Correlations between Web Searches and COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Locatelli,Marcelo Sartori
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Cunha,Evandro L. T. P, Guiginski,Janaína, Franco,Ramon A. S, Bernardes,Tereza, Alzamora,Pedro Loures, Silva,Daniel Victor F. da, Ganem,Marcelo Augusto S, Santos,Thiago H. M, Carvalho,Anne I. R, Souza,Leandro M. V, Paixão,Gabriela P. F, Chaves,Elisa França, Santos,Guilherme Bezerra dos, Santos,Rafael Vinícius dos, Freitas,Amanda Cupertino de, Flores,Matheus G, Biezuner,Rachel F, Cardoso,Rodolfo Lins, Fonseca,Rodrigo Machado, Silva,Ana Paula Couto da, Meira Jr,Wagner
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-89132022000100314
Resumo: Abstract: COVID-19 rapidly spread across the world in an unprecedented outbreak with a massive number of infected and fatalities. The pandemic was heavily discussed and searched on the internet, which generated big amounts of data related to it. This led to the possibility of attempting to forecast coronavirus indicators using the internet data. For this study, Google Trends statistics for 124 selected search terms related to pandemic were used in an attempt to find which keywords had the best Spearman correlations with a lag, as well as a forecasting model. It was found that keywords related to coronavirus testing among some others, such as “I have contracted covid”, had high correlations (≥0.7) with few weeks of lag (≤4 weeks). Besides that, the ARIMAX model using those keywords had promising results in predicting the increase or decrease of epidemiological indicators, although it was not able to predict their exact values. Thus, we found that Google Trends data may be useful for predicting outbreaks of coronavirus a few weeks before they happen, and may be used as an auxiliary tool in monitoring and forecasting the disease in Brazil.
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spelling Correlations between Web Searches and COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in BrazilGoogle Trendsinfodemiologyepidemiological predictionsdigital healthAbstract: COVID-19 rapidly spread across the world in an unprecedented outbreak with a massive number of infected and fatalities. The pandemic was heavily discussed and searched on the internet, which generated big amounts of data related to it. This led to the possibility of attempting to forecast coronavirus indicators using the internet data. For this study, Google Trends statistics for 124 selected search terms related to pandemic were used in an attempt to find which keywords had the best Spearman correlations with a lag, as well as a forecasting model. It was found that keywords related to coronavirus testing among some others, such as “I have contracted covid”, had high correlations (≥0.7) with few weeks of lag (≤4 weeks). Besides that, the ARIMAX model using those keywords had promising results in predicting the increase or decrease of epidemiological indicators, although it was not able to predict their exact values. Thus, we found that Google Trends data may be useful for predicting outbreaks of coronavirus a few weeks before they happen, and may be used as an auxiliary tool in monitoring and forecasting the disease in Brazil.Instituto de Tecnologia do Paraná - Tecpar2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-89132022000100314Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology v.65 2022reponame:Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technologyinstname:Instituto de Tecnologia do Paraná (Tecpar)instacron:TECPAR10.1590/1678-4324-2022210648info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLocatelli,Marcelo SartoriCunha,Evandro L. T. PGuiginski,JanaínaFranco,Ramon A. SBernardes,TerezaAlzamora,Pedro LouresSilva,Daniel Victor F. daGanem,Marcelo Augusto SSantos,Thiago H. MCarvalho,Anne I. RSouza,Leandro M. VPaixão,Gabriela P. FChaves,Elisa FrançaSantos,Guilherme Bezerra dosSantos,Rafael Vinícius dosFreitas,Amanda Cupertino deFlores,Matheus GBiezuner,Rachel FCardoso,Rodolfo LinsFonseca,Rodrigo MachadoSilva,Ana Paula Couto daMeira Jr,Wagnereng2022-04-14T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S1516-89132022000100314Revistahttps://www.scielo.br/j/babt/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpbabt@tecpar.br||babt@tecpar.br1678-43241516-8913opendoar:2022-04-14T00:00Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology - Instituto de Tecnologia do Paraná (Tecpar)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Correlations between Web Searches and COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in Brazil
title Correlations between Web Searches and COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in Brazil
spellingShingle Correlations between Web Searches and COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in Brazil
Locatelli,Marcelo Sartori
Google Trends
infodemiology
epidemiological predictions
digital health
title_short Correlations between Web Searches and COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in Brazil
title_full Correlations between Web Searches and COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in Brazil
title_fullStr Correlations between Web Searches and COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Correlations between Web Searches and COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in Brazil
title_sort Correlations between Web Searches and COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in Brazil
author Locatelli,Marcelo Sartori
author_facet Locatelli,Marcelo Sartori
Cunha,Evandro L. T. P
Guiginski,Janaína
Franco,Ramon A. S
Bernardes,Tereza
Alzamora,Pedro Loures
Silva,Daniel Victor F. da
Ganem,Marcelo Augusto S
Santos,Thiago H. M
Carvalho,Anne I. R
Souza,Leandro M. V
Paixão,Gabriela P. F
Chaves,Elisa França
Santos,Guilherme Bezerra dos
Santos,Rafael Vinícius dos
Freitas,Amanda Cupertino de
Flores,Matheus G
Biezuner,Rachel F
Cardoso,Rodolfo Lins
Fonseca,Rodrigo Machado
Silva,Ana Paula Couto da
Meira Jr,Wagner
author_role author
author2 Cunha,Evandro L. T. P
Guiginski,Janaína
Franco,Ramon A. S
Bernardes,Tereza
Alzamora,Pedro Loures
Silva,Daniel Victor F. da
Ganem,Marcelo Augusto S
Santos,Thiago H. M
Carvalho,Anne I. R
Souza,Leandro M. V
Paixão,Gabriela P. F
Chaves,Elisa França
Santos,Guilherme Bezerra dos
Santos,Rafael Vinícius dos
Freitas,Amanda Cupertino de
Flores,Matheus G
Biezuner,Rachel F
Cardoso,Rodolfo Lins
Fonseca,Rodrigo Machado
Silva,Ana Paula Couto da
Meira Jr,Wagner
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Locatelli,Marcelo Sartori
Cunha,Evandro L. T. P
Guiginski,Janaína
Franco,Ramon A. S
Bernardes,Tereza
Alzamora,Pedro Loures
Silva,Daniel Victor F. da
Ganem,Marcelo Augusto S
Santos,Thiago H. M
Carvalho,Anne I. R
Souza,Leandro M. V
Paixão,Gabriela P. F
Chaves,Elisa França
Santos,Guilherme Bezerra dos
Santos,Rafael Vinícius dos
Freitas,Amanda Cupertino de
Flores,Matheus G
Biezuner,Rachel F
Cardoso,Rodolfo Lins
Fonseca,Rodrigo Machado
Silva,Ana Paula Couto da
Meira Jr,Wagner
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Google Trends
infodemiology
epidemiological predictions
digital health
topic Google Trends
infodemiology
epidemiological predictions
digital health
description Abstract: COVID-19 rapidly spread across the world in an unprecedented outbreak with a massive number of infected and fatalities. The pandemic was heavily discussed and searched on the internet, which generated big amounts of data related to it. This led to the possibility of attempting to forecast coronavirus indicators using the internet data. For this study, Google Trends statistics for 124 selected search terms related to pandemic were used in an attempt to find which keywords had the best Spearman correlations with a lag, as well as a forecasting model. It was found that keywords related to coronavirus testing among some others, such as “I have contracted covid”, had high correlations (≥0.7) with few weeks of lag (≤4 weeks). Besides that, the ARIMAX model using those keywords had promising results in predicting the increase or decrease of epidemiological indicators, although it was not able to predict their exact values. Thus, we found that Google Trends data may be useful for predicting outbreaks of coronavirus a few weeks before they happen, and may be used as an auxiliary tool in monitoring and forecasting the disease in Brazil.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-01-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-89132022000100314
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-89132022000100314
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/1678-4324-2022210648
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Tecnologia do Paraná - Tecpar
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Tecnologia do Paraná - Tecpar
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology v.65 2022
reponame:Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology
instname:Instituto de Tecnologia do Paraná (Tecpar)
instacron:TECPAR
instname_str Instituto de Tecnologia do Paraná (Tecpar)
instacron_str TECPAR
institution TECPAR
reponame_str Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology
collection Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology
repository.name.fl_str_mv Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology - Instituto de Tecnologia do Paraná (Tecpar)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv babt@tecpar.br||babt@tecpar.br
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