Effects of daylight saving time on accidents in Brazil: A Discontinuous Regression Approach
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | preprint |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | SciELO Preprints |
Texto Completo: | https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/6458 |
Resumo: | Daylight saving time is a policy to reduce energy consumption instituted in Brazil each year from the second week of October. This study aims to evaluate the possible effects of DST policy on accidents in Brazilian federal highways. The data of accidents of the federal highway police used cover the period 2007-2013, aggregated by day and time for each Brazilian state. The short-term effects were first appreciated on the number of accidents in the summer time input transition in states that underwent the intervention, through the regression discontinuity model. The transition to daylight saving time, about the first twenty-four days, reduce the risk of accidents on federal highways by reallocating an hour of morning light for the afternoon. Soon after it was measured the duration of the effect of the same long-term policy in all states through the differences in differences model. Both models have shown that the application of DST policy presented evidence in the reduction of the number of accidents in Brazilian federal highways. To complement the analysis, robustness tests were conducted which determined the effects of previous trends, states with higher risk of accidents, decomposition hours light and final period of daylight saving time. The results showed that the States where the DST policy was used the accidents were reduced by 10 %. |
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Effects of daylight saving time on accidents in Brazil: A Discontinuous Regression ApproachEfeitos do horário de verão sobre acidentes no Brasil: Uma abordagem de Regressão DescontinuaAcidentes em rodovias FederaisRegressão descontinuaHorário de verão no BrasilAccidents on Federal HighwaysRegression discontinuity designdaylight saving time in BrazilDaylight saving time is a policy to reduce energy consumption instituted in Brazil each year from the second week of October. This study aims to evaluate the possible effects of DST policy on accidents in Brazilian federal highways. The data of accidents of the federal highway police used cover the period 2007-2013, aggregated by day and time for each Brazilian state. The short-term effects were first appreciated on the number of accidents in the summer time input transition in states that underwent the intervention, through the regression discontinuity model. The transition to daylight saving time, about the first twenty-four days, reduce the risk of accidents on federal highways by reallocating an hour of morning light for the afternoon. Soon after it was measured the duration of the effect of the same long-term policy in all states through the differences in differences model. Both models have shown that the application of DST policy presented evidence in the reduction of the number of accidents in Brazilian federal highways. To complement the analysis, robustness tests were conducted which determined the effects of previous trends, states with higher risk of accidents, decomposition hours light and final period of daylight saving time. The results showed that the States where the DST policy was used the accidents were reduced by 10 %.O horário de verão é uma política de redução do consumo de energia instituída no Brasil todos os anos a partir da segunda semana de outubro. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar os possíveis efeitos da política do horário de verão sobre os acidentes nas rodovias federais brasileiras. Os dados de ocorrência de acidentes da polícia rodoviária federal utilizados compreendem o período de 2007 a 2013, agregados por dia e hora para cada Estado brasileiro. Primeiramente foram apreciados os efeitos a curto prazo sobre o número de acidentes na transição de entrada do horário de verão nos estados que sofreram a intervenção, por meio do modelo de Regressão Descontinua. A transição para o horário de verão, aproximadamente os primeiros vinte e quatro dias, reduzem o risco de acidentes nas rodovias federais através da realocação de uma hora de luminosidade da manhã para a tarde. Logo após foi mensurada a duração do efeito da mesma política a longo prazoem todos os estados, por meio do modelo de Diferenças em Diferenças. Ambos os modelos revelaram que a aplicação da política do horário de verão apresentou evidências na redução sobre o número de acidentes nas rodovias federais brasileiras. A fim de complementar a análise, foram realizados testes de robustez que determinaram os efeitos de tendências anteriores, Estados com maior risco de acidentes, decomposição em horas de luminosidade e período final do horário de verão. Os resultados apontaram que os Estados em que a política do horário de verão foi utilizada os acidentes sofreram redução de 10% (dez por cento).SciELO PreprintsSciELO PreprintsSciELO Preprints2023-07-20info:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/645810.1590/SciELOPreprints.6458porhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/6458/12301Copyright (c) 2023 Cleiton Franco, Gustavo Ramos Sampaio, Breno Sampaio, Weily Toro Machadohttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessFranco, CleitonSampaio, Gustavo RamosSampaio, BrenoMachado, Weily Tororeponame:SciELO Preprintsinstname:Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)instacron:SCI2023-07-18T18:21:00Zoai:ops.preprints.scielo.org:preprint/6458Servidor de preprintshttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scieloONGhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/oaiscielo.submission@scielo.orgopendoar:2023-07-18T18:21SciELO Preprints - Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Effects of daylight saving time on accidents in Brazil: A Discontinuous Regression Approach Efeitos do horário de verão sobre acidentes no Brasil: Uma abordagem de Regressão Descontinua |
title |
Effects of daylight saving time on accidents in Brazil: A Discontinuous Regression Approach |
spellingShingle |
Effects of daylight saving time on accidents in Brazil: A Discontinuous Regression Approach Franco, Cleiton Acidentes em rodovias Federais Regressão descontinua Horário de verão no Brasil Accidents on Federal Highways Regression discontinuity design daylight saving time in Brazil |
title_short |
Effects of daylight saving time on accidents in Brazil: A Discontinuous Regression Approach |
title_full |
Effects of daylight saving time on accidents in Brazil: A Discontinuous Regression Approach |
title_fullStr |
Effects of daylight saving time on accidents in Brazil: A Discontinuous Regression Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of daylight saving time on accidents in Brazil: A Discontinuous Regression Approach |
title_sort |
Effects of daylight saving time on accidents in Brazil: A Discontinuous Regression Approach |
author |
Franco, Cleiton |
author_facet |
Franco, Cleiton Sampaio, Gustavo Ramos Sampaio, Breno Machado, Weily Toro |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sampaio, Gustavo Ramos Sampaio, Breno Machado, Weily Toro |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Franco, Cleiton Sampaio, Gustavo Ramos Sampaio, Breno Machado, Weily Toro |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Acidentes em rodovias Federais Regressão descontinua Horário de verão no Brasil Accidents on Federal Highways Regression discontinuity design daylight saving time in Brazil |
topic |
Acidentes em rodovias Federais Regressão descontinua Horário de verão no Brasil Accidents on Federal Highways Regression discontinuity design daylight saving time in Brazil |
description |
Daylight saving time is a policy to reduce energy consumption instituted in Brazil each year from the second week of October. This study aims to evaluate the possible effects of DST policy on accidents in Brazilian federal highways. The data of accidents of the federal highway police used cover the period 2007-2013, aggregated by day and time for each Brazilian state. The short-term effects were first appreciated on the number of accidents in the summer time input transition in states that underwent the intervention, through the regression discontinuity model. The transition to daylight saving time, about the first twenty-four days, reduce the risk of accidents on federal highways by reallocating an hour of morning light for the afternoon. Soon after it was measured the duration of the effect of the same long-term policy in all states through the differences in differences model. Both models have shown that the application of DST policy presented evidence in the reduction of the number of accidents in Brazilian federal highways. To complement the analysis, robustness tests were conducted which determined the effects of previous trends, states with higher risk of accidents, decomposition hours light and final period of daylight saving time. The results showed that the States where the DST policy was used the accidents were reduced by 10 %. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-07-20 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
preprint |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/6458 10.1590/SciELOPreprints.6458 |
url |
https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/6458 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1590/SciELOPreprints.6458 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/6458/12301 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2023 Cleiton Franco, Gustavo Ramos Sampaio, Breno Sampaio, Weily Toro Machado https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2023 Cleiton Franco, Gustavo Ramos Sampaio, Breno Sampaio, Weily Toro Machado https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints |
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SciELO Preprints - Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO) |
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