Boletim COVID-PA: Reports on artificial intelligence-based forecasting to the facing of pandemic COVID-19 in the state of Pará, Brazil

• Autor(a) principal: Souza Jr., Gilberto Nerino de
• Data de Publicação: 2021
• Outros Autores: Braga, Marcus de Barros, Rodrigues, Luana Lorena Silva, Fernandes, Rafael da Silva, Ramos, Rommel Thiago Jucá, Carneiro, Adriana Ribeiro, Brito, Silvana Rossy de, Dolácio, Cícero Jorge Fonseca, Tavares Jr., Ivaldo da Silva, Noronha, Fernando Napoleão, Pinheiro, Raphael Rodrigues, Diniz, Hugo Alex Carneiro, Botelho, Marcel do Nascimento, Vallinoto, Antonio Carlos Rosário, Rocha, Jonas Elias Castro da
• Tipo de documento: preprint
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: SciELO Preprints
• Texto Completo: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/2778
• topic: COVID-19; Inteligência Artificial; Projeção; Redes Neurais; Tomada de Decisões; COVID-19; Artificial Intelligence; Forecasting; Neural Networks; Decision Making

Objective: Report the university research and extension product denominated ‘Boletim COVID-PA’ which presented projections about the pandemic in the State of Pará, Brazil, with practical, mathematically rigorous and computationally efficient approaches. Methods: The artificial intelligence technique known as Artificial Neural Networks was used to generate thirteen bulletins with short-term projections based on historical data from the State Department of Public Health system. Results: After eight months of projections, the technique generated reliable results with an average accuracy of 97% (147 days observed) for confirmed cases, 96% (161 observed days) for deaths and 86% (72 days observed) for occupancy of intensive care unit beds. Conclusion: These bulletins have become a useful tool for decision making by public managers, assisting in reallocating hospital resources and optimizing COVID-19 control strategies for the various regions of the State of Pará.