Simpson’s paradox: a demographic case study about population dynamics, poverty and inequality

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Andrade, Flavia Cristina Drumond
Tipo de documento: preprint
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: SciELO Preprints
Texto Completo: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/2373
Resumo: Brazil is experiencing a demographic transition marked by regional inequalities. It is possible to assume that aspects related to poverty, development and inequality can reverse the association effects of the demographic transition indicators, typifying a phenomenon known as Simpson's Paradox. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of inequality, poverty, and social development on the Brazilian population dynamics, verifying the occurrence of Simpson's paradox in the demographic transition. Population data from the Brazilian Demographic Censuses from 1991 to 2010 were used, according to age in Brazil and federation units. The correlation between demographic indicators was evaluated, stratifying the units of the federation into groups according to social indicators. There is an advance of UFs in relation to social indicators, although heterogeneity persists. The transition has been occurring in all FUs, with the distance between them persisting, even though it has been decreasing over the years. Simpson's paradox was observed when the analysis was carried out according to the census year, and according to the social indicator, mainly for the year 1991. The main challenge is to understand how the Brazilian demographic dynamics can be analyzed and to understand how the contextual factors change its rhythm, quantum, and pattern.
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spelling Simpson’s paradox: a demographic case study about population dynamics, poverty and inequalityO Paradoxo de Simpson: um estudo de caso demográfico sobre dinâmica da população, pobreza e desigualdadeDemografiaTransição DemográficaPobrezaIniquidadeDesenvolvimentoBrasilDemographyDemographic TransitionPovertyIniquityDevelopmentBrazilBrazil is experiencing a demographic transition marked by regional inequalities. It is possible to assume that aspects related to poverty, development and inequality can reverse the association effects of the demographic transition indicators, typifying a phenomenon known as Simpson's Paradox. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of inequality, poverty, and social development on the Brazilian population dynamics, verifying the occurrence of Simpson's paradox in the demographic transition. Population data from the Brazilian Demographic Censuses from 1991 to 2010 were used, according to age in Brazil and federation units. The correlation between demographic indicators was evaluated, stratifying the units of the federation into groups according to social indicators. There is an advance of UFs in relation to social indicators, although heterogeneity persists. The transition has been occurring in all FUs, with the distance between them persisting, even though it has been decreasing over the years. Simpson's paradox was observed when the analysis was carried out according to the census year, and according to the social indicator, mainly for the year 1991. The main challenge is to understand how the Brazilian demographic dynamics can be analyzed and to understand how the contextual factors change its rhythm, quantum, and pattern.O Brasil experimenta uma transição demográfica marcada por desigualdades regionais. É possível supor que aspectos relacionados à pobreza, desenvolvimento e desigualdade possam reverter os efeitos de associação dos indicadores da transição demográfica, tipificando um fenômeno conhecido como Paradoxo de Simpson. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o efeito da desigualdade, pobreza e desenvolvimento social na dinâmica populacional brasileira, verificando a ocorrência do paradoxo de Simpson na transição demográfica. Foram utilizados dados populacionais oriundos dos Censos Demográficos brasileiros de 1991 a 2010, segundo idade no Brasil e unidades da federação. Foi avaliada a correlação entre os indicadores demográficos, estratificando das unidades da federação em grupos de acordo com os indicadores sociais. Há um avanço das UF com relação aos indicadores sociais, ainda que persista a heterogeneidade. A transição vem ocorrendo em todas as UF, com persistência da distância entre elas, mesmo que com redução ao longo dos anos. Observou-se o paradoxo de Simpson quando a análise foi realizada segundo ano censitário, e segundo indicador social, principalmente para o ano de 1991. O principal desafio é compreender como a dinâmica demográfica brasileira pode ser analisada e compreender de que forma os fatores contextuais alteram seu ritmo, quantum e padrão.SciELO PreprintsSciELO PreprintsSciELO Preprints2021-05-25info:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/237310.1590/SciELOPreprints.2373porhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/2373/4028Copyright (c) 2021 Raphael Mendonça Guimarães; Flavia Cristina Drumond Andradehttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessGuimarães, Raphael MendonçaAndrade, Flavia Cristina Drumondreponame:SciELO Preprintsinstname:SciELOinstacron:SCI2021-05-24T14:23:16Zoai:ops.preprints.scielo.org:preprint/2373Servidor de preprintshttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scieloONGhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/oaiscielo.submission@scielo.orgopendoar:2021-05-24T14:23:16SciELO Preprints - SciELOfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Simpson’s paradox: a demographic case study about population dynamics, poverty and inequality
O Paradoxo de Simpson: um estudo de caso demográfico sobre dinâmica da população, pobreza e desigualdade
title Simpson’s paradox: a demographic case study about population dynamics, poverty and inequality
spellingShingle Simpson’s paradox: a demographic case study about population dynamics, poverty and inequality
Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça
Demografia
Transição Demográfica
Pobreza
Iniquidade
Desenvolvimento
Brasil
Demography
Demographic Transition
Poverty
Iniquity
Development
Brazil
title_short Simpson’s paradox: a demographic case study about population dynamics, poverty and inequality
title_full Simpson’s paradox: a demographic case study about population dynamics, poverty and inequality
title_fullStr Simpson’s paradox: a demographic case study about population dynamics, poverty and inequality
title_full_unstemmed Simpson’s paradox: a demographic case study about population dynamics, poverty and inequality
title_sort Simpson’s paradox: a demographic case study about population dynamics, poverty and inequality
author Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça
author_facet Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça
Andrade, Flavia Cristina Drumond
author_role author
author2 Andrade, Flavia Cristina Drumond
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça
Andrade, Flavia Cristina Drumond
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Demografia
Transição Demográfica
Pobreza
Iniquidade
Desenvolvimento
Brasil
Demography
Demographic Transition
Poverty
Iniquity
Development
Brazil
topic Demografia
Transição Demográfica
Pobreza
Iniquidade
Desenvolvimento
Brasil
Demography
Demographic Transition
Poverty
Iniquity
Development
Brazil
description Brazil is experiencing a demographic transition marked by regional inequalities. It is possible to assume that aspects related to poverty, development and inequality can reverse the association effects of the demographic transition indicators, typifying a phenomenon known as Simpson's Paradox. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of inequality, poverty, and social development on the Brazilian population dynamics, verifying the occurrence of Simpson's paradox in the demographic transition. Population data from the Brazilian Demographic Censuses from 1991 to 2010 were used, according to age in Brazil and federation units. The correlation between demographic indicators was evaluated, stratifying the units of the federation into groups according to social indicators. There is an advance of UFs in relation to social indicators, although heterogeneity persists. The transition has been occurring in all FUs, with the distance between them persisting, even though it has been decreasing over the years. Simpson's paradox was observed when the analysis was carried out according to the census year, and according to the social indicator, mainly for the year 1991. The main challenge is to understand how the Brazilian demographic dynamics can be analyzed and to understand how the contextual factors change its rhythm, quantum, and pattern.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-05-25
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format preprint
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/2373
10.1590/SciELOPreprints.2373
url https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/2373
identifier_str_mv 10.1590/SciELOPreprints.2373
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/2373/4028
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Raphael Mendonça Guimarães; Flavia Cristina Drumond Andrade
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Raphael Mendonça Guimarães; Flavia Cristina Drumond Andrade
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
publisher.none.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SciELO Preprints
instname:SciELO
instacron:SCI
instname_str SciELO
instacron_str SCI
institution SCI
reponame_str SciELO Preprints
collection SciELO Preprints
repository.name.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints - SciELO
repository.mail.fl_str_mv scielo.submission@scielo.org
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