Assessing social distancing release strategies in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Volpatto, Diego
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Resende, Anna, Anjos, Lucas dos, Silva, João, Dias, Claudia, Almeida, Regina, Malta, Sandra
Tipo de documento: preprint
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: SciELO Preprints
Texto Completo: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/595
Resumo: In this technical note we discuss some measures to release social distancing and their impacts in the epidemiological sense in order to assess the effects on the projections of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil and, in particular, in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The analysis of possible relaxation scenarios for social distancing is a topic of great relevance to aid the estimation of the most appropriate moment for the return to normality in daily life. In this context, we discuss the importance - and possible consequences - of relaxing social distancing at an appropriate time. The results suggest that the adoption of gradual release policies of social distancing is feasible when epidemiological control is assured. On the other hand, in the absence of verification of epidemiological control, both gradual and abrupt relaxation strategies generate a substantial increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths, in addition to evidence of a considerable increase in the time required to eradicate the disease. Therefore, in the scenario where it is not possible to guarantee epidemiological control, social distancing release policies analyzed in this research are not recommended.
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spelling Assessing social distancing release strategies in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro stateEvaluación de estrategias de relajación de la distancia social para Brasil y el estado de Río de JaneiroAvaliação de estratégias de relaxamento do distanciamento social para o Brasil e estado do Rio de JaneiroDistanciamento socialCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Modelos compartimentaisSocial distancingCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Compartmental modelsDistanciamiento socialCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Modelos compartimentalesIn this technical note we discuss some measures to release social distancing and their impacts in the epidemiological sense in order to assess the effects on the projections of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil and, in particular, in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The analysis of possible relaxation scenarios for social distancing is a topic of great relevance to aid the estimation of the most appropriate moment for the return to normality in daily life. In this context, we discuss the importance - and possible consequences - of relaxing social distancing at an appropriate time. The results suggest that the adoption of gradual release policies of social distancing is feasible when epidemiological control is assured. On the other hand, in the absence of verification of epidemiological control, both gradual and abrupt relaxation strategies generate a substantial increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths, in addition to evidence of a considerable increase in the time required to eradicate the disease. Therefore, in the scenario where it is not possible to guarantee epidemiological control, social distancing release policies analyzed in this research are not recommended.En esta nota técnica discutimos algunas medidas para relajar el distanciamiento social y sus impactos en el sentido epidemiológico para evaluar los efectos en las proyecciones de la epidemia de COVID-19 en Brasil y, en particular, en el estado de Rio de Janeiro. El análisis de posibles escenarios de relajación para el distanciamiento social es un tema de gran relevancia para ayudar a estimar el momento más apropiado para el retorno a la normalidad en la vida diaria. En este contexto, discutimos la importancia, y las posibles consecuencias, de relajar el distanciamiento social en el momento adecuado. Los resultados indican que la adopción de medidas de relajación gradual de el distanciamiento social, en una situación de control epidemiológico, es factible. Por otro lado, en ausencia de verificación del control epidemiológico, las medidas de relajación gradual y abrupta generan un aumento sustancial en el número de casos confirmados y muertes, además de evidencia de un aumento considerable en el tiempo requerido para erradicar la enfermedad. Por lo tanto, en el escenario donde no es posible asegurar el control epidemiológico, no se recomiendan las medidas de relajación de el distanciamiento social estudiadas en esta investigación.Nesta nota técnica discutimos algumas medidas de relaxamento do distanciamento social e seus impactos no sentido epidemiológico com o objetivo de avaliar os efeitos nas projeções da epidemia da COVID-19 no Brasil e, em particular, no estado do Rio de Janeiro. A análise de possíveis cenários de relaxamento do distanciamento social é tema de grande relevância para auxiliar a estimar o momento mais apropriado para o retorno à normalidade do cotidiano. Neste contexto, discutimos a importância -- e as possíveis consequências -- de realizar o relaxamento do distanciamento social em um momento adequado. Os resultados indicam que a adoção de medidas de relaxamento gradual do distanciamento social, quando em situação de controle epidemiológico, são viáveis. Por outro lado, na ausência de verificação de controle epidemiológico, tanto medidas de relaxamento gradual quanto abruptas geram substancial aumento no número de casos confirmados e óbitos, além de evidências de considerável aumento no tempo necessário para a erradicação da doença. Portanto, no cenário em que não é possível aferir o controle epidemiológico, as medidas de relaxamento do distanciamento social estudadas nesta pesquisa não são recomendadas.SciELO PreprintsSciELO PreprintsSciELO Preprints2020-05-28info:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/59510.1590/SciELOPreprints.595porhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/595/840Copyright (c) 2020 Diego Volpatto, Anna Claudia M. Resende, Lucas dos Anjos, João V. O. Silva, Claudia M. Dias, Regina C. Almeida, Sandra M. C. Maltahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessVolpatto, DiegoResende, AnnaAnjos, Lucas dosSilva, JoãoDias, ClaudiaAlmeida, ReginaMalta, Sandrareponame:SciELO Preprintsinstname:SciELOinstacron:SCI2020-05-27T02:49:57Zoai:ops.preprints.scielo.org:preprint/595Servidor de preprintshttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scieloONGhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/oaiscielo.submission@scielo.orgopendoar:2020-05-27T02:49:57SciELO Preprints - SciELOfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessing social distancing release strategies in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state
Evaluación de estrategias de relajación de la distancia social para Brasil y el estado de Río de Janeiro
Avaliação de estratégias de relaxamento do distanciamento social para o Brasil e estado do Rio de Janeiro
title Assessing social distancing release strategies in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state
spellingShingle Assessing social distancing release strategies in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state
Volpatto, Diego
Distanciamento social
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Modelos compartimentais
Social distancing
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Compartmental models
Distanciamiento social
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Modelos compartimentales
title_short Assessing social distancing release strategies in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state
title_full Assessing social distancing release strategies in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state
title_fullStr Assessing social distancing release strategies in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state
title_full_unstemmed Assessing social distancing release strategies in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state
title_sort Assessing social distancing release strategies in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state
author Volpatto, Diego
author_facet Volpatto, Diego
Resende, Anna
Anjos, Lucas dos
Silva, João
Dias, Claudia
Almeida, Regina
Malta, Sandra
author_role author
author2 Resende, Anna
Anjos, Lucas dos
Silva, João
Dias, Claudia
Almeida, Regina
Malta, Sandra
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Volpatto, Diego
Resende, Anna
Anjos, Lucas dos
Silva, João
Dias, Claudia
Almeida, Regina
Malta, Sandra
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Distanciamento social
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Modelos compartimentais
Social distancing
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Compartmental models
Distanciamiento social
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Modelos compartimentales
topic Distanciamento social
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Modelos compartimentais
Social distancing
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Compartmental models
Distanciamiento social
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Modelos compartimentales
description In this technical note we discuss some measures to release social distancing and their impacts in the epidemiological sense in order to assess the effects on the projections of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil and, in particular, in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The analysis of possible relaxation scenarios for social distancing is a topic of great relevance to aid the estimation of the most appropriate moment for the return to normality in daily life. In this context, we discuss the importance - and possible consequences - of relaxing social distancing at an appropriate time. The results suggest that the adoption of gradual release policies of social distancing is feasible when epidemiological control is assured. On the other hand, in the absence of verification of epidemiological control, both gradual and abrupt relaxation strategies generate a substantial increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths, in addition to evidence of a considerable increase in the time required to eradicate the disease. Therefore, in the scenario where it is not possible to guarantee epidemiological control, social distancing release policies analyzed in this research are not recommended.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05-28
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/595
10.1590/SciELOPreprints.595
url https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/595
identifier_str_mv 10.1590/SciELOPreprints.595
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
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dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/595/840
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
publisher.none.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
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instacron:SCI
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