidades. A partir de tais métodos é possível verificar os setores e grupos tecnológicos que o país apresenta competitividade no comércio. Em adicional, é possível analisar as transformações de tais vantagens em níveis de competitividade, identificando a direção com que as mudanças no padrão competitivo está se desenhando. Assim, os resultados demonstram que o Brasil vem tornando a sua pauta de exportações cada vez mais intensiva nos produtos primários, ocorrendo um aproveitamento das vantagens comparativas do país, uma vez que esses produtos são os que possuem índice de vantagem competitiva mais elevado. Entretanto, esse movimento de reprimarização é acompanhado por uma perda de competitividade dos demais grupos e setores que não são dessa classificação. Em relação aos blocos econômicos selecionados, observa-se que, mesmo com intensidades diferentes, as exportações de produtos básicos estão se tornando cada vez mais relevantes nos destinos avaliados, sobretudo, tal processo tem ocorrido de forma mais intensa no terceiro período analisado (2007-2011). Além disso, todas as matrizes de distribuição limite desse período demonstram uma convergência dos setores para menores níveis de vantagem comparativa, indicando que o Brasil vem perdendo competitividade no comércio internacional, mesmo naqueles produtos que o país apresenta maior vantagem comparativa, mostrando uma perda de dinamismo das exportações brasileiras.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)porUniversidade Federal de São CarlosCâmpus SorocabaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Economia - PPGEc-SoUFSCarComércio internacionalVantagem comparativa (Comércio)PrimarizaçãoInternational tradeComparative advantage (International trade)PrimarizationCIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL::RELACOES DO COMERCIO; POLITICA COMERCIAL; INTEGRACAO ECONOMICAPadrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativasPattem of specialization of Brazil's international trade: an analysis of comparative advantages"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisOnlineinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFSCARinstname:Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR)instacron:UFSCARORIGINALANDRIOTTA_Amanda_2015.pdfANDRIOTTA_Amanda_2015.pdfapplication/pdf1662270https://{{ getenv "DSPACE_HOST" "repositorio.ufscar.br" }}/bitstream/ufscar/8341/1/ANDRIOTTA_Amanda_2015.pdfeaa5bc450b58729fcfe628d6d499277dMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81957https://{{ getenv "DSPACE_HOST" "repositorio.ufscar.br" }}/bitstream/ufscar/8341/2/license.txtae0398b6f8b235e40ad82cba6c50031dMD52TEXTANDRIOTTA_Amanda_2015.pdf.txtANDRIOTTA_Amanda_2015.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain267926https://{{ getenv "DSPACE_HOST" "repositorio.ufscar.br" }}/bitstream/ufscar/8341/3/ANDRIOTTA_Amanda_2015.pdf.txt26ca9e1a0b30e6c7a6ca32d64d635d43MD53THUMBNAILANDRIOTTA_Amanda_2015.pdf.jpgANDRIOTTA_Amanda_2015.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg5452https://{{ getenv "DSPACE_HOST" "repositorio.ufscar.br" }}/bitstream/ufscar/8341/4/ANDRIOTTA_Amanda_2015.pdf.jpgba2316373954c8124f9bacfd435f2ccbMD54ufscar/83412019-09-11 02:41:26.522oai:repositorio.ufscar.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufscar.br/oai/requestopendoar:43222019-09-11T02:41:26Repositório Institucional da UFSCAR - Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR)false
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv Pattem of specialization of Brazil's international trade: an analysis of comparative advantages"
title Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas
spellingShingle Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas
Andriotta, Amanda de Brito
Comércio internacional
Vantagem comparativa (Comércio)
Primarização
International trade
Comparative advantage (International trade)
Primarization
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL::RELACOES DO COMERCIO; POLITICA COMERCIAL; INTEGRACAO ECONOMICA
title_short Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas
title_full Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas
title_fullStr Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas
title_full_unstemmed Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas
title_sort Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas
author Andriotta, Amanda de Brito
author_facet Andriotta, Amanda de Brito
author_role author
dc.contributor.authorlattes.por.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/1063048735368930
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Andriotta, Amanda de Brito
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Cruz Júnior, José César
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/0086426315229286
contributor_str_mv Cruz Júnior, José César
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Comércio internacional
Vantagem comparativa (Comércio)
Primarização
topic Comércio internacional
Vantagem comparativa (Comércio)
Primarização
International trade
Comparative advantage (International trade)
Primarization
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL::RELACOES DO COMERCIO; POLITICA COMERCIAL; INTEGRACAO ECONOMICA
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv International trade
Comparative advantage (International trade)
Primarization
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL::RELACOES DO COMERCIO; POLITICA COMERCIAL; INTEGRACAO ECONOMICA
description During the most recent decades the Brazilian foreign trade has shown significant changes regarding its pattern of trade specialization. These changes suggest that the country is undergoing into a process of exports reprimarization, caused mainly by the increase of the Chinese demand for commodities. The increase of the share of commodities in trade transactions between Brazil and the rest of the world has happened at the same time that manufactures have lost importance in the nations’ total trade. The new composition of the Brazilian foreign trade transactions indicates the country is following a new pattern in the international market. In addition, not only the country’s exports composition has changed over the last years, but we can also verify changes in the main exports destinations rank list. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the dynamics of changes in the Brazilian foreign trade transactions, focusing on exports, during the period of 1997 and 2003. We divided our analysis in different sectors, destination markets, and different periods to have a better understand of how changes happened. Our main hypothesis is that the reveled comparative advantages in international trade have led the country to the reprimarization process of its exports. Moreover, fewer sectors have shown high competitive levels over the last years, indicating a poor dynamics of Brazilian exports. In order to test our hypothesis, we first calculated revealed symmetric comparative advantages indexes, and then used Markov chains to calculate their probability distributions in different periods. We combined the two methodologies to identify the sectors and groups of technology where the country has higher competitiveness. We could also test for changes in exports composition, identifying which were the sectors and technology groups with higher trade competitiveness, in each period. Our results show that Brazil has been using its comparative advantages in the international trade, and its exports are becoming more dependent of commodities, since this is the group of products with higher revealed comparative advantages index. We also found a general loss of competitiveness in the non-commodity sectors during the analyzed period, which clearly shows that the country is facing a process of export reprimarization. The analysis of trade regarding different groups of countries shows that, even though with different intensities, commodity exports are becoming more relevant to all exports destinations (BRICS, European Union, MERCOSUL, and NAFTA), and it has happened more intensively during the third reporting period (2007- 2011). In addition, we also found that there is an indication that, in the future (ceteris paribus), there will be a possible convergence of exports in sectors with lower levels of comparative advantage. Our findings indicate that Brazil has been losing competitiveness in international trade, even with those products that the country has more comparative advantages in trade.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2015-06-12
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2017-01-05T13:50:58Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2017-01-05T13:50:58Z
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv ANDRIOTTA, Amanda de Brito. Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas. 2015. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) – Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Sorocaba, 2015. Disponível em: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/8341.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/8341
identifier_str_mv ANDRIOTTA, Amanda de Brito. Padrão de especialização do comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise das vantagens comparativas. 2015. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) – Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Sorocaba, 2015. Disponível em: https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/8341.
url https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/8341
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Câmpus Sorocaba
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia - PPGEc-So
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv UFSCar
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de São Carlos
Câmpus Sorocaba
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