PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONFIRMED CASES IN BRAZIL AND EIGHT COUNTRIES BASED ON THE GOMPERTZ NON-LINEAR MODEL
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Tipo de documento: | preprint |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | SciELO Preprints |
Texto Completo: | https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/451 |
Resumo: | This study aimed to evaluate the progress of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Brazil and in eight countries (Austria, China, Germany, Italy, New Zealand Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States) using the non-linear Gompertz model. The data were obtained in official reports of the World Health Organization (WHO) and were submitted to iterative analysis by least squares method to estimate parameters , e through NLIN procedure (SAS version 9.4). The absolute acceleration obtained by the . The acceleration per day obtained by the third order derivative of the predictive model. The asymptotes correlation with quarantine and with the population density of each country was also verified, in addition to the estimation of the correlation coefficient (R2) using CORR procedure (SAS version 9.4). The predictive model showed that Brazil is on upward curve with tendency to reach 2.226.429 people in total (R2=0.9984). The absolute acceleration showed an increase and the acceleration per day demonstrated that only Brazil is in accelerated movement of cases and the tendency is that it will start to decrease after July 4th. The correlations suggest that the quarantine effectiveness isn’t related to its extension (days), since countries with higher population density showed decrease in cases in a shorter restriction time. |
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PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONFIRMED CASES IN BRAZIL AND EIGHT COUNTRIES BASED ON THE GOMPERTZ NON-LINEAR MODELANÁLISE PREDITIVA DE CASOS CONFIRMADOS DE COVID-19 NO BRASIL E EM OITO PAÍSES BASEADA NO MODELO NÃO LINEAR DE GOMPERTZPandemiaCovid-19Brasilisolamento socialModelos não linearesPandemyCOVID-19BrazilSocial isolationNonlinear modelsThis study aimed to evaluate the progress of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Brazil and in eight countries (Austria, China, Germany, Italy, New Zealand Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States) using the non-linear Gompertz model. The data were obtained in official reports of the World Health Organization (WHO) and were submitted to iterative analysis by least squares method to estimate parameters , e through NLIN procedure (SAS version 9.4). The absolute acceleration obtained by the . The acceleration per day obtained by the third order derivative of the predictive model. The asymptotes correlation with quarantine and with the population density of each country was also verified, in addition to the estimation of the correlation coefficient (R2) using CORR procedure (SAS version 9.4). The predictive model showed that Brazil is on upward curve with tendency to reach 2.226.429 people in total (R2=0.9984). The absolute acceleration showed an increase and the acceleration per day demonstrated that only Brazil is in accelerated movement of cases and the tendency is that it will start to decrease after July 4th. The correlations suggest that the quarantine effectiveness isn’t related to its extension (days), since countries with higher population density showed decrease in cases in a shorter restriction time.Este estudo objetivou avaliar o avanço casos confirmados de Covid-19 no Brasil e em oito países (Áustria, China, Alemanha, Itália, Nova Zelândia Espanha, Reino Unido e Estados Unidos) através do modelo não linear de Gompertz. Os dados foram obtidos em relatórios oficias da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e foram submetidos à análise iterativa pelo método dos quadrados mínimos para estimação dos parâmetros , e através de procedimento NLIN (SAS versão 9.4). A aceleração absoluta foi obtida pelo log de base dos dados observados e a aceleração por dia pela derivada de terceira ordem do modelo preditivo. O coeficiente de correlação (R2) foi calculado por meio do procedimento CORR (SAS versão 9.4), assim como a correlação das assíntotas com a extensão da quarentena (dias) e com a densidade populacional de cada país. No momento, o modelo preditivo sugere que o Brasil está em curva ascendente de casos com tendência a alcançar 2.226.429 pessoas no total (R2=0,9984). A aceleração absoluta evidenciou aumento e a aceleração por dia demonstrou que apenas o Brasil está em movimento acelerado de casos e a tendência é que passe a diminuir somente a partir de 04/julho. As correlações sugerem que a eficácia da quarentena não está relacionada à sua extensão (dias), já que países com maior densidade populacional apresentaram diminuição de casos em menor tempo de restrição.SciELO PreprintsSciELO PreprintsSciELO Preprints2020-05-18info:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/45110.1590/SciELOPreprints.451porhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/451/611Copyright (c) 2020 Kaio Diego das Neves Barroshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessKaio Diego das Nevesreponame:SciELO Preprintsinstname:SciELOinstacron:SCI2020-05-13T01:46:32Zoai:ops.preprints.scielo.org:preprint/451Servidor de preprintshttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scieloONGhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/oaiscielo.submission@scielo.orgopendoar:2020-05-13T01:46:32SciELO Preprints - SciELOfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONFIRMED CASES IN BRAZIL AND EIGHT COUNTRIES BASED ON THE GOMPERTZ NON-LINEAR MODEL ANÁLISE PREDITIVA DE CASOS CONFIRMADOS DE COVID-19 NO BRASIL E EM OITO PAÍSES BASEADA NO MODELO NÃO LINEAR DE GOMPERTZ |
title |
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONFIRMED CASES IN BRAZIL AND EIGHT COUNTRIES BASED ON THE GOMPERTZ NON-LINEAR MODEL |
spellingShingle |
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONFIRMED CASES IN BRAZIL AND EIGHT COUNTRIES BASED ON THE GOMPERTZ NON-LINEAR MODEL Kaio Diego das Neves Pandemia Covid-19 Brasil isolamento social Modelos não lineares Pandemy COVID-19 Brazil Social isolation Nonlinear models |
title_short |
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONFIRMED CASES IN BRAZIL AND EIGHT COUNTRIES BASED ON THE GOMPERTZ NON-LINEAR MODEL |
title_full |
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONFIRMED CASES IN BRAZIL AND EIGHT COUNTRIES BASED ON THE GOMPERTZ NON-LINEAR MODEL |
title_fullStr |
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONFIRMED CASES IN BRAZIL AND EIGHT COUNTRIES BASED ON THE GOMPERTZ NON-LINEAR MODEL |
title_full_unstemmed |
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONFIRMED CASES IN BRAZIL AND EIGHT COUNTRIES BASED ON THE GOMPERTZ NON-LINEAR MODEL |
title_sort |
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONFIRMED CASES IN BRAZIL AND EIGHT COUNTRIES BASED ON THE GOMPERTZ NON-LINEAR MODEL |
author |
Kaio Diego das Neves |
author_facet |
Kaio Diego das Neves |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Kaio Diego das Neves |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Pandemia Covid-19 Brasil isolamento social Modelos não lineares Pandemy COVID-19 Brazil Social isolation Nonlinear models |
topic |
Pandemia Covid-19 Brasil isolamento social Modelos não lineares Pandemy COVID-19 Brazil Social isolation Nonlinear models |
description |
This study aimed to evaluate the progress of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Brazil and in eight countries (Austria, China, Germany, Italy, New Zealand Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States) using the non-linear Gompertz model. The data were obtained in official reports of the World Health Organization (WHO) and were submitted to iterative analysis by least squares method to estimate parameters , e through NLIN procedure (SAS version 9.4). The absolute acceleration obtained by the . The acceleration per day obtained by the third order derivative of the predictive model. The asymptotes correlation with quarantine and with the population density of each country was also verified, in addition to the estimation of the correlation coefficient (R2) using CORR procedure (SAS version 9.4). The predictive model showed that Brazil is on upward curve with tendency to reach 2.226.429 people in total (R2=0.9984). The absolute acceleration showed an increase and the acceleration per day demonstrated that only Brazil is in accelerated movement of cases and the tendency is that it will start to decrease after July 4th. The correlations suggest that the quarantine effectiveness isn’t related to its extension (days), since countries with higher population density showed decrease in cases in a shorter restriction time. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-05-18 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
preprint |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/451 10.1590/SciELOPreprints.451 |
url |
https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/451 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1590/SciELOPreprints.451 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/451/611 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Kaio Diego das Neves Barros https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Kaio Diego das Neves Barros https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
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application/pdf |
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SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints |
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SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints |
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SciELO |
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SCI |
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SCI |
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SciELO Preprints |
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SciELO Preprints |
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SciELO Preprints - SciELO |
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scielo.submission@scielo.org |
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